高盛：石油评论：A上调2025年供应但下调需求

Investment Rating - The report indicates a modestly negative outlook for oil prices based on the IEA's adjustments to supply and demand forecasts [2]. Core Insights - The IEA has upgraded its forecast for non-OPEC ex-Russia supply for 2024 by 70 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) and for 2025 by 81 kb/d, while leaving the 2024 demand unchanged at 103.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) and slightly lowering the 2025 demand by 0.1 mb/d to 104.2 mb/d [2][4]. - Global oil inventories increased by 19.3 million barrels (mb) in April, with preliminary estimates indicating further rises in May [4]. - The IEA's long-term outlook suggests a peak in global oil demand in 2029, earlier than previously expected, with total supply capacity projected to rise to 113.8 mb/d by 2030, exceeding projected global demand of 105.4 mb/d [4][11]. Summary by Year - For 2024, the IEA forecasts a total world supply of 102.7 mb/d, with non-OPEC ex-Russia supply at 59.7 mb/d, and a total world demand of 103.2 mb/d [5]. - For 2025, the total world supply is projected at 105.0 mb/d, with non-OPEC ex-Russia supply at 61.1 mb/d, and total world demand adjusted to 104.2 mb/d [5]. Summary by Region - The IEA's demand forecast for OECD countries in 2024 is 45.5 mb/d, with notable downgrades in the US, Mexico, and Japan, while demand in China is upgraded by 149 kb/d [2][5]. - Non-OECD demand is projected at 57.7 mb/d for 2024, with growth driven by regions such as China and India [5][11].