MNSO(MNSO) 申万宏源研究·2024-06-05 06:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, MINISO, with a target price of approximately $31 per ADR, representing a potential upside of 35% [5][10][19]. Core Insights - MINISO aims to become the world's leading IP design retail group, targeting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of no less than 20% in revenue from 2024 to 2028, with plans to open 900 to 1,100 new stores annually and double its global store count by 2028 [3][16][27]. - The company has seen significant growth in overseas markets, with 2023 overseas revenue increasing by 47% to 4.705 billion yuan, contributing 34% to total revenue [19][20]. - MINISO's strategy includes deepening its IP cooperation and leveraging global partnerships to enhance brand influence and sales performance [3][27][29]. Summary by Sections Global Expansion Strategy - MINISO has entered the "Overseas 2.0" phase, focusing on a dual strategy of cost leadership and differentiation, with an emphasis on interest-driven consumption [16][18]. - The company plans to enhance its presence in North America, Latin America, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Europe, optimizing product structures and improving operational management [17][19]. IP Strategy - MINISO is committed to becoming the world's top IP design retail group, with a goal of IP products accounting for over 50% of sales by 2028 [27][29]. - The company has successfully collaborated with over 80 global IPs, including Disney and Sanrio, to create popular product lines that significantly boost sales [29][30]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 17.721 billion yuan, 21.351 billion yuan, and 25.051 billion yuan, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 2.851 billion yuan, 3.405 billion yuan, and 4.001 billion yuan [5][10][19]. - The report anticipates a gross margin of approximately 41.4% for the years 2024-2026, supported by a growing share of high-margin overseas business [7][19]. Market Performance - The overseas market has become a significant growth driver for MINISO, with strong performance in Asia (excluding China), North America, and Latin America, contributing to 92% of overseas revenue [20][21]. - The company has identified substantial store opening potential in key markets, with significant gaps compared to competitors [22][23]. Supply Chain Efficiency - MINISO's supply chain is a core competitive advantage, with technology enhancements leading to a 15% improvement in overall supply chain efficiency [25][26]. - The company has implemented a digital system that has improved inventory turnover for overseas partners by over 60% [26].