2024年中期宏观经济展望：平波缓进，渐入佳境

Group 1: China Economic Outlook - China maintains a full-year GDP growth forecast of 4.9%, with expectations for domestic demand to improve in the second half due to policy support[2] - Concerns about consumption resilience and infrastructure investment have eased, but worries about the real estate downturn and low inflation persist[2] - The nominal GDP growth forecast has been adjusted down to 5% due to a slower-than-expected inflation recovery[2] Group 2: U.S. Economic Forecast - The U.S. economy is expected to see significant weakening in momentum in the second half, triggering a potential interest rate cut in Q3[3] - A 50 basis point rate cut is anticipated in the second half, with a higher likelihood of a September cut compared to July[3] - The possibility of a recession is estimated at 30%, influenced by strong economic resilience potentially delaying rate cuts[3] Group 3: Japan Economic Insights - Japan's wage negotiations are expected to positively impact service sector CPI and economic momentum, leading to a potential interest rate hike in October[4] - The anticipated wage increases from spring negotiations could help maintain a 2% inflation rate, marking a significant shift after decades of deflation[4] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Risks for China include ineffective policy implementation, delayed stabilization in the real estate sector, and deteriorating U.S.-China relations[4] - For the U.S., risks involve the Federal Reserve's delayed response to economic weakness, which could lead to recession, and geopolitical tensions that may spur inflation[4] - Japan faces risks from wage growth not materializing as expected and potential ineffective interventions in the foreign exchange market[4]