环球市场动态

Commodities and Resource Sector - Crude oil, copper, tin, phosphate rock, and manganese ore are expected to perform well under supply constraints, with copper prices hitting record highs in H1 2024 [2] - Long-term supply constraints are likely to keep prices of crude oil, copper, and tin at elevated levels, while periodic shortages may drive up prices of phosphate rock and manganese ore [2] - Crude oil and copper prices are supported by both financial and supply-demand factors, benefiting from inflation and interest rate adjustments [2] - Crude oil price is forecasted to range between $80-90/barrel, and copper price between $9,500-12,000/ton in H2 2024 [2] - Recommended stocks include CNOOC (883 HK), PetroChina (857 HK), Sinopec (386 HK), China Oilfield Services (2883 HK), Zijin Mining (2899 HK), CMOC (3993 HK), MMG (1208 HK), and China Nonferrous Mining (1258 HK) [2] Asia-Pacific Market - USD-denominated bonds saw accelerated issuance in the primary market, with over $2.9 billion issued, mainly from financial and local government financing platforms [4] - Secondary market remained stable, with real estate sector declining, while high-beta tech stocks performed well, driven by investments from Saudi sovereign wealth funds [4] Equity Market Performance - In the Hong Kong market, energy (+1.7%) and healthcare (+1.4%) sectors led gains, while technology and consumer sectors declined [6] - In the A-share market, communication services (+0.6%) outperformed, while energy (-0.7%) and materials (-0.6%) sectors lagged [7] - Notable stock movements included Time Universal (2310 HK) surging 190.9%, while Tiancai Holdings (3882 HK) dropped 31.3% [6] Global Market Trends - US PCE inflation in April showed the smallest monthly increase this year, while Eurozone CPI rose 2.6% YoY in May [12] - OPEC+ extended voluntary production cuts of 2 million barrels/day into Q3 2024, with gradual phase-out over the next 12 months [12] - Nvidia announced plans to launch Blackwell Ultra chips in 2025 and the next-gen AI platform Rubin in 2026 [12] China's Manufacturing and Economic Indicators - China's May manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5, below the seasonal average, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing recovery [31] - Equipment manufacturing remained strong, while raw material manufacturing showed signs of recovery [31] - Services PMI has been below the five-year seasonal average for three consecutive months, reflecting a slowdown in service sector recovery [31] Gold and Silver Outlook - Gold prices hit record highs in H1 2024, with silver prices also rising rapidly [48] - Loose liquidity expectations and geopolitical tensions are expected to support gold prices in H2 2024, with a forecasted range of $2,200-2,400/ounce [48] - Silver prices are expected to benefit from a narrowing gold-silver ratio and widening supply-demand gap, with a forecasted range of $27-35/ounce [48] New Energy Vehicle Sector - NEV penetration is expected to continue rising in H2 2024, driven by new models and price reductions [57] - Domestic NEV sales in Q1 2024 reached 2.089 million units, up 31.8% YoY, with full-year sales forecasted at 12.32 million units, up 29.8% YoY [57] - Global NEV sales are expected to reach 18.27 million units in 2024, up 25% YoY, with BYD (002594 CH) recommended as a key player [57] Technology and Innovation - Apple's Vision Pro is expected to lead the spatial computing era, with MR sales projected to reach millions by 2026 [38] - AI glasses equipped with GPT and Gemini models are expected to launch in 2024, with sales potentially reaching 100 million units by 2032 [38] - Li Ning (2331 HK) showcased innovative products and technologies, reinforcing its position as a leader in product innovation [41]