港股市场一周回顾

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index fluctuated between 16,044 and 19,706 from April to May 2024, indicating a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio range of approximately 8.0 to 9.8 for 2024[5] - The average expected P/E ratio for the Hang Seng Index is around 9, suggesting a reasonable value of approximately 18,100[5] - The index has seen a cumulative increase of 9.3% since the end of Q1 2024 and a 6.1% rise in the first five months of the year[25] IPO Market - The number of IPOs increased from 3 in April to 6 in May 2024, but the total funds raised dropped from HK$3.1 billion to HK$1.7 billion[6] - In the first five months of 2024, 21 IPOs raised approximately HK$9.6 billion, averaging HK$460 million per IPO, compared to 25 IPOs raising HK$15.8 billion in the same period last year[6] Industrial Profit Trends - In April 2024, industrial profits grew by 4.0% year-on-year, recovering from a 3.5% decline in March[11] - The top three manufacturing sectors with the highest profit growth in the first four months of 2024 were computer and electronic equipment manufacturing (76%), non-ferrous metal smelting (57%), and automotive manufacturing (29%)[12] Economic Outlook - Major developed economies, including the US, Eurozone, UK, and Japan, showed improved economic prospects in Q2 2024 compared to Q1 2024, as indicated by rising composite PMI figures[22] - The Eurozone's composite PMI is expected to return to expansion territory after three consecutive quarters of contraction[22] Energy Sector Performance - The electricity, heat production, and supply sector saw profit growth of 44.1% in the first four months of 2024, following a 71.9% increase in 2023[53] - The increase in renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, has contributed to the growth in electricity supply, with installed capacity rising by 14.5% in Q1 2024[55] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The US PCE inflation rate is being closely monitored, with April's figures expected to show persistent inflationary pressures, particularly in the services sector[44] - The Federal Reserve is cautious about lowering interest rates due to ongoing inflation pressures from services and rising energy costs[62]