川财证券研究所晨报

Core Insights - The report highlights the need to recognize the new changes in the supply-demand relationship of the real estate market, emphasizing the importance of meeting public expectations for quality housing and ensuring the effective implementation of existing policies [4][6][23]. Market Overview - As of May 31, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.07%, the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.60%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 0.64%, the ChiNext Index declined by 0.74%, and the SSE 50 Index decreased by 0.49% [44]. - The electronic, defense, and coal sectors showed positive performance with increases of 2.84%, 2.43%, and 2.03% respectively, while the real estate, building materials, and comprehensive sectors experienced declines of -4.72%, -4.62%, and -3.58% respectively [44]. Valuation Analysis - The overall market valuation is considered reasonable, with the Shanghai Composite Index's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) at 13.56 times, which is at the historical 23.41% percentile, and a price-to-book ratio of 1.24 times, at the historical 1.38% percentile [44]. - The ChiNext Index has a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 28.72 times, at the historical 4.63% percentile, and a price-to-book ratio of 3.60 times, at the near ten-year 14.03% percentile, indicating a relatively reasonable valuation for A-shares [44]. Capital Flow - Northbound capital saw a net outflow of 56.61 billion yuan this week, with the Shanghai Stock Connect experiencing a net outflow of 18.81 billion yuan and the Shenzhen Stock Connect a net outflow of 37.79 billion yuan [10]. - Year-to-date, the cumulative net inflow of northbound capital reached 830.23 billion yuan [10]. Employment Data - In the U.S., non-farm payrolls increased by 272,000 in June, significantly higher than the previous month's revised figure of 165,000, which has tempered expectations for interest rate cuts [4][29].