2025 年 3 月 27 日 公司研究 潮玩景气度延续高增，加速拓展海外市场 分海内外渠道来看：1、中国内地实现收入 79.7 亿元，同比增长 52%，占 比总收入比重为 61%：1）线下渠道收入 45.3 亿元，同比增长 40.8%。其 中，零售店收入 38.3 亿元，同比增长 43.9%；机器人商店收入 7.0 亿元， 同比增长 26.4%。截至 24 年底，中国内地零售店合计开设 401 家，净增 38 家；机器人商店合计开设 2300 间，净增 110 间。2）线上渠道收入 27.0 亿元，同比增长 76.9%。其中，泡泡玛特抽盒机收入 11.1 亿元，同比增 长 52.7%；天猫旗舰店收入 6.3 亿元，同比增长 95.0%；抖音平台收入 6.0亿元，同比增长112.2%。3）批发及其他收入7.5亿元，同比增长50.7%， 主要由于泡泡玛特城市乐园的收入增加。2、港澳台及海外实现收入 50.7 亿元，同比增长 375%，占比总收入比重为 39%：1）线下渠道收入 30.7 亿元，同比增长 379.6%。其中，零售店销售收入 29.4 亿元，同比增长 404.0%；机器人商店收入 1.3 亿元，同比 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking it as the first recommendation [9]. Core Insights - The company's overall performance in 2024 is stable, with slight impacts on profitability due to promotional activities and rising raw material costs. Revenue and net profit for 2024 are projected at 42.896 billion and 12.123 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 0.54% and 0.36% [5]. - The bottled water segment faces short-term pressure but is gradually recovering market share, while tea beverages are experiencing significant growth. Revenue from bottled water in 2024 is expected to be 15.952 billion yuan, down 21.27% year-on-year, while tea beverage revenue is projected at 16.745 billion yuan, up 32.27% year-on-year [6]. - Cost improvements are anticipated, with the company starting to produce its own tea to reduce reliance on third-party suppliers. The company expects a decrease in PET prices in 2025, which will aid in cost management [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's revenue and net profit for 2024 are 42.896 billion and 12.123 billion yuan, with growth rates of 0.5% and 0.4% respectively. For 2025, revenue is projected to increase to 48.617 billion yuan, representing a growth rate of 13.3% [11]. - The gross margin for 2024 is 58.08%, slightly down from the previous year, while the net profit margin is 28.26% [5]. Market Segments - Bottled water sales are under pressure, with a revenue forecast of 15.952 billion yuan for 2024, down 21.27% year-on-year. However, the company maintains the leading market share in this segment [6]. - Tea beverage revenue is expected to reach 16.745 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 32.27%, driven by strong performance in both sugar-free and sugar-added tea products [6]. Cost and Capacity Management - The company is implementing strategies to improve cost efficiency, including in-house tea production and targeted procurement of raw materials. The production capacity utilization rate is expected to decline in 2024 due to lower bottled water sales [8]. - Capital expenditures are projected to remain at current levels, focusing on new plant construction and equipment investments [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][8]. Core Views - The company's 4Q24 performance met expectations, with stable dividend amounts. The report anticipates growth potential for 2025 [3][8]. - The company reported a revenue of 21.372 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.9 billion RMB, a decrease of 24.2% year-on-year [8]. - The average net electricity price for 2024 was 0.43 RMB per kWh, showing a slight decrease of 0.01 RMB per kWh compared to the previous year [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue and profit figures for the company from 2021 to 2027 are as follows: - Revenue: 15,985 million RMB (2021), 18,561 million RMB (2022), 20,282 million RMB (2023), 21,372 million RMB (2024), with estimates of 26,662 million RMB (2025E), 29,684 million RMB (2026E), and 30,341 million RMB (2027E) [7]. - Net Profit: 2,712 million RMB (2021), 2,819 million RMB (2022), 2,734 million RMB (2023), 1,900 million RMB (2024), with estimates of 3,150 million RMB (2025E), 3,429 million RMB (2026E), and 3,656 million RMB (2027E) [7]. - The company’s PE ratio for 2024 is 8.96, with projections of 5.41 (2025E), 4.97 (2026E), and 4.66 (2027E) [7]. Operational Insights - The company’s wind power capacity reached 6.6 GW by the end of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%. In February 2025, the electricity generation was 1.42 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 35.2% [8]. - The report suggests that the company’s performance in 2025 is expected to improve due to the resolution of weather-related disruptions and the ramp-up of LNG terminal capacity [8].