欧央行6月议息会议点评：“鹰派”降息

Interest Rate Changes - The European Central Bank (ECB) lowered its three key interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%, 3.75%, and 4.50% respectively[1] - The ECB raised its inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025 from 2.3% and 2.0% to 2.5% and 2.2% respectively, indicating limited room for further rate cuts[1] Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate in the Eurozone is at a low of 6.4%, reflecting a robust labor market[2] - The wage growth in the Eurozone for Q1 2024 reached 4.7%, supporting the overall economic recovery[31] Future Policy Outlook - The ECB is expected to adopt a cautious approach to future rate cuts, indicating a "wait and see" strategy rather than a series of consecutive cuts[2] - The current global liquidity environment is characterized as "tight but easing," with the ECB's cautious stance potentially widening interest rate differentials with the US[3] Inflation Dynamics - Despite a successful decline in inflation, there are upward risks due to external factors such as rising international shipping costs and geopolitical tensions[31] - The ECB's inflation trajectory remains uncertain, with the potential for inflation to remain sticky compared to the US[39]