Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for the company with a target price of HKD 2.50, representing a potential upside of +15.7% from the current price of HKD 2.16 [1][2] Core Views - The company's profitability is expected to return to growth in 2025, with the dividend yield remaining the highest in the sub-sector [1][2] - The company is expected to achieve a breakthrough in wind and solar installed capacity in 2024, with a target of 2.7 GW of new installations, compared to 0.8 GW in 2023 [2] - The company's 2024/25 profit forecasts have been slightly revised downward by 0.3%/0.7% due to adjustments in wind and solar utilization hours and operating costs [2] - The company's 2025/26 wind and solar installations are expected to reach 4.2 GW annually, contingent on the utilization rate of projects in 2024 [2] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 20,446 million in 2023 to RMB 25,880 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 8.1% [4] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 3,150 million in 2023 to RMB 4,640 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 13.8% [4] - The company's 2024/25/26 dividend yield is expected to remain at 7.0%, with a consistent dividend payout of RMB 0.14 per share [2][4] Operational Highlights - The company's total installed capacity is expected to grow from 17,236 MW in 2024 to 25,636 MW in 2026, with wind and solar accounting for 80.1% of the total by 2026 [5] - Wind and solar power generation is expected to increase from 20,274 GWh in 2024 to 33,812 GWh in 2026, despite a slight downward revision in utilization hours [5] - The company's 2024 wind and solar utilization hours are expected to decline by 2.0% and 1.5%, respectively, compared to previous forecasts [5] Valuation and Market Position - The company's valuation is based on a 5.2x forward P/E ratio, in line with its 5-year historical average [2] - The company's 7.0% dividend yield is the highest among its peers in the operator sub-sector, supporting its valuation [2] - The company's recent improvement in trading volume could enhance its chances of being included in the Stock Connect program [2]
京能清洁能源：2025年盈利重回增长趋势预期不变，股息率仍为子行业中最高