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for China BlueChemical Core Insights - The recurring net profit for 2024 decreased by 28.33% year-on-year, with total sales revenue of 11.946 billion yuan, down 8.40% year-on-year, and net profit down 55.02% year-on-year to 1.071 billion yuan [2][3] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of approximately 557 million yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 51.98% and a dividend yield of 6.09% [2][3] Summary by Product - Urea sales revenue was 3.711 billion yuan, down 20.70% year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in sales price by 382.9 yuan per ton and a reduction in sales volume by 103,832 tons, with a gross profit margin of 19% [4] - Phosphate and compound fertilizers sales revenue was 2.687 billion yuan, down 0.70% year-on-year, with an increase in sales price by 67.1 yuan per ton but a decrease in sales volume by 22,605.8 tons, maintaining the same gross profit margin as the previous year [4] - Methanol sales revenue was 3.091 billion yuan, up 1.90% year-on-year, due to an increase in sales price by 66.2 yuan per ton, despite a decrease in sales volume by 17,611.3 tons, with a gross profit margin of 27% [4] - Acrylonitrile series products sales revenue was 2.011 billion yuan, up 54.30% year-on-year, driven by an increase in sales price by 738.1 yuan per ton and an increase in sales volume by 66,191.8 tons, with the gross profit margin turning positive [4] Strategic Developments - The company is extending its industrial chain upstream by securing phosphate rock resources through its subsidiaries, including a 1.6 million tons per year underground mining project expected to commence production in 2026 [5] - The company has signed a memorandum of understanding with BASF to establish a Joint Laboratory for Advanced Green C1 Chemical Technology, focusing on sustainable and low-carbon solutions [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for WuXi XDC Cayman, with a target price of HK$49.10 based on a current price of HK$41.90 [1][19]. Core Insights - WuXi XDC reported robust growth in 2024, with revenue reaching RMB4.052 billion, a year-on-year increase of 90.8%. The gross margin improved to 30.6%, up 4.3 percentage points, and net profit attributable to shareholders surged 277.2% to RMB1.070 billion [4][12]. - The company secured 53 new integrated projects and 23 iCMC projects in 2024, supporting clients in submitting 30 IND applications and delivering over 300 GMP production batches [5][13]. - North America emerged as the fastest-growing region, with revenue from North American clients reaching RMB2.03 billion, a 138.3% increase year-on-year, accounting for 50.1% of total revenue [15]. - The total backlog of orders reached RMB991 million, reflecting a 71% year-on-year growth, with new contract signings maintaining pace with this growth [16]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for WuXi XDC from 2025 to 2027 are RMB5.587 billion, RMB7.387 billion, and RMB9.461 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 37.9%, 32.2%, and 28.1% respectively [7][18]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB1.342 billion, RMB1.818 billion, and RMB2.403 billion for the same period, with growth rates of 25%, 35%, and 32% respectively [10][18]. - The adjusted net profit is projected to be RMB1.550 billion, RMB2.010 billion, and RMB2.580 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 32%, 30%, and 28% [10][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beverage [6] Core Views - The company reported a stable revenue of 13.521 billion, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.05%, and a net profit of 1.637 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.12% [1] - The beverage segment is actively being developed as a second growth curve, achieving a revenue of 1.397 billion, which is a significant year-on-year increase of 30.80% [2] - The company is focusing on enhancing production capacity and efficiency, with a gross margin of 47.3%, up by 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 1.158 billion, with a payout ratio of 70.8%, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder returns [3] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The packaging water business generated revenue of 12.124 billion, a decrease of 2.59% year-on-year, accounting for 89.7% of total revenue. The retail sales of the company's packaging water products grew by 4.5%, outperforming the industry growth rate of 2.5% [1] - The beverage business has shown robust growth, with a three-year compound annual growth rate of 40%, driven by new product launches and market expansion [2] Production and Profitability - The company has increased its production capacity by 21% year-on-year, adding 22 new production lines, which is expected to enhance the self-sufficiency rate of packaging water to over 60% by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [3] - The net profit margin improved to 12.1%, an increase of 2.27 percentage points