高盛：6月FO纪要尽管点阵图显得较为鹰派,但仍坚持9月降息

Investment Rating - The report maintains an expectation of a first rate cut in September 2024 and a second cut in December 2024, despite a hawkish surprise in the June dot plot [5][8]. Core Insights - The June dot plot revealed a median projection of one cut in 2024, contrary to the two cuts anticipated by the consensus. The market-implied probability of a cut by September increased from 59% to a peak of 85% after a soft CPI report, before settling at 65% post-FOMC meeting [5][9]. - Chair Powell indicated that the decision between one cut and two this year is a close call, emphasizing that these projections are not definitive plans [5][11]. - The report suggests that if upcoming inflation data aligns with recent trends, the Fed leadership is likely to proceed with a rate cut in September [8][9]. Summary by Sections FOMC Meeting Insights - The FOMC noted "modest" progress towards the 2% inflation target, with inflation having decreased from a peak of 7% to 2.7% [9][11]. - The report highlights that labor market data would need to worsen significantly to support a case for a cut, following recent upticks in unemployment projections [11]. Inflation Forecasts - The updated core PCE inflation forecast for Q4 2024 is set at 2.7%, slightly below the FOMC's forecast of 2.8% [8][9]. - The report anticipates a sequential increase in core PCE inflation in June, followed by softer reports in July and August due to seasonal effects [8][9]. Market Reactions - The market's reaction to the one cut median was viewed as a hawkish surprise, yet it does not eliminate the possibility of a September cut [5][9]. - The report indicates that the Fed's leadership is likely to act on inflation data, with the next three rounds of data being crucial for decision-making [8][9].