CANSINOBIO(SH:688185)2024-06-04 11:00Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, with a target price of RMB 68.15 per share, corresponding to a market capitalization of RMB 16.86 billion [26][33]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a significant increase in regular vaccine sales, with a revenue of RMB 360 million in 2023, despite a 65% year-over-year decline due to reduced COVID-19 vaccine revenue [22][25]. - The company has a rich pipeline of vaccines in various stages of development, including PCV13i, DTcP, Tdcp, and others, indicating strong future growth potential [7][23]. - The financial outlook shows projected revenues of RMB 840 million, RMB 1.16 billion, and RMB 1.98 billion for 2024-2026, with expected year-over-year growth rates of 136%, 38%, and 70% respectively [20][33]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 110 million, a 14% increase year-over-year, but a net loss of RMB 170 million attributable to shareholders [31]. - The company’s operating cash flow showed a net outflow of RMB 110 million in Q1 2024, with a sales expense ratio of 41%, a G&A expense ratio of 32%, and a R&D expense ratio of 85% [31][14]. - The projected net losses for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 400 million, RMB 120 million, and a net profit of RMB 130 million, respectively [20][33]. Business Segmentation and Revenue Forecast - The company’s revenue from its two meningococcal conjugate vaccines reached approximately RMB 560 million in 2023, reflecting a 266% year-over-year increase [22][25]. - The revenue forecast for the company’s various vaccine segments indicates a recovery and growth trajectory, with significant contributions expected from the meningococcal vaccines and other pipeline products [8][20]. Research and Development Pipeline - The company has a diverse R&D pipeline, with multiple vaccines in clinical trials, including a recombinant herpes zoster vaccine and a recombinant polio vaccine, showcasing its commitment to innovation in the vaccine sector [7][23][9]. - The Phase I clinical results for the global innovative recombinant pneumococcal protein vaccine (PBPV) have shown promising safety and efficacy, indicating potential for future market success [32][31].