year-on-year, supported by reduced sales and management expenses [3] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.975 billion, 2.377 billion, and 2.897 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.7%, 20.4%, and 21.9% [3] - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, projecting steady revenue growth and improving profitability metrics over the next few years [5][12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [9] Core Views - The company's overall performance in 2024 is stable, with slight impacts on profitability. Revenue and net profit for 2024 are projected at 42.896 billion and 12.123 billion yuan, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of +0.54% and +0.36%. However, the second half of 2024 is expected to see a decline in revenue and net profit by -6.67% [5] - The bottled water segment is under short-term pressure, but market share is gradually recovering. Revenue for bottled water in 2024 is expected to be 15.952 billion yuan, down -21.27% year-on-year, while tea beverages are projected to grow rapidly, with revenue of 16.745 billion yuan in 2024, up +32.27% year-on-year [6] - Cost improvements are anticipated, with the company starting to produce its own tea to reduce reliance on third-party suppliers. The company expects a decrease in PET prices in 2025, which will aid in cost management [7][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's revenue and net profit for 2024 are 42.896 billion and 12.123 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of +0.5% and +0.4% [11] - For 2025, revenue is projected to increase to 48.617 billion yuan, with a net profit of 13.900 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of +13.3% and +14.7% [11] Market Segments - Bottled water revenue for 2024 is expected to be 15.952 billion yuan, down -21.27% year-on-year, while tea beverage revenue is projected at 16.745 billion yuan, up +32.27% year-on-year [6] - Functional beverages and juice drinks are also expected to perform well, with revenue for functional drinks at 4.932 billion yuan and juice drinks at 4.085 billion yuan in 2024, showing growth rates of +0.62% and +15.60%, respectively [6] Cost and Capacity Management - The company plans to maintain its capital expenditure levels in 2025, focusing on new plant construction and equipment investment [8] - The production capacity utilization rate is expected to decline in 2024 due to reduced bottled water sales, but the company will continue to invest in water source development and equipment [8] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to see revenue growth from 48.617 billion yuan in 2025 to 61.133 billion yuan by 2027, with corresponding EPS increasing from 1.24 yuan to 1.53 yuan [9][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Sunshine Insurance (06963.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights significant growth in profit and new business value (NBV), with a notable improvement in cost control for property insurance [9] - The company reported a net profit of 5.449 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 45.8% [9] - The report anticipates continued growth in NBV and improvements in operational efficiency, particularly in the life insurance segment [9] Financial Performance Summary - **Insurance Service Revenue**: Projected to increase from 59.9 billion yuan in 2023 to 64.0 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.85% [1] - **Net Profit**: Expected to rise from 3.738 billion yuan in 2023 to 5.449 billion yuan in 2024, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 45.77% [1] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Forecasted to grow from 0.33 yuan in 2023 to 0.47 yuan in 2024 [1] - **Embedded Value (EV)**: Projected to reach 1,158 billion yuan by the end of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 11.2% [9] Life Insurance Segment Summary - **New Business Value (NBV)**: Sunshine Life's NBV is expected to reach 5.15 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 43.3% [9] - **New Premiums**: New single premiums for Sunshine Life are projected to decline by 7.9% to 30.6 billion yuan in 2024, while regular premiums are expected to increase by 12.6% to 20.4 billion yuan [9] - **Agent Productivity**: The average productivity per active agent has improved significantly, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [9] Property Insurance Segment Summary - **Cost Control**: The comprehensive cost ratio for property insurance is reported at 99.7%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 1 percentage point [9] - **Premium Income**: The original premium income for property insurance is expected to grow by 8.1% to 47.8 