YUNNAN BAIYAO(000538) 海通国际·2024-06-10 05:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Yunnan Baiyao with a target price of RMB 73.36 for 2024, based on a 28X PE multiple [5][15] Core Views - Yunnan Baiyao is entering a new reform stage, focusing on its core business and improving quality and efficiency to drive growth [5] - The company's pharmaceutical business is the core sector, leveraging OTC channels and brand advantages to drive rapid growth [2][11] - The health products business is exploring existing potential and actively expanding diversified channels, with Yunnan Baiyao toothpaste maintaining a 24.6% domestic market share [2][12] - The traditional Chinese medicine resources division ensures strategic supply advantages, with Sanqi herb external sales revenue up 81% YoY [2][13] - The company has a clear short, medium, and long-term R&D strategy, focusing on innovation to drive sustainable long-term development [3][14] Financial Performance - In 2023, Yunnan Baiyao achieved revenue of RMB 39.11 billion, up 7.19% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 4.09 billion, up 36.41% YoY [2][10] - For Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 10.77 billion, up 2.49% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.70 billion, up 12.12% YoY [2][10] - The pharmaceutical business achieved revenue of RMB 6.48 billion in 2023, up 8.16% YoY, with core products showing steady growth [2][11] - The health products business achieved revenue of RMB 6.42 billion in 2023, up 6.50% YoY [2][12] - The traditional Chinese medicine resources division achieved external revenue of RMB 1.71 billion in 2023, up about 22% YoY [2][13] Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts 2024-2026 revenue of RMB 43.23 billion, RMB 46.33 billion, and RMB 49.45 billion, with YoY growth rates of 10.5%, 7.2%, and 6.7% respectively [4][5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 4.68 billion, RMB 5.21 billion, and RMB 5.73 billion for 2024-2026, with growth rates of 14.3%, 11.4%, and 10.1% respectively [5] - EPS is forecasted to be RMB 2.62, RMB 2.92, and RMB 3.21 for 2024-2026 [5] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable, increasing slightly from 26.5% in 2023 to 26.9% in 2026 [4][5] Business Segments - The pharmaceutical business saw strong growth in core products, with aerosol revenue exceeding RMB 1.7 billion, up 15.27% YoY, and branded traditional Chinese medicine products like Pudilan anti-inflammatory tablets and Huoxiang Zhengqi liquid growing rapidly [2][11] - The health products business is focusing on oral health and care products, with core product Yangyuanqing achieving sales exceeding RMB 300 million, up 36% YoY [2][12] - The traditional Chinese medicine resources division is focusing on regional resource advantages, ensuring supply stability and building a leading platform in the industry [2][13] R&D Strategy - The company has established four R&D centers and is focusing on short-term projects like secondary development of listed products, medium-term projects in innovative traditional Chinese medicine, and long-term projects in innovative drug R&D [3][14] - Short-term R&D projects include Gongxuening capsule secondary development and Qixuekang oral liquid, which have made progress [3][14] - Medium-term R&D focuses on transdermal patch formulations and trauma field development [3][14] - Long-term R&D is centered on innovative drug transformation and exclusive products, with a focus on nuclear medicine [3][14]