Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Pop Mart International [2][9][15] Core Views - The company achieved record revenue and profit, with revenue expected to approach RMB 100 billion [1][3] - The company is projected to continue strong growth, with revenue expected to exceed RMB 200 billion in 2025, driven by both domestic and international markets [3][9] Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, revenue reached RMB 13.04 billion, a 107% year-on-year increase, with a gross profit margin of 66.8%, up 5.5 percentage points [3][14] - Adjusted net profit for 2024 was RMB 3.4 billion, reflecting a 186% year-on-year growth, with an adjusted net profit margin of 26.1% [3][14] - The company expects revenue for 2025 to be RMB 22.1 billion, a 69% increase year-on-year, and adjusted net profit to reach RMB 6.3 billion, an 86% increase [9][15] Domestic Business Summary - Domestic revenue was RMB 7.97 billion, up 52% year-on-year, with significant growth in both offline and online channels [4][14] - The number of retail stores increased to 401, with a net addition of 38 stores [4][14] - Online sales grew by 77%, driven by increased customer engagement across various platforms [4][14] International Business Summary - International revenue surged to RMB 5.07 billion, a 375% increase year-on-year, with overseas revenue accounting for 39% of total revenue [5][14] - The company expanded its international presence, adding 50 retail stores and entering new markets including Vietnam, Indonesia, and Italy [5][14] - The gross profit margin for international operations was 71.3%, exceeding domestic levels [5][14] IP Development and Membership Growth - The company reported strong performance from its IPs, with revenue from major IPs exceeding RMB 1 billion each [7][14] - Membership numbers reached 46.08 million, a 34% increase year-on-year, contributing significantly to sales [7][14] Theme Park Business Summary - The theme park segment exceeded expectations in revenue and profitability, attracting a diverse visitor demographic [8][14] - The company plans to upgrade two-thirds of the park's area and initiate a second phase of construction by 2026 [8][14] Profitability and Valuation - The report projects adjusted net profit margins to improve to 28.6% in 2025 and 30.9% by 2027 [9][15] - The target price for the stock is set at HKD 158.2, based on a 30x PE valuation for FY25 [9][15]

[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 港股公司报告 业绩短期承压，2025 年包装水复苏展望积极 事件： [Table_Summary] 公司于 2025 年 3 月 25 日发布 2024 年度报告，2024 年公司实现营收 428.96 亿元，同比增长 0.5%，归母净利 121.23 亿元，同比增长 0.4%； 其中 2024H2 实现营收 207.23 亿元，同比减少 6.7%；归母净利润 58.84 亿元，同比减少 6.7%。 点评： 2024H2 包装水业务进一步下滑，2025 年恢复性增长与盈利提升展望积 极。2024H2 公司包装水营收 74.22 亿元，同比减少 24.4%，相比上半年 下滑幅度有所加大，主要系舆论的持续影响，且公司于 4 月份推出纯净 水产品后加大促销投入以应对市场份额下滑。从实际结果看，尽管报表 端包装水业务营收下滑，但公司产品在零售市场的份额逐步修复。展望 2025 年，包装水行业价格战激烈程度预计有所下降，调整红绿瓶的结构 占比后，公司包装水有望在低基数下实现较快的恢复性增长，规模效应 恢复叠加促销费用等投入压力缓解，包装水的盈利能力将得到增强。 2024H2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao (6862.HK) with a current price of HKD 17.62 [1] Core Insights - Haidilao's 2024 annual report shows a revenue of HKD 427.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and a net profit of HKD 47.1 billion, up 4.6% year-on-year. In the second half of 2024, revenue was HKD 212.6 billion, down 5.8% year-on-year, while net profit was HKD 26.7 billion, up 19.1% year-on-year [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Haidilao's restaurant operations, takeaway business, seasoning products, and other sales generated revenues of HKD 403.98 billion, HKD 12.54 billion, HKD 5.75 billion, and HKD 4.83 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.9%, 20.4%, -27.1%, and 39.6% [5] - The overall table turnover rate improved to 4.1 times per day in 2024, up from 3.8 times per day in 2023 [6] - The overall customer unit price for 2024 was HKD 97.5, slightly down from HKD 99.1 in 2023, but the second half of 2024 saw a recovery in unit price [6] Cost Structure - In the second half of 2024, the net profit margin improved to 12.6%, up 2.6 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in raw material costs, which accounted for 36.8% of revenue [6] - For the full year 2024, raw material costs accounted for 37.9% of revenue, down 3.0 percentage points year-on-year [7] Strategic Initiatives - Haidilao launched the "Pomegranate Plan," which includes 11 sub-brands, aiming to diversify its offerings and enhance customer engagement [8] - The company plans to increase the number of main brand stores (including franchises) in 2025, focusing on third-tier cities and below [9] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for Haidilao are adjusted to HKD 53.55 billion and HKD 59.71 billion for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with an introduction of a 2027 forecast of HKD 65.15 billion [9] - The current stock price corresponds to a 2025 P/E ratio of 17x, indicating a mature single-store model and strong brand momentum [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 187.046 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.24%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.96 billion yuan, an increase of 4.89% year-on-year. The company declared a dividend of 0.3158 yuan per share, with a core profit payout ratio of 43% [7] - Retail gas