Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][7]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a rare "makeup artist IP," reshaping the high-end beauty ecosystem with a unique pricing strategy and personalized consultation services [3]. - The company achieved impressive sales performance during the "3·8" promotional event, ranking first in the makeup and fragrance category on Douyin with a GMV of 50-70 million yuan, reflecting a 7-place increase year-on-year [5]. - Following its inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, the company is expected to see a significant increase in liquidity, benefiting from both southbound capital and passive index fund investments [6]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 38.44 billion, 50.83 billion, and 63.98 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.77, 2.36, and 2.98 yuan [7][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The brand founder, Mao Geping, is a prominent figure in the makeup aesthetics field, leveraging his influence to enhance brand recognition and market positioning [3]. Market Performance - The company has shown strong online sales performance, with effective promotional strategies such as live streaming expected to further boost its growth [5]. Financial Projections - The company anticipates significant revenue growth, with a projected increase of 57.8% in 2023, followed by growth rates of 33.2%, 32.2%, and 25.9% in the subsequent years [10]. - The net profit is expected to grow from 662 million yuan in 2023 to 1.458 billion yuan by 2026, indicating a robust growth trajectory [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the gross profit margin is temporarily affected by preferential policies, but the upcoming new vehicle cycle is expected to contribute to incremental growth [4]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved sales of 159,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 20.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.8%, generating revenue of 44.27 billion yuan, which is a 6.1% increase year-on-year and a 3.3% increase quarter-on-quarter [2][4]. - The vehicle gross margin reached 19.7%, down 3.0 percentage points year-on-year and 1.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to the impact of a December interest-free car purchase policy [4]. Summary by Sections Sales and Revenue - In Q4 2024, the average selling price per vehicle was approximately 269,000 yuan, with total vehicle sales revenue of 42.64 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.2% [4]. - The company expects Q1 2025 delivery volumes to be between 88,000 and 93,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.5% to 15.7% [4]. Profitability - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.52 billion yuan in Q4 2024, a decrease of 37.7% year-on-year [4]. - The net profit margin was 9.1%, down 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the profit per vehicle was 25,000 yuan, a decrease of 9,000 yuan year-on-year [4]. Product Strategy - The company has a clear product planning strategy with a lineup of "four range-extended electric vehicle models and one high-voltage pure electric model," covering the market above 200,000 yuan [4]. - The company has optimized its direct sales channel structure, with 500 retail centers across 150 cities as of the end of February 2025 [4]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates strong new vehicle cycles starting in 2025, which will open up sales opportunities for the company [4]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 9.77 billion, 14.18 billion, and 19.65 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 22.7X, 15.6X, and 11.3X [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][7]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a rare "makeup artist IP," reshaping the high-end beauty ecosystem with a unique pricing strategy and personalized consultation services [3]. - The sales performance during the "3·8" promotional event was impressive, with significant online sales growth, particularly on platforms like Douyin and Tmall [5][6]. - The inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect is expected to enhance liquidity and attract capital, aligning with the new consumption trends in the market [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at 38.44 billion, 50.83 billion, and 63.98 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.77, 2.36, and 2.98 yuan [7][10]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with revenue growth rates of 33.2%, 32.2%, and 25.9% for the next three years [10]. - The projected net profit for the same years is 868 million, 1.155 billion, and 1.458 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 31.2%, 33.1%, and 26.2% [10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to leverage its unique content and community engagement to capitalize on the AI era, enhancing its content recommendation and creation tools to unlock commercial value from its extensive corpus [3]. - The company has entered a commercialization phase, transitioning from game revenue to advertising revenue, with a notable increase in both sectors. The revenue structure has improved significantly, with advertising and game revenues projected to grow by 28% and 40% year-on-year, respectively, in 2024 [4]. - The company is anticipated to continue its growth trajectory, driven by a strong sense of community and user engagement, which will enhance its monetization potential in the evolving digital landscape [5]. Summary by Sections Current Financial Data - Current stock price is HKD 166.30, with a total market capitalization of HKD 700.6 billion and a total share count of 421.3 million [2]. - The average daily trading volume is HKD 710.1 million, with a 52-week price range of HKD 80.85 to HKD 238.8 [2]. Performance Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at HKD 298.8 billion, HKD 332.5 billion, and HKD 358.5 billion, respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be HKD 1.93, HKD 4.01, and HKD 5.74 for the same period [9]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of HKD 812 million in 2025, with a significant growth rate of 107.8% in 2026 [11]. Revenue Breakdown - For 2024, the company anticipates advertising revenue of HKD 110 billion and game revenue of HKD 81.9 billion, contributing to a diversified revenue structure [4]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve from 32.7% in 2024 to 40.6% by 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company [2][9] Core Insights - The company is expected to leverage its unique content and community engagement to capitalize on the AI era, enhancing its content recommendation and creation tools to unlock commercial value from its extensive corpus [3][4] - The company has entered a commercialization phase, transitioning from game revenue to advertising revenue, with a notable increase in both segments. The revenue structure has improved significantly, with advertising and game revenues projected to grow by 28% and 40% year-on-year, respectively, in 2024 [4][5] - The company is forecasted to continue its growth trajectory, with a strong community sense and user engagement driving its commercial potential. The shift from niche culture to a broader community platform is expected to sustain its growth in the AI era [5] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 298.8 billion, 332.5 billion, and 358.