Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental Education Technology (9901 HK) with a target price of HKD 89.00, indicating a potential upside of 40.5% from the current price of HKD 63.35 [2][12]. Core Insights - The report projects a revenue of USD 1.128 billion for Q4 FY2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 31%, aligning with the company's guidance of 28-31% growth [1]. - The expansion of offline teaching points is on track, with a projected 10% quarter-on-quarter increase, contributing to a total annual target of 30% growth [1]. - The contribution from Dongfang Zhenxuan is expected to account for 20% of New Oriental's revenue, with a projected revenue increase of 58% year-on-year to RMB 1.59 billion (USD 220 million) in Q4 [1][2]. Financial Overview - For FY2024, the estimated revenue is USD 4.305 billion, with a projected operating profit margin of 14% for FY2025 and 16% for FY2026, indicating continuous margin improvement [2][13]. - The report forecasts a net profit of USD 770 million for Q4 FY2024, with an adjusted operating profit of USD 69 million, reflecting a decrease in operating profit margin by 3 percentage points year-on-year [1][13]. - The financial data shows a significant recovery from previous years, with net profit expected to rise to USD 421 million in FY2024 and USD 628 million in FY2025 [3][13]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from study abroad preparation is expected to grow by 21%, while high school education and non-subject skills training are also projected to grow by 21% and 59%, respectively [1]. - The report highlights that the offline teaching point expansion will have a minor negative impact on overall gross margin, estimated at approximately -0.4 percentage points [1]. Market Position - New Oriental's market position remains strong, with a focus on expanding its educational services and adapting to market demands, particularly in new first-tier cities and lower-tier cities [1][2].
新东方-S：2024财年4季度预览：教学点扩张符合预期，东方甄选利润率影响可控