每周投资策略

Group 1: Global Market Overview - The report highlights a mixed performance in the global bond market, with U.S. Treasury yields showing a slight decline while European and Japanese bonds experienced minor increases [2][12][14] - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with April's non-farm payrolls increasing by only 175,000, the smallest gain in six months, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rising to 3.9% [18][19][24] - The report anticipates that the U.S. Federal Reserve may maintain a low interest rate environment, with expectations of no rate cuts within the year, as inflation remains a key factor in policy decisions [20][27][40] Group 2: U.S. Market Focus - The report suggests that the U.S. stock market may experience a "mini-version" of the post-1995 bull market, driven by economic resilience, although it notes that current conditions differ from the late 1990s [21][30] - Micron Technology is highlighted for its positive performance, driven by industry production cuts and recovering demand for memory products, with expectations for continued price increases in the storage chip market [34][37] - Broadcom is positioned to benefit from the expanding AI-related data center market, with anticipated revenue growth from its software division following the acquisition of VMware [34][37] Group 3: European Market Focus - The report indicates that the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to initiate interest rate cuts, with projections of three rate reductions throughout the year as inflation pressures ease [51][54] - ASML is forecasted to see strong recovery in the second half of 2024, driven by increased capital expenditures from storage manufacturers and demand for advanced semiconductor processes [58][61] - Novo Nordisk is noted for its significant revenue growth driven by its weight loss and diabetes medications, with expectations for continued strong performance in 2024 [58][61] Group 4: Indian Market Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of the 2024 Indian general elections, which are expected to test Prime Minister Modi's political strength, with potential positive implications for the Indian stock market if he secures a third term [66][67] - India's economy is projected to grow by 7.7% in 2023, supported by strong performance in the construction and manufacturing sectors, indicating a robust investment-driven growth model [66][67]