高盛：Cha battery and components_ Slowg CAPEX pots to sequential recovery; Buy CATL, tion, EVE Energy

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on CATL, Gotion, and EVE Energy, citing near-term catalysts of utilization recovery and earnings growth [6][16]. Core Insights - The China battery and components industry is expected to experience a sequential recovery, with battery utilization recovering from a low of 34% in Q1 2024 to 61% in May 2024, and further improving to 62% in June [2][4]. - Earnings growth is anticipated in the second half of 2024, driven by volume recovery and stabilized unit gross profit (GP), with forecasts of 5% YoY EPS growth for CATL, 20% for Gotion, and 6% for EVE Energy [4][17]. - The report highlights a decline in capital expenditures (CAPEX) across the battery segment, which is expected to lead to a supply-demand rebalancing in the battery supply chain [5][16]. Summary by Sections Battery Utilization and Earnings Growth - Battery utilization is projected to recover to 56% in 2024E, 58% in 2025E, and 61% in 2026E, marking 2024E as the trough of the current down cycle [2][4]. - The report forecasts top-line growth of 5% for CATL, 56% for Gotion, and 23% for EVE Energy in 2H24, alongside significant HoH EPS growth [4][17]. CAPEX and Supply Chain Dynamics - The battery segment has seen YoY CAPEX declines for four consecutive quarters, strengthening expectations for utilization recovery in 2024E [5][16]. - The report indicates that while components have outpaced batteries in CAPEX, a slower supply-demand rebalancing is expected, particularly in the components segment [5]. Stock Recommendations - The report maintains "Buy" ratings on CATL, Gotion, and EVE Energy, while recommending "Sell" on Tinci, Farasis, and Zhenhua due to vulnerabilities to overcapacity [6][16]. - Neutral ratings are given to Putailai and Dynanonic based on fair valuation [6].