全球宏观：2024下半年展望：顺周期交易

Group 1: Economic Outlook - China's GDP growth rate reached 5.3% in Q1 2024, laying a solid foundation for achieving annual economic targets[65] - The global economic outlook is expected to improve in the second half of 2024, supported by easing financial conditions[83] - The importance of domestic demand is rising, with strong policy support anticipated to improve the supply-demand imbalance[42] Group 2: Export and External Demand - Price factors are expected to gradually improve, but uncertainties affecting exports will persist in the second half of 2024[81] - China's exports are projected to receive support as U.S. manufacturers' inventories stabilize, typically leading Chinese exports by five months[100] - The contribution of net exports to GDP has turned positive after five consecutive quarters of negative impact[91] Group 3: Real Estate and Policy Measures - The government is implementing policies to stimulate the real estate market, including lowering down payment ratios and removing interest rate caps[105] - "Old-for-new" housing policies are being expanded to enhance the supply of affordable housing, with nearly 40 cities adopting related measures[109] - The People's Bank of China plans to establish a 300 billion yuan re-loan program for affordable housing, potentially mobilizing 500 billion yuan in commercial bank loans[27]