高盛：美国核心I通胀率放缓至33个月低点。

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the industry, with expectations of a normalization of the Fed funds rate and a potential first cut in September [2][3]. Core Insights - The May core CPI rose by 0.16% month-over-month, which is 14 basis points below consensus and represents the slowest pace since August 2021. The year-over-year rate fell to 3.4%, below the consensus of 3.5% [2][3]. - The report highlights that while airfares and car insurance prices declined, shelter categories showed a slight reacceleration. Prices for discretionary consumer goods generally fell, indicating increased discounting and price cuts [2][3]. - The report anticipates that core PCE prices rose by 0.14% in May, down from a previous estimate of 0.19%, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.61% [2][3]. Summary by Sections CPI Analysis - The report notes that the CPI increased by 0.01% in May, with energy prices falling by 2.0% and food prices rising by 0.1%. Core CPI year-over-year was reported at 3.42%, slightly below the previous month [2][3]. Consumer Goods and Services - Prices for several discretionary consumer goods categories fell, including new cars (-0.5% month-over-month), consumer electronics (-1.9%), and apparel (-0.3%). This decline is attributed to retailer price cuts and increased discounting [2][3]. Services Inflation - Labor-reliant services categories generally rose at a moderate pace, with food away from home increasing by 0.35% and personal care services by 0.2%. However, non-housing services inflation was weak at -0.04%, down from previous months [3].