高盛：美国日报5月I预览

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed [2][3]. Core Insights - The report anticipates a 0.25% increase in May core CPI, aligning with a year-over-year rate of 3.50% [3][4]. - A 0.11% increase in May headline CPI is expected, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 3.36% [3][4]. - The report highlights three key trends: slower inflation in consumer electronics and personal care, a deceleration in car insurance price increases, and stable rent and owners' equivalent rent (OER) inflation [4][8][10]. Summary by Sections CPI Forecast - The forecast for May core CPI is a 0.25% increase, with a year-over-year rate of 3.50% [3][4]. - The headline CPI is expected to rise by 0.11%, with a year-over-year rate of 3.36% [3][4]. Component-Level Trends - Consumer electronics, personal care, and other consumer products are expected to see price declines, consistent with recent retailer price cuts [4][6]. - Car insurance prices are projected to increase by 1%, a slowdown from 1.8% in April and 2.6% in March [8][10]. - Rent and OER inflation are expected to remain stable at 0.35% and 0.42%, respectively, reflecting a normalization in new-tenant rent growth [10][12]. Future Projections - Monthly core CPI inflation is expected to remain in the 0.2-0.3% range for the next few months, settling around 0.2% by the end of 2024 [12][13]. - Year-over-year core CPI inflation is forecasted at 3.5% and core PCE inflation at 2.8% by December 2024 [12][13].