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.93, 4.01, and 5.74 yuan for the same years [9][11] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 812 million yuan in 2025, with a significant growth rate of 107.8% in 2026 [11][12] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 92.7, 44.6, and 31.1 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, indicating a favorable valuation as the company continues to grow [9][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [10] Core Views - The company's brokerage business has a strong competitive moat that is difficult for competitors to surpass, with its direct brand, Lianjia, occupying a core market position. The company is expanding its market share in lower-tier cities through its platform, Beilian. The second-hand market is improving while the new housing market in lower-tier cities remains sluggish, providing a comfortable operating environment for the company. The second-hand business is expected to increase in volume, while the new housing business is expected to see price increases, leading to continuous performance growth and amplified profit elasticity due to operational leverage. The home decoration and rental businesses may not contribute significantly to profits in the short term but are expected to provide substantial performance growth in the medium term. Given its competitive advantages, relative scarcity, potential performance elasticity, and the influx of incremental funds post-listing, the company is expected to enjoy a certain valuation premium in the short term. From a medium to long-term perspective, there is still room for improvement in brokerage business share, and the home decoration and rental sectors can contribute to potential growth, with data assets holding significant value elasticity, making the company a strategic allocation target [2][9][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading integrated online and offline real estate transaction and service platform, focusing on digitalizing and smartening the residential service industry. It provides a one-stop, high-quality, and efficient service including second-hand and new housing transactions, rentals, home decoration, and home services. In 2023, the company's total transaction volume (GTV) reached 3.14 trillion yuan, with the proportion of second-hand and new housing brokerage business maintaining over 95% [18][22]. Competitive Moat - The company has built a competitive moat through high and lengthy infrastructure construction, creating a barrier that competitors find hard to cross. The ACN network breaks traditional competitive dilemmas, enabling a win-win cooperation model and expanding single-store economies to regional economies. The company's self-operated brand, Lianjia, has successfully captured customer mindshare through its property dictionary, genuine listings, and service commitments, resulting in significant premium in customer acquisition and commission rates compared to industry averages [6][36]. Market Share and Profit Elasticity - The company’s market share in the second-hand and new housing GTV was 28.6% and 9.7% respectively in 2023. The brokerage business is transitioning from scale victory to efficiency priority, with Lianjia promoting a large store model and leveraging the Beilian platform for continuous expansion. The impact of commission reductions in Beijing is gradually diminishing, and the commission rate for second-hand transactions has shown signs of recovery [7][9]. Business Expansion and Future Growth - The home decoration business has rapidly grown, with revenue exceeding 10 billion yuan in 2023. The company is shifting focus from blind expansion to solidifying internal capabilities and enhancing management efficiency. The rental business, "Shengxin Rent," has also expanded rapidly, contributing over 15% to rental income, and is expected to maintain good growth momentum. The company is exploring new profit points through its data assets and partnerships with developers [8][9][10]. Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 77.8 billion yuan in 2023, with the second-hand and new housing businesses accounting for 36% and 39% respectively. The home decoration business saw significant growth, reaching 10.9 billion yuan, while rental income reached 9.8 billion yuan, accounting for 16%. The overall gross margin improved to 27.9%, and the company successfully turned a profit with a net profit of 5.9 billion yuan in 2023 [30][32]. Valuation and Shareholder Returns - The company emphasizes shareholder returns through substantial dividends and buybacks, ensuring a solid bottom-line return for shareholders. The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 8.11 billion, 8.91 billion, and 10.23 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 25.8, 23.4, and 20.4 times. Given its competitive advantages and potential performance elasticity, the company is expected to enjoy a valuation premium in the short term [9][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to Neutral with a target price of HKD 93.62, reflecting a potential downside of 17.3% from the current price of HKD 113.20 [1][7][8]. Core Insights - The company's fourth-quarter automotive gross margin fell below expectations at 19.7%, primarily due to a decrease in average selling price (ASP) and an increase in per-vehicle costs, including provisions for purchase commitments and promotional activities [2][8]. - Total revenue for the fourth quarter increased by 3.3% quarter-on-quarter, while net profit rose by 25.2% to RMB 3.5 billion, supported by RMB 400 million in interest income [2][8]. - The company faces significant challenges in sales growth, cost control, and market competitiveness, leading to uncertainties in revenue growth and gross margin for 2025 [2][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 123.85 billion in 2023, RMB 144.46 billion in 2024, and RMB 157.98 billion in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 173.5%, 16.6%, and 9.4% respectively [3][16]. - Net profit is expected to decline from RMB 11.70 billion in 2023 to RMB 8.03 billion in 2024, before slightly increasing to RMB 8.56 billion in 2025 [3][16]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to decrease from 22.2% in 2023 to 19.7% in 2025, indicating pressure on profitability [17]. Sales and Market Competition - The company anticipates first-quarter sales between 88,000 and 93,000 vehicles, with March sales estimated at 32,000 to 37,000 vehicles, reflecting the impact of recent price cuts [2][8]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying with new entrants in the extended-range vehicle segment, which may affect the company's market share and sales volume [8][9].

