欧央行或先行降息，人民币稳中有降

Market Overview - The market is currently experiencing a stable trend for the RMB, fluctuating between 7.1020 and 7.2734 as of May 2024[8] - Factors influencing this stability include disappointing U.S. employment data, a slight decline in U.S. CPI growth, and the ongoing recovery of the Chinese economy[9] Future Outlook - The RMB is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7.09 to 7.28 in June 2024, with a slight downward trend anticipated[6][13] - The Chinese economy shows signs of recovery, supported by better-than-expected GDP growth and improving foreign trade data[5] Influencing Factors - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.51%, while China's is at 2.32%, indicating a persistent yield gap that pressures the RMB[10][14] - The European Central Bank is likely to lower interest rates in June, which may lead to a stronger dollar and further pressure on the RMB[14] Recent Data - In May, the RMB onshore rate decreased from 7.2416 to 7.2440, a drop of 24 basis points, while the offshore rate fell from 7.2550 to 7.2629, a decline of 79 basis points[9] - The Brent crude oil price averaged $82.07 per barrel in May, down 8.98% from April, contributing to the overall market dynamics[9]