volume continues to grow significantly, with retail gas volume increasing by 8.1% year-on-year to 32.8 billion cubic meters. The company expects an 8% growth in retail gas volume for 2025, with an addition of 600,000 to 700,000 new users [7] - The company has a solid cash flow position, with operating cash flow of 12.585 billion yuan and free cash flow of 7.044 billion yuan in 2024. The dividend payout ratio is expected to increase to 45% in 2025, corresponding to a dividend yield of 4.2% [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2024 is 187.046 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of 5.24% for the following years [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 6.147 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3.14% [8] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.71 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.16 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 42.75 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and a net profit of 4.71 billion yuan, up 4.6% year-on-year. In the second half of 2024, revenue was 21.26 billion yuan, down 5.8% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 19.1% to 2.67 billion yuan [4][5] - The overall table turnover rate improved to 4.1 times per day in 2024, compared to 3.8 times in 2023, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [6] - The company launched the "Pomegranate Plan," which includes 11 new restaurant brands, contributing to revenue diversification and growth [8] Revenue and Profit Structure - In 2024, the revenue breakdown was as follows: restaurant operations generated 40.398 billion yuan, delivery services 1.254 billion yuan, seasoning products and other sales 0.575 billion yuan, and other restaurant operations 0.483 billion yuan [5] - The company experienced a net decrease of 6 stores in 2024, ending the year with 1,368 locations [5] Cost Structure and Profitability - In the second half of 2024, the cost of raw materials accounted for 36.8% of revenue, down 4.2 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to an improved net profit margin of 12.6%, up 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [6][7] - The overall net profit margin for 2024 was 11.0%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [7] Future Outlook - The company plans to achieve a mid-single-digit growth in the number of new stores in 2025, focusing on expansion in lower-tier cities [9] - The successful operation of the "Pomegranate Plan" and the expansion of the "Flame Grilled Meat Shop" brand are expected to drive further revenue growth [9] Financial Projections - The projected net profit for 2025 is 5.355 billion yuan, with an expected growth rate of 13.7% [10] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.96 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17x based on the current stock price [9][10]

第三方稳健增长，股东回报可观 消费品/食品饮料 24 年公司营收/归母净利润分别实现 65.4/7.4 亿，同比 +6.4%/-13.3%，公司 收入端第三方业务实现反弹带动增长，但关联方业务受需求及价格影响对业绩 有所拖累。利润端受公司促销加大、关联方价格调整等因素影响下滑。H2 公司 收入/归母净利润分别实现 36.1/4.3 亿，同比+2.3%/-12.9%。25 年看，第三方 业务随着渠道精耕及新品研发等战略落地，有望保持增长势头，关联方业务仍 有压力期待改善。此外，公司加大对于 B 端及海外市场的拓展力度，寻求增量 贡献。同时，公司短期无重大资本开支，分红率有望维持高位，股东回报可观。 当前行业格局已逐步稳定，虽然复苏期竞争仍激烈，但公司品牌优势领先，产 品及渠道不断完善，未来渗透市场提升份额仍有空间。我们给予 25-27 年 EPS 预期为 0.78、0.86、0.96 元，对应 25 年估值 17X，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 当前股价：14.36 港元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 1037 | | --- | --- | | 香港股（百万股） | 1037 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [9]. Core Insights - The company's 2024 performance exceeded expectations, driven by the strong growth of its collagen stick product and the ramp-up of new products in the focus series, alongside the growth of its star product, Keli Jin [3][9]. - The company has a robust pipeline of new products in its cosmetics business, which is expected to contribute to future growth [3][9]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 55.39 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 57%. The adjusted net profit is expected to be 21.51 billion RMB, up 47% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted at 20.62 billion RMB, a 42% increase [9]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 is estimated at 82.1%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to faster growth in the skincare segment compared to the medical device segment [9]. - The company’s sales expense ratio is expected to be 36.26%, an increase of 3.21 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a higher proportion of online sales [9]. - The company anticipates a net profit margin of 37.2% for 2024, down 4 percentage points year-on-year, due to changes in channel and product structure [9]. Product and Brand Performance - The company’s star product, the collagen stick, maintains strong momentum, with significant contributions from new products and brand expansion. The focus series cream has generated over 200 million RMB in revenue, indicating successful product structure optimization [9]. - The Keli Jin brand is expected to see accelerated growth in the second half of 2024, benefiting from the strong performance of its flagship products [9]. - The company has a diverse product line and brand portfolio, which is expected to sustain rapid growth through continuous new product incubation [9].

