养老地产系列研究（1）：结庐人境大国丰，老有所养夕阳红

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the integration of real estate and elderly care services, highlighting the growing demand for elderly housing as the population ages. The elderly population aged 65 and above in China has increased from 3.6% in 1964 to 15.4% in 2023, indicating a significant demographic shift [2][3][32]. - The report identifies various overseas models of elderly housing, including the differentiated community model in the US, the residential and institutional models in Japan, and the home care and nursing home models in Germany, showcasing diverse approaches to elderly care [2][16][21]. - The future demand for elderly housing in China is projected to be substantial, with potential needs for 1.52 billion to 5.75 billion square meters of new elderly housing by 2050, based on current trends and assumptions [2][42][47]. Summary by Sections 1. Basic Concepts of Elderly Housing - Elderly housing is defined as a new business model that integrates real estate with various services for the elderly, including healthcare, entertainment, and financial services, aimed at providing comprehensive care [11][12][14]. 2. Overseas Models of Elderly Housing - The US has three main models: the differentiated community model, the Continuing Care Retirement Community (CCRC) model, and the REITs model. Japan's model includes residential and institutional facilities, while Germany's model consists of home care, assisted living, and nursing homes [16][21][26]. 3. Current Status and Future Development of Elderly Housing in China - China is transitioning towards a heavily aged society, with the elderly dependency ratio rising significantly. The current number of elderly care beds is insufficient, with only 8.22 million beds available as of the end of 2022, indicating a pressing need for more facilities [32][40][42]. 4. Policy Framework for Elderly Care - The report outlines the establishment of a policy framework for elderly care, focusing on creating barrier-free environments, repurposing existing resources for elderly facilities, and promoting community-based elderly care services [3][4]. 5. Main Models of Elderly Housing in China - The report discusses various models of elderly housing in China, including permanent and seasonal living arrangements, emphasizing the need for a combination of home, community, and institutional care [3][5]. 6. Specific Product Analysis - Taikang Home - Taikang Home employs the CCRC model, offering a unique combination of medical and elderly care services, with flexible pricing options that include insurance and monthly fees [3][6]. 7. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that have established a foothold in elderly services, including developers and property management firms, as they are likely to benefit from the growing demand in the elderly housing sector [3][7].