高盛：Aerospace & fense_ Aerospace ctures_ May 2024

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the aerospace and defense sector is predominantly "Buy" for several key companies including Textron, Boeing, and TransDigm [7][72]. Core Insights - The overall commercial aerospace market is fundamentally strong, with significant recovery and growth in air traffic post-pandemic. New aircraft orders are robust, driven by both growth and replacement needs [7]. - International air traffic increased by 19% year-over-year in March, with a forecasted growth of 12% for April. Freight traffic also showed positive trends, with an 11% increase in March [8][12]. - Business jet operations are stabilizing above pre-pandemic levels, with strong demand for new jets despite tight supply [7][41]. Summary by Sections Overview - The aerospace end market is currently strong, with substantial recovery in air traffic and high demand for new aircraft orders [7]. Air Traffic: Commercial Travel - International air traffic grew 19% year-over-year in March, with a forecast of 12% growth for April. Load factors for global airlines were at 82% in March [8][12]. Air Traffic: Freight - International freight traffic increased by 11% year-over-year in March, with freight capacity also up by 11% [16]. Airline Fundamentals - Airline profits are improving, which is driving higher aircraft orders. Average airline yields are down approximately 3% year-over-year in Q1 2024 [29]. Large Commercial OE - Boeing reported 7 new orders and 33 cancellations in April, while Airbus had 57 new orders and 5 cancellations. Net orders are consistent with prior mid-cycle periods [33][36]. Business Jet - US business jet operations are stabilizing above pre-pandemic levels, with a 1% increase in EU operations in April [41][49]. Credit and Aircraft Financing - Airline credit issuance was below the trailing twelve-month average, while high-yield airline spreads are trading in line with the high-yield market [54][58]. Economic Leading Indicators - GDP growth is expected to average around 2.7% over the next four quarters, indicating a stable economic environment for the aerospace sector [65].