高盛：《市场日报》大选前美元走势

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger for longer" outlook for the Dollar, indicating a positive investment sentiment towards the currency in the near term [2][4][6]. Core Insights - The Dollar remains largely range-bound despite modest misses in US data and solid growth in other regions, particularly the Euro area. The report suggests that the Dollar's high valuation is supported by strong returns on US assets and ongoing structural issues in competing currencies [2][4][6]. - The upcoming US election introduces additional uncertainty, with potential protectionist or inflationary policies posing upside risks to the Dollar. This context is expected to make portfolio flows less responsive to changing growth outlooks [2][6][10]. - Historical parallels are drawn to the 2016 election, where the Dollar showed slight strengthening despite mixed data, suggesting that current market conditions may similarly support the Dollar as the election approaches [7][10][12]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The FX market has shifted focus to global growth, particularly in the Euro area, while the Dollar has remained stable. The report emphasizes that US assets set a high bar for competing currencies [2][4][6]. - The report notes that for the Dollar to drop sustainably towards fair value, there would need to be a significant rise in the Euro, Yen, and Renminbi [6]. Election Impact - The approaching US election is highlighted as a critical factor that could influence the Dollar's performance, with potential policy changes creating market uncertainty [2][6][10]. - The report indicates that historical trends show the Dollar tends to strengthen as elections approach, despite mixed economic data [10][12]. Portfolio Flows - The report discusses how portfolio flows are currently less responsive to the shifting growth outlook, reflecting uncertainty in future trade and fiscal support [2][6][10]. - It is noted that during the 2016 election period, portfolio flows into Euro area equities were largely FX-hedged, indicating a cautious approach by investors [10][12].