2024-06-07 02:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NIO Inc. (蔚来汽车) with a target price of HKD 59.88, indicating a potential upside of 43.9% from the current price of HKD 41.60 [1][2][8]. Core Insights - NIO's Q1 2024 performance was below expectations, with revenue of RMB 9.9 billion, a year-on-year decline of 7.2%, and vehicle deliveries of 30,053 units, down 3.2% year-on-year. The gross margin was 4.9%, with automotive gross margin at 9.2%, slightly lower than expected due to increased promotional efforts during product transitions [1][2]. - The guidance for Q2 2024 is strong, with expected vehicle deliveries between 54,000 and 56,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 129.6% to 138.1%. Revenue guidance is set at RMB 16.59 billion to RMB 17.14 billion, a year-on-year growth of 89.1% to 95.3% [1][2]. - NIO's management anticipates an improvement in automotive gross margin in Q2, driven by increased sales volume and a shift towards more self-developed components, which is expected to enhance profitability [1][2][9]. Financial Overview - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, NIO is projected to generate revenue of RMB 62.85 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.0%. The net loss is expected to be RMB 16.87 billion, with an estimated loss per share of RMB 9.92 [3][9]. - The company held cash and cash equivalents of RMB 45.3 billion as of Q1 2024, providing a solid liquidity position to support ongoing operations and expansion [1][9]. - The report highlights that NIO's monthly sales are expected to stabilize at 25,000 to 30,000 units by 2025, with the new brand, Ladao, anticipated to contribute significantly to sales growth [2][9]. Market Position - NIO's market capitalization is approximately HKD 157.52 billion, with a 52-week high of HKD 122.60 and a low of HKD 29.65, indicating significant volatility in its stock price [5][8]. - The report emphasizes that the battery swapping experience offered by NIO's Ladao brand is a key differentiator in the market, particularly for models priced under RMB 200,000 [2][9]. Future Outlook - The management aims to achieve a target of 100 direct sales stores for the Ladao brand by the end of the year, with a gross margin target of around 15% [1][2]. - NIO plans to launch a mid-to-large SUV under the Ladao brand next year, along with a lower-priced model named "Firefly," which is expected to further enhance its market presence [1][2].