高盛：Global Markets Analyst_ The US Election—batg the Asset Market Impacts (Wilson_Chang)(3)

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or asset markets discussed Core Insights - The upcoming US presidential election is anticipated to have significant impacts on asset markets, with various potential outcomes leading to different market reactions [2][7] - The report outlines four baseline scenarios based on election outcomes: Republican sweep, Democratic sweep, Trump with divided government, and Biden with divided government, each with distinct implications for equities, yields, and the US Dollar [3][36] Summary by Sections Election Impact on Asset Markets - The first presidential debate is expected to provide insights into market reactions and asset footprints related to different election outcomes [2][8] - The report emphasizes that the market's focus on the election is likely to increase as the election date approaches, particularly around the conventions and debates [6][54] Fiscal and Tax Policy Implications - The report predicts modest fiscal and tax shifts compared to 2020, with the largest impacts expected under unified government scenarios [11][18] - A Republican sweep is likely to result in a fiscal boost from tax cuts, while a Democratic sweep may lead to higher corporate taxes offset by expanded child tax credits [14][18] Asset Market Reactions - In a Republican sweep, the report anticipates a modest rally in equities, higher yields, and a stronger USD, while a Democratic sweep may lead to modest equity downside and higher yields [3][36] - The report highlights that the market's reaction to potential tariff proposals could be a significant swing factor, potentially altering the expected outcomes [42][48] Tariff Policy Considerations - The report discusses the potential impacts of tariff policies, noting that they could lead to inflationary pressures and affect corporate profitability [21][24] - The market's reaction to tariffs is seen as a critical factor that could influence asset prices, particularly in the context of the upcoming election [42][46] Conclusion and Market Positioning - The report suggests that positioning for a Republican victory may be favorable, particularly in terms of USD strength, while remaining cautious about potential equity downside due to tariff risks [52][53] - The uncertainty surrounding election outcomes and their implications for fiscal policy and tariffs necessitates a flexible investment approach [41][54]