Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies within it [1]. Core Insights - The upcoming week is pivotal for monetary policy decisions from major central banks including the Fed, BoJ, and BoE, with significant economic data releases expected [2][3]. - The US economists predict a hold on interest rates by the Fed, with a potential cut forecasted for September, while the BoJ has a 60% chance of a rate hike due to inflation and wage growth aligning with expectations [3]. - In Europe, the BoE is anticipated to begin easing restrictive policies, with a narrow majority favoring a rate cut [3]. - Key economic indicators include the US jobs report, with payroll gains expected to rise from 206k in June to 215k in July, and the unemployment rate projected to decrease to 4.0% [4][5]. Economic Data Summaries - Eurozone inflation is expected to rise to 2.59% YoY in July from 2.52% in June, with core HICP remaining at 2.87% [5]. - In Germany, inflation is forecasted at 2.5%, while France is expected to see 3.0% inflation [5]. - Japan's unemployment rate is projected to remain at 2.6%, with a significant MoM drop in industrial production forecasted at -5.1% [6]. - In China, both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs are expected to decline [6]. Corporate Earnings Focus - Major tech companies such as Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon are set to report earnings, with the Nasdaq 100 having experienced a decline of approximately 8.9% since July 10 [7]. - Other sectors in focus include oil majors like BP and Shell, consumer firms such as McDonald's and Starbucks, and automakers including Toyota and Volkswagen [7].

8 August 2024 Carry trades and cave dwellers Hong Kong Financial markets have been focused over the past week on the yen carry trade unwind. This is entirely understandable given the roller coaster market action in Tokyo. But the reality is that this has been a correction driven by technical factors, the selling of leveraged positions, rather than anything fundamental. Exhibit 1: Topix and Yen/US$ 2,200 2,300 2,400 2,500 2,600 2,700 2,800 2,900 3,000 140 145 150 155 160 165 Topix Yen/US$ (RHS) Jan-24 Feb-24 ...

Deutsche Bank Research Global Cross-Discipline Thematic Research Date 26 July 2024 Next week...this week All eyes will be on monetary policy decisions from the Fed, the BoJ and the BoE next week. In economic data, key releases include the jobs report in the US, inflation and GDP data in Europe as well as PMIs in China. In corporate earnings, the spotlight is on big tech firms. The week ahead is centered around key central bank decisions from the Fed, the BoJ and the BoE. All eyes will be on the Fed on Wedne ...

| --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|----------------------|-------------------| | | NSA CPI | MTM | | 1-Feb-24 | 310.33 | | | 1-Mar-24 | 312.33 | 0.65% | | 1-Apr-24 | 313.55 | 0.39% | | 1-May-24 | 314.07 | 0.17% | | 1-Jun-24 | 314.18 | 0.03% | | 1-Jul-24 | 314.62 | 0.14% | | 1-Aug-24 | 314.71 | 0.03% | | 1-Sep-24 | 314.86 | 0.05% | | 1-Oct-24 | 314.70 | -0.05% | | | | | | 1-Nov-24 | 314.32 | -0.12% | | 1-Dec-24 | 314.24 | -0.03% | | 1-Jan-25 | 315.52 | 0.41% | | 1-Feb-25 1-Mar-25 1-Apr-25 | 31 ...

V i e w p o i n t | Prepared for Philip Hu CNB minutes, Turkish inflation forecast CITI'S TAKE 09 Aug 2024 06:25:02 ET │ 20 pages It has been an incredible week in global macro. After the recent trigger of Sahm's rule and the unexpected BoJ hike, we believe that this higher volatility may not normalise as fast as some expect, suggesting a potential re-calibration higher in EM risk premium. We are entering a mini regime of rising investing uncertainty, whereby the start of Fed easing almost overlaps with US ...

Deutsche Bank Research North America High Yield Corporates Consumer Services, Leisure & Gaming Company Royal Caribbean Cruises (Nor) Date 25 July 2024 Key Takeaways from Q2'24 Results Royal Caribbean reported Adjusted EBITDA of $1.55 billion (+32.4% versus $1.17 billion in Q2'23) on revenue of $4.11 billion (+16.7% versus $3.52 billion in Q2'23). We note that Adjusted EBITDA was ahead of consensus expectations (~$1.42 billion). Management noted RCL achieved all three Trifecta goals on a trailing 12- month b ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates that overall equity positioning is still well above average despite a recent sharp drop, suggesting a cautious but optimistic outlook for the market [2][22]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant pullback in equity positioning, particularly in mega-cap growth and tech sectors, which has fallen to a two-month low, yet remains elevated compared to historical averages [2][22]. - Earnings growth for Q2 2024 is tracking just above 10%, which leaves room for further adjustments in positioning as growth expectations moderate [2][3]. - Strong inflows into equity funds, totaling approximately $22 billion this week and nearly $200 billion over the past three months, indicate a robust risk appetite among investors [4][5]. Summary by Sections Investor Positioning - Equity positioning has decreased sharply but is still above average, with a z-score of 0.50, placing it in the 74th percentile historically [22]. - Discretionary investor positioning has also declined, reaching a two-month low, while systematic strategies are at their lowest in over four months [22][25]. Sector Positioning - Positioning in mega-cap growth and tech has decreased but remains high relative to earnings growth, indicating potential for further cuts if growth slows [3][27]. - Utilities and consumer staples have seen increased positioning, while sectors like energy and consumer cyclicals have experienced declines [27][45]. Fund Flows - Equity funds have seen inflows of $22.2 billion, with notable contributions from emerging markets and Japan, while energy funds faced record outflows of $3.1 billion [28][29]. - Bond funds also attracted $16.1 billion in inflows, although this was a slowdown from previous weeks [29][50].

Deutsche Bank Research LatAm Macro and Strategy Monthly: Searching for Direction July 2024 Drausio Giacomelli Strategist +1-212-250-7355 Francisco Campos Chief LatAm Economist +1-212-250-9764 Carlos Munoz-Carcamo FX Strategist +1-212-250-2259 JP Schuchter Research Associate +1-212-250-9297 IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 041/10/2023. UNTIL 19th MARCH 2021 INCOMPLETE DISCLOSURE INFORMATION MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLAYED, PLEASE SEE APPENDIX 1 FOR FURTHER DETA ...

FICC Research Economics 8 August 2024 US CPI Inflation Preview (July 2024 CPI) Core CPI expected to have firmed in July We look for firming in July core CPI inflation to 0.21% m/m SA, from an unusually soft 0.06% reading in June. We expect a payback in shelter inflation and less deflation in core goods to drive this acceleration. For headline CPI, we look for a 0.21% m/m SA increase and expect the NSA index to print at 314.817. • We expect US headline CPI to have risen 0.21% m/m SA in July (from -0.06% in J ...

Deutsche Bank Research Global Rates Global Fixed Income Weekly Date 26 July 2024 Strategy Update This publication is a compilation of key research reports published over the past week. Francis Yared Strategist Matthew Raskin Strategist Soniya Sadeesh Strategist Bernd Volk Strategist Steven Zeng, CFA Strategist Ioannis Sokos Strategist Brian Lu Research Associate Gabriele Cozzi Strategist Mingyue Xin Strategist Deutsche Bank AG IMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. ...