全球流动性风向标系列（十二）：6月美联储FOMC会议点评-谨慎应对，降息还需等待

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current interest rate range of 5.25-5.50% for now, with a cautious approach towards potential rate cuts later in the year[15] - The median forecast indicates one rate cut in 2024, with 8 officials supporting two cuts and 7 supporting one cut, aligning with market expectations[5] - The Fed's long-term interest rate forecast has been raised from 2.6% to 2.8%, indicating a shift towards a higher and longer-lasting interest rate environment[8] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Data - The U.S. economy shows resilience, with inflation risks still present, necessitating close monitoring of upcoming inflation and employment data over the next 2-3 months[1] - The May CPI and core CPI data were both below expectations, contributing to a more cautious stance from the Fed regarding rate cuts[3] - The core PCE inflation forecast for 2024 has been adjusted to 2.8%, suggesting that achieving the 2% inflation target may be challenging[14] Group 3: Market Expectations and Financial Conditions - Current market expectations are pricing in one rate cut in November, reflecting a neutral stance towards future rate changes[28] - Financial conditions have loosened, returning to levels seen in March, which may influence the Fed's decision-making process[11] - The global liquidity environment is expected to remain "tight but loose" in the second half of 2024, influenced by the Fed's cautious approach to rate cuts[47]