高盛：华润啤酒(0291.HK)消费与休闲企业日天气和宏观压力短期内带来压力,但全年业绩指引保持不变

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Resources Beer is "Buy" with a 12-month price target of HK$51, indicating a potential upside of 62.9% from the current price of HK$31.30 [13][12][3] Core Insights - The company is on track to meet its full-year targets despite near-term volume growth pressures due to cautious consumer sentiment and adverse weather conditions in South China [2][3] - For the first five months of 2024, beer sales volume experienced a low-single-digit percentage decline year-on-year, offset by a low-single-digit percentage increase in average selling price (ASP) [4][7] - The management expects profit growth to be back-end loaded for 2024, with first-half performance likely lagging behind full-year targets due to ongoing commercial investments and operating deleveraging [2][3] Summary by Sections Operating Update - For January to May 2024, beer sales volume saw a low-single-digit percentage decline year-on-year, while ASP expanded by a low-single-digit percentage [4][7] - The sub-premium and above segments showed high-single-digit percentage growth, contrasting with flat growth in the mid-end segment and declines in low-end volume [4][7] Full-Year Guidance - The company reiterated its guidance for 2024, expecting steady total volume growth of approximately 0.6% and ASP expansion of 3.7% [7][8] - Management anticipates double-digit percentage growth in beer operating profit driven by gross profit margin (GPM) expansion, with a target of over 1.5 percentage points for the full year [7][8] Beer Sales Outlook - The performance during the peak summer months of July and August is critical, with management believing that achieving merely mid-single-digit percentage volume growth in these months is feasible [8][9] - Long-term targets include significant volume growth for premium products, with specific sales volume targets set for Heineken and Pure Draft by 2025 and 2028 [8][9] Spirits Business Update - The spirits segment is experiencing over 30% year-on-year sales growth for the first five months of 2024, with a full-year growth target of 40% deemed achievable [9][10]