盈利承压延续，资产质量稳健 —— 商业银行2023年及2024年一季度业绩点评

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable outlook for the commercial banking sector, with a focus on the balance between loan growth and interest margin pressures [1][6][14]. Core Insights - The commercial banking sector is experiencing a slowdown in credit growth due to weak demand, with a shift in credit structure towards corporate lending while retail lending remains weak [1][2]. - The net interest margin for commercial banks has narrowed to 1.7% in 2023 and is expected to further decline to 1.5% in Q1 2024, driven by various factors including interest rate cuts and increased loan write-offs [1][6][14]. - The asset quality of commercial banks remains stable, with non-performing loans (NPLs) totaling CNY 3.2 trillion, reflecting an 8.14% year-on-year increase, while the NPL ratio stands at 1.59% as of Q1 2024 [15][18][20]. Summary by Sections Credit Demand and Structure - In 2023, credit demand was weak, leading to a slowdown in credit growth, with the overall loan growth rate at 10.6% [1][2]. - The credit structure is shifting towards emerging and supported sectors, with significant growth in green loans and manufacturing loans, which outpaced the overall loan growth rate [2][3]. Interest Margin and Profitability - The net interest margin has been under pressure, with a decline from 1.7% to 1.5% expected in Q1 2024, as banks focus on reducing deposit costs to alleviate margin pressures [1][6][14]. - Non-interest income has increased to 25.6% of total revenue, as banks seek alternative revenue sources amid declining interest income [6][8]. Asset Quality - The asset quality of commercial banks is stable, with a slight increase in NPLs and a stable NPL ratio, indicating effective management of credit risks [15][18][20]. - The report highlights that the NPL ratio for real estate loans has been rising, with significant exposure to credit risks in this sector [23][27]. Capital Adequacy - Capital adequacy ratios have remained stable, with the average capital adequacy ratio for commercial banks at 15.1% as of the end of 2023, indicating a need for external capital supplementation due to pressures on internal capital generation [35][37][41]. - The issuance of subordinated debt and perpetual bonds is expected to increase as banks seek to bolster their capital positions in light of upcoming redemptions [41][43].