ALI HEALTH(00241) 浦银国际证券·2024-05-29 03:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Alibaba Health with a target price of HK3.38 [3][5]. Core Insights - Alibaba Health's FY24 revenue is projected to grow by 1% year-on-year to RMB 27.03 billion, while adjusted net profit is expected to increase by 91% to RMB 1.44 billion, driven by improved fulfillment cost efficiency and a higher proportion of non-epidemic product sales [2][4]. - For FY25, the company anticipates revenue growth of at least 15% and an increase in net profit margin by approximately 5 percentage points, leading to a net profit growth of around 76% [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY24 revenue is expected to be RMB 27.03 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 1%, impacted by a high base from epidemic-related product sales in FY23 [2][4]. - Adjusted net profit for FY24 is projected at RMB 1.44 billion, reflecting a significant increase of 91% due to improved gross margins and reduced fulfillment costs [2][4]. - Revenue breakdown for FY24 includes: - Self-operated business: RMB 23.74 billion, a 0.6% increase year-on-year, with non-epidemic product sales growing over 40% [2]. - E-commerce platform: RMB 2.33 billion, a 4% increase, benefiting from GMV growth and new acquisitions [2]. - Healthcare and digitalization: RMB 960 million, a 3% increase, despite optimization efforts in lower-margin businesses [2]. Future Outlook - The company expects continued optimization of fulfillment costs in FY25, with revenue growth no longer hindered by high base effects from epidemic-related sales [2][4]. - Management guidance for FY25 includes revenue growth of at least 15% and an increase in net profit margin to approximately 5%, translating to a net profit growth of at least 76% [2][4]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a target price of HK49.4 billion, with an average trading volume of HK$142 million over the past three months [5].