能源金属：供给放量汹涌，能源金属价格狂欢后难逃均值回归

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bearish outlook on energy metals, suggesting a trend towards mean reversion in prices after a period of exuberance [1][2][6]. Core Insights - The energy metals sector is experiencing a significant supply increase, with lithium, cobalt, and nickel production expected to grow substantially in 2024, leading to a continued oversupply situation [19][22]. - The demand for energy metals is projected to decline, particularly for cobalt and nickel, as the growth in end-user applications, especially in consumer electronics, is slowing down [23][25]. - The report emphasizes the importance of recycling and the increasing control of resource-rich countries over energy metal supplies as long-term trends [22]. Summary by Sections Supply Dynamics - Global lithium, cobalt, and nickel reserves have increased significantly, with lithium reserves reaching 28 million metric tons, cobalt at 11 million metric tons, and nickel exceeding 130 million metric tons, marking year-on-year growth of 7.7%, 32.5%, and 30.0% respectively [6][8]. - The production of lithium is expected to grow by approximately 40% in 2024, while cobalt and nickel are projected to see growth rates of 7%-12% and 10%-15% respectively [19][21]. Production Trends - In 2023, global lithium production reached 185,000 metric tons, with Australia contributing 86,000 metric tons, accounting for nearly 50% of the total [8][10]. - Cobalt production was dominated by the Democratic Republic of Congo, which produced 170,000 metric tons, representing 74% of global output [8][10]. - Nickel production in Indonesia reached 1.8 million metric tons, making it the largest producer globally [8][10]. Financial Performance of Key Companies - Major energy metal companies are facing declining profit margins, with Tianqi Lithium's net profit dropping by 17.5% year-on-year in 2023 [2][5]. - The average gross margin for lithium producers has decreased significantly, with some companies reporting margins as low as 1.4% in Q2 2023 [5]. Demand Outlook - The demand for lithium is primarily driven by battery manufacturing, which accounts for approximately 87% of its usage, while cobalt is also heavily utilized in battery applications but has significant use in alloys [23][25]. - The report notes a decline in global shipments of consumer electronics, which negatively impacts the demand for cobalt and nickel [23][25]. Recycling and Government Control - The report highlights the increasing importance of recycling as a source of supply for energy metals, with a target for recycled metal supply to reach over 24% by the end of 2025 in China [22]. - Resource-rich countries are strengthening their control over energy metal resources, leading to potential disruptions in global supply chains [22].