A股年报一季报分析：消费行业业绩好转但整体需求仍待改善，上游行业接近转向补库周期

Group 1 - The overall performance of A-shares is still in a bottoming phase, with over 5,300 listed companies disclosing their 2023 annual reports and 2024 Q1 reports. The revenue growth rates for A-shares in 2023 and 2024 Q1 are 1.50% and 0.11%, respectively, while excluding financials and oil, the growth rates are 2.59% and -0.06%, indicating a return to negative growth since Q3 2020 [29][30] - The overall ROE for A-shares at the end of 2023 is 8.46%, and for Q1 2024, it is 8.04%, which is nearly half of the level at the end of 2010 (approximately 16%) and close to historical lows [31][32] - The report indicates that the consumer sector has shown improvement in performance since 2023, while upstream cyclical industries are nearing a transition to a replenishment cycle. The financial sector continues to face pressure, but the low PB valuation provides some support for market performance [15][48] Group 2 - The report highlights that the overall revenue and profit growth rates for A-shares are declining, reflecting a stronger supply side than demand side, which remains a major contradiction in the current economic recovery. Enhancing both domestic and external demand is crucial for addressing existing bottlenecks [49][50] - The report suggests that industries with potential upward turning points include electronics, media with AI applications, defense and military industries, and non-ferrous metals nearing a replenishment cycle. Additionally, the mid-cap value index is expected to drive overall ROE recovery, supported by multiple important policies [23][48] - The report notes that the inventory turnover days for various industries are generally stable, with most industries in either active destocking or passive restocking phases, indicating that insufficient demand is a primary challenge for economic recovery [10][49]