2024-06-11 01:31Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Meituan (3690 HK) with a target price of HKD 129.00, indicating a potential upside of 14.5% from the current price of HKD 112.70 [1][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Meituan's profit exceeded expectations, with an adjusted operating profit forecast increased by 57 billion RMB (up 18% to 374 billion RMB) primarily driven by improvements in the food delivery and in-store travel segments [2][3][21]. - The revenue forecast for 2024 has been adjusted upwards by approximately 1% due to enhanced operational efficiency and a focus on high-quality growth strategies [21]. Financial Overview - Revenue for 2022 was 219,955 million RMB, projected to grow to 276,745 million RMB in 2023, and further to 331,135 million RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 25.8% for 2023 and 19.7% for 2024 [4]. - Net profit is expected to rise significantly from 2,827 million RMB in 2022 to 23,253 million RMB in 2023, and further to 37,620 million RMB in 2024, indicating a substantial growth trajectory [4]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.45 RMB in 2022 to 3.71 RMB in 2023, and to 5.97 RMB in 2024, showcasing a strong recovery and growth potential [4]. Business Segment Performance - The food delivery segment saw a 24% year-on-year increase in order volume, with revenue growth slightly lagging at 23% [3][9]. - The flash purchase segment experienced a remarkable growth of over 60% in order volume, contributing positively to overall profitability [3][10]. - The in-store travel segment's gross transaction value (GTV) grew by over 60%, with revenue increasing by 30% [3][10][28]. Adjustments and Forecasts - The report indicates that the average user expenditure (UE) for food delivery is expected to improve to approximately 1.3 RMB per order, despite a decline in average order value (AOV) [3][26]. - New business losses are projected to narrow by 30 billion RMB, with specific improvements noted in the preferred selection segment [3][21].