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·食物饮品(HS) 颐海国际（01579.HK） 2024 年业绩公告点评：第三方保持稳健，关 联方有望修复 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 6156 | 6540 | 7243 | 7964 | 8638 | | 同比(%) | (0.11) | 6.24 | 10.76 | 9.96 | 8.46 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 852.70 | 739.43 | 884.67 | 988.50 | 1,087.89 | | 同比(%) | 14.92 | (13.28) | 19.64 | 11.74 | 10.05 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.82 | 0.71 | 0.85 | 0.95 | 1.05 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 15.81 | 18.23 | 15.24 | 13.64 | 12.39 | 执业证书：S0600524 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company's performance is significantly driven by transformation and upgrades, leading to substantial growth in earnings, supported by high dividends that indicate a return to value [4] - The company reported a revenue of 15.57 billion HKD in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 24.13%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.87 billion HKD, an increase of 51.05% [6] - The company is expected to benefit from the realization of profits from the South China logistics park transformation project, with anticipated tax-adjusted gains of 2.367 billion HKD from land preparation and further potential gains of approximately 8.2 billion HKD from land swaps [6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 20.52 billion HKD in 2023, 15.57 billion HKD in 2024, 15.51 billion HKD in 2025E, 16.40 billion HKD in 2026E, and 17.25 billion HKD in 2027E, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 32.2%, -24.1%, -0.4%, 5.7%, and 5.2% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.90 billion HKD in 2023, 2.87 billion HKD in 2024, 3.64 billion HKD in 2025E, 3.65 billion HKD in 2026E, and 2.80 billion HKD in 2027E, with growth rates of 51.7%, 51.1%, 26.6%, 0.5%, and -23.5% respectively [5] - The company maintains a dividend payout ratio of approximately 50%, with a proposed final dividend of 0.598 HKD per share [6] Market Performance - The toll road business remains stable, while the environmental protection business faces short-term pressure due to impairment provisions [6] - Toll revenue and net profit decreased by 8% and 12% year-on-year, respectively, primarily due to adverse weather and increased free periods for small passenger vehicles during holidays [6] - The environmental protection business reported a revenue decline of 15% year-on-year, leading to a net loss of approximately 683 million HKD [6] Debt and Dividend Structure - The company is optimizing its debt structure, maintaining a 50% dividend payout ratio, which supports a high dividend yield and potential return to value [6] - The company has significantly reduced net exchange losses compared to 2023, with a notable decrease of 528 million HKD [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for MINISO [4][6] Core Views - MINISO achieved a revenue of 16.994 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.8%, with an adjusted net profit of 2.721 billion yuan, up 15.4% year-on-year [1] - The company plans to pay a cash dividend of 101 million USD, which is approximately 50% of the adjusted net profit for the six months ending December 31, 2024 [1] - The domestic store expansion is steady, with a net increase of 136 stores in Q4 2024, bringing the total to 4,386 stores, an increase of 460 stores year-on-year [1] - The overseas market continues to grow primarily through direct stores, with a total of 3,118 overseas stores by Q4 2024, an increase of 631 stores year-on-year [2] Summary by Sections Domestic Performance - In Q4 2024, domestic MINISO achieved a revenue of 2.297 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.5% [1] - Same-store sales faced pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 4.62% in Q4 [1] Overseas Performance - Overseas revenue reached 2.132 billion yuan in Q4 2024, a year-on-year increase of 42.7% [2] - Direct store and partner store growth rates were 65.5% and 17.4%, respectively [2] Profitability and Costs - The gross margin reached a historical high of 47% in Q4 2024, up 3.9 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Selling, administrative, and financial expense ratios increased to 21.24%, 5.87%, and 0.34%, respectively, due to accelerated direct store expansion [3] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 20.905 billion, 24.628 billion, and 28.244 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.057 billion, 3.747 billion, and 4.411 billion yuan [4][5] - The estimated P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 13.8, 11.3, and 9.6 times, respectively [4][5]