billion yuan in 2024 [9] Investment Strategy Summary - **Asset Allocation**: The company is shifting its investment strategy by increasing allocations to bonds and stocks while reducing cash assets [9] - **Investment Income**: The net investment income is projected to reach 19.2 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 8.4% year-on-year increase [9]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong investment potential for the company, suggesting to pay attention to its growth prospects [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 2.241 billion, a year-on-year increase of 155.6%, and an adjusted annual profit of RMB 585 million, up 702.1% [1]. - The sales revenue from building block toys decreased by 62.9%, indicating a strategic shift towards building character toys [1]. - The company has a robust IP matrix with nearly 50 licensed IPs and plans to add over 25 more, which is expected to drive sales growth [4]. - The gross margin improved to 52.6%, reflecting enhanced supply chain efficiency and product structure optimization [3]. - The company is expanding its market presence both domestically and internationally, with overseas sales revenue increasing by 518.2% [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 2.241 billion for the fiscal year, with a significant increase in adjusted profit to RMB 585 million [1]. - The sales of character building toys reached RMB 2.201 billion, while sales of building block toys saw a decline [1]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a "three-full strategy" (full price range, full demographics, globalization) to penetrate deeper into the market [3]. - The company plans to launch 800-1000 new SKUs and over 300 new products in 2025, focusing on popular IP collaborations [4]. Market Expansion - The company is leveraging over 450 distributors to cover first and second-tier cities while accelerating penetration into lower-tier markets [5]. - Internationally, the company is making strides in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, with a reported overseas revenue of RMB 64 million [4][5]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict net profits for 2025-2027 to be RMB 941 million, RMB 1.381 billion, and RMB 1.991 billion respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 30x, 20x, and 14x [6]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory through its IP and channel strategies, despite potential industry risks [6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Kunlun Energy (135 HK), with a target price of HKD 9.02, indicating a potential upside of 15.1% from the current price of HKD 7.84 [1][14]. Core Insights - The company has set an ambitious retail gas growth target of 8% for 2025, supported by the addition of 8 city gas projects and an increase in commercial users [2][7]. - The financial outlook shows a slight decrease in core profit expectations for 2024, primarily due to lower-than-expected earnings from the LNG/upstream segment [7]. - The company maintains a healthy financial position with over RMB 20 billion in net cash by the end of 2024, and plans to increase the dividend payout ratio to 45% in 2025 [7][10]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 177,354 million in 2023 to RMB 200,497 million in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.2% [3][15]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 5,682 million in 2023 to RMB 6,948 million in 2025, with a corresponding EPS growth from RMB 0.71 to RMB 0.80 [3][15]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 10.3 in 2023 to 9.1 in 2025, indicating potential valuation upside [3][15]. Segment Performance - The natural gas sales segment is expected to generate revenue of RMB 152,090 million in 2024, with a slight decline in tax profit forecasted for this segment [9][11]. - The LNG processing and storage segment is projected to see a modest increase in revenue, while the exploration and production segment is expected to decline significantly [9][11]. - Overall, the company anticipates a tax profit growth of 16.4% in 2025, driven by improved performance in the natural gas and LNG segments [11][15]. Operational Metrics - The company’s gas sales volume is expected to rise from 30.3 billion cubic meters in 2023 to 35.5 billion cubic meters in 2025, reflecting an annual growth rate of 8.3% [10]. - The LNG plant processing volume is projected to increase from 2.83 billion cubic meters in 2023 to 3.80 billion cubic meters in 2025, with a utilization rate of 68.5% [10]. - The gross margin for gas sales is expected to stabilize at RMB 0.47 per cubic meter through 2025, despite potential discounts for commercial users [7][10].