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 03 15 年 月 日 中国宏桥（01378.HK） 历史最佳业绩，一体化成本优势凸显 事件：公司已于 3 月 14 日公布 2024 年全年业绩，2024 年公司实现营收 1561.7 亿元，同比增长 16.9%；实现归母净利润 223.7 亿元，同比增长 95.2%；扣非归母净利润 245.7 亿元，同比增长 96.1%；基本每股收益 2.36 元，同比增长 95.2%。净利润增加主要系电解铝及氧化铝"量价齐 升"及原材料采购价格较 2023 年同期下降所致。目前铝价在全球低库存 及国内供给刚性凸显下维持高位预期，并有望伴随美联储降息及新能源 相关绿色用铝占比提升带来定价中枢进一步上移，凭借铝行业高景气延 续，公司业绩弹性有望持续提升。 受益铝行业高景气，各产品"量价齐升"增厚公司业绩。1）量，公司实 现电解铝销量 583.7 万吨，同比增长 1.5%；氧化铝销量 1092.1 万吨， 同比增长 5.3%；铝合金加工产品销量 76.6 万吨，同比增长 32.1%。2） 价，公司电解铝外售价为 1.755 万元/吨（不含税），同比增长 6. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to release two new electric vehicle models in the second half of 2025, which may create surprises. Continuous investment in AI is anticipated to enhance the competitiveness of its Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) [4][5] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 have been adjusted downwards from 169.2 billion to 166.2 billion CNY and from 216.2 billion to 215.6 billion CNY, with a new forecast for 2027 at 244 billion CNY, representing year-on-year growth of 15.1%, 29.7%, and 13.2% respectively [4] - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 have been revised down from 13.2 billion to 11.2 billion CNY and from 17.8 billion to 16.9 billion CNY, with a new forecast for 2027 at 22.8 billion CNY, corresponding to EPS of 5.2, 7.8, and 10.4 CNY [4] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 123.85 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 173.5%. For 2024, revenue is expected to be 144.46 billion CNY, growing by 16.6%, and for 2025, it is projected at 166.2 billion CNY, with a growth of 15.1% [6] - The net profit for 2023 is 12.198 billion CNY, with a staggering year-on-year growth of 58,494.3%. For 2024, it is expected to be 10.671 billion CNY, a decrease of 12.5%, and for 2025, it is projected at 11.153 billion CNY, with a growth of 4.5% [6] - The gross margin is expected to be 22% in 2023, decreasing to 21% in 2024, and further to 20% in 2025, before recovering to 21% in 2026 and 22% in 2027 [6] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 19.9, 13.3, and 9.9 respectively, indicating a potential undervaluation in the coming years [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto (LI.US/2015.HK) and raises the target price to $32.2, indicating a potential upside of 17% [3][10]. Core Insights - Li Auto's growth momentum for 2025 is driven by the launch of new models and expansion of its sales network, with a solid foundation for increased total deliveries this year [10]. - The company is focusing on international market expansion, which is expected to contribute to incremental growth over the next two years [10]. - Li Auto emphasizes the strategic importance of AI investments to ensure long-term competitive advantages [10]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 123.9 billion in 2023 to RMB 259.4 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31% in 2026 [4]. - Gross margin is expected to stabilize around 20.9% by 2027, while net profit is forecasted to increase from a loss of RMB 11.7 billion in 2023 to a profit of RMB 17.5 billion in 2027 [4][11]. - The target price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.7x for 2025, which is considered attractive compared to peers [10]. Performance Review and Adjustments - In Q4 2024, Li Auto's revenue reached RMB 44.3 billion, a 6% year-over-year increase, while net profit was RMB 3.5 billion, down 38% year-over-year [12]. - The company reported a gross margin of 20.3% in Q4 2024, reflecting a decline due to the introduction of new models and cost pressures [12]. - Adjustments to revenue and profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been made, with expected revenues of RMB 176.4 billion and RMB 230.5 billion respectively, reflecting a 12% reduction from previous estimates [14]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts approach, applying different price-to-earnings ratios for automotive sales and other revenues, leading to a target price of $32.2 for Li Auto [18]. - The report also provides a target price of HKD 132.0 for Li Auto-W (2015.HK), reflecting similar growth expectations [6][18].