高盛：消费者与休闲公司日_首席官询问；2Q_3Q国内稳定，出境边际上升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Trip.com Group (TCOM) with a 12-month price target of US$64 and HK$500, indicating a potential upside of approximately 24% from the current price [17][16]. Core Insights - Trip.com is expected to achieve a revenue growth of over 50% year-on-year in 2024, driven by strong performance in outbound travel and overseas operations [5][12]. - The company has a robust financial position with approximately US$5 billion in net cash, although there is a mismatch between cash and debt balances, necessitating the issuance of convertible bonds (CB) to raise capital for offshore expansion [2][3]. - Management anticipates mid single-digit percentage year-on-year growth in domestic revenue, with a more optimistic outlook for outbound travel, expecting revenue growth to sustain at over 70% year-on-year [3][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Position - Trip.com raised US$1.5 billion through a convertible bond issuance with a 0.75% coupon, aimed at funding overseas expansion and refinancing existing loans [2][3]. - The company has a total cash balance of US$12 billion, with a significant portion held onshore in China, while half of its US$7 billion debt is outside the country [2][3]. Business Outlook - Domestic revenue growth is projected to be soft in 3Q24 but expected to re-accelerate in 4Q24, while outbound revenue is forecasted to grow by over 70% year-on-year [3][6]. - The company is optimistic about its overseas OTA platform, Trip.com, targeting a revenue contribution increase from approximately 10% to 20% over the next 3-4 years [5][12]. Market Dynamics - Trip.com is experiencing benign competition in the domestic market, allowing for better-than-expected marketing efficiency [6][8]. - The company is focusing on capturing demand from both older and younger generations through tailored travel products and bundled packages, aiming to smooth out booking volumes during peak and off-peak periods [8][12]. Profitability and Margin Outlook - The report anticipates further margin expansion due to a favorable revenue mix shift towards higher-margin outbound travel and improved operational efficiency [6][8]. - The EBIT margin is expected to reach 30.1% in FY24E, reflecting a 0.5 percentage point year-on-year increase [8][12].