农林牧渔行业2023年及2024Q1财报综述：困境已过，反转向上

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the agriculture industry, particularly in the pig farming sector, suggesting a recovery from previous difficulties [2]. Core Insights - The pig farming sector experienced a significant increase in output in 2023, with a total of 170 million pigs slaughtered, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.5% [2][8]. - Despite the growth in output, the sector faced substantial losses, with major companies collectively losing 14.1 billion yuan in 2023, and the losses continuing into the first quarter of 2024 [2][13]. - Capital expenditures in the pig farming sector decreased by 14.1% in 2023, indicating a potential slowdown in output growth moving forward [2][17]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - In 2023, listed companies in the pig farming sector saw a total output of 170 million pigs, with a market share of 23.7% [2][8]. - The top 20 pig farming companies, including non-listed firms, had a total output of 200 million pigs, marking a 21% increase year-on-year [2][8]. - The first quarter of 2024 showed a slowdown in growth, with a 7.5% year-on-year increase in output among 18 listed companies, and several companies reporting declines [2][8]. - The sector faced significant financial pressure, with total losses reaching 14.1 billion yuan in 2023 and 6 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2024 [2][13]. - Capital expenditures fell to 40.2 billion yuan in 2023, down 14.1% from the previous year, indicating a potential slowdown in future output growth [2][17]. Feed Industry - The feed industry faced challenges in 2023, with total production increasing by 6.6% to 320 million tons, but the pig feed market contracted due to low prices and financial pressures on farmers [2][23]. - Major feed companies, such as Haida Group and New Hope, reported sales growth, with Haida's sales increasing by 11.7% [2][27]. - The overall profitability of feed businesses improved, with many companies experiencing a rise in gross margins [2][27]. Poultry - The poultry industry saw a decline in prices throughout 2023, with a recovery beginning in early 2024 [3][36]. - Companies focused on upstream operations, like Yisheng and Minhe, showed improved performance in the first quarter of 2024 compared to 2023 [3][39]. - The overall performance of poultry companies is expected to improve in 2024 compared to the previous year [3][39]. Seed Industry - The seed sector experienced good revenue and profit performance in 2023, but growth slowed in the first quarter of 2024 [3][41]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring advancements in genetically modified crops, suggesting potential investment opportunities in leading companies [3][41]. Animal Health - The animal health industry faced challenges due to low demand from farmers, leading to increased bad debt losses for some companies [3][41]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the domestic pig vaccine market if the African swine fever vaccine is successfully launched [3][41]. Pet Food - The pet food sector showed strong performance in 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, with significant improvements in export business and domestic brand development [3][41]. - Major companies are expected to continue focusing on building domestic brands and optimizing product structures for better revenue and profit performance [3][41].