2024年中期宏观经济展望：中美内需逆转在即，静待日本升息

Group 1: US Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to show significant weakening momentum in the second half of the year, potentially triggering a rate cut in Q3[1] - A baseline scenario predicts a 50 basis point rate cut in the second half, with a higher likelihood of cuts starting in September rather than July[1] - If inflation and labor market data remain strong, the possibility of delaying rate cuts until Q4 or even no cuts for the year cannot be ruled out[1] Group 2: Japan Economic Outlook - Japan's spring wage negotiations are expected to lead to a gradual increase in wages starting in summer, supporting a recovery in service sector CPI and economic momentum[2] - The anticipated wage increases provide a crucial opportunity for Japan to maintain a 2% inflation rate, with the Bank of Japan likely to start raising rates in October[2] - Despite potential depreciation pressure on the yen, a moderate appreciation against the dollar is expected in the medium term[2] Group 3: China Economic Outlook - China's GDP growth forecast for the year is maintained at 4.9%, with expectations of improved domestic demand in the second half due to policy support[7] - Concerns about the real estate downturn and low inflation persist, with the real estate sector continuing to be a significant drag on the economy[7] - The nominal GDP growth forecast has been adjusted down to 5% due to a slower-than-expected inflation recovery[7] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Risks for China include policy effectiveness falling short of expectations, delays in real estate stabilization, and deteriorating US-China relations[8] - For the US, risks involve the Federal Reserve not responding timely to economic weakness, leading to a recession, or strong economic resilience causing re-inflation and rate hikes[8] - In Japan, risks include wage growth not materializing as expected and ineffective foreign exchange market interventions[8]