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Investment Rating - The report maintains a selectively bullish stance on commodities, expecting total returns to rise from 13% year-to-date (YTD) to 18% by year-end [3][9][14]. Core Insights - The cyclical outlook for commodity demand remains solid, supported by a gradual recovery in manufacturing and easing measures in China, which positively impacts industrial commodities [9][14]. - Structural opportunities in commodities are driven by disinvestment, decarbonization, geopolitical de-risking, demand from datacenters and AI, and increased defense spending [16][22]. - Specific forecasts include a 15% upside for copper to $12,000 per ton by year-end and a 14% increase in gold prices to $2,700 per ounce, driven by demand from emerging market central banks and Asian households [14][34]. Summary by Sections Commodity Demand and Market Trends - The report highlights solid demand growth in commodities, with a notable increase in China’s LNG imports and container shipping costs due to seasonal demand and geopolitical factors [9][14]. - The report anticipates a structural tightness in commodities due to low investment levels, particularly in green base metals like copper and aluminum [16][20]. Structural Opportunities - Disinvestment in commodity production has led to a significant reduction in oil reserve life and tightness in mining sectors [20]. - Decarbonization efforts are expected to require higher commodity prices to attract necessary investments, with estimates suggesting a need for 2% of global GDP annually to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 [21][22]. - Geopolitical risks are driving demand for gold and critical commodities, with emerging market central banks increasing their gold purchases as a hedge [22][35]. Specific Commodity Forecasts - Copper is expected to enter a significant deficit, with prices projected to rise due to supply shocks and supportive macroeconomic conditions [29][31]. - Gold prices are forecasted to appreciate significantly due to strong demand from Asian households and central banks, with potential upside in geopolitical scenarios [34][35]. - Oil prices are expected to remain within the $75-90 range, with long positions seen as valuable due to geopolitical hedging and roll yield [34][39]. Emerging Trends - The rise of datacenters and AI is projected to significantly boost demand for electricity and critical metals, with annualized growth rates expected to be substantial [25][26]. - Increased defense spending, driven by geopolitical tensions, is likely to support demand for various commodities, including copper, aluminum, and uranium [27][28].