证券研究报告 港股通 小米集团-W (1810 HK) 2Q25 业绩预览：关注"反内卷"的影响 2025 年 8 月 07 日│中国香港 消费电子 我们预计小米 2Q25 收入同比增长 29%，毛利率环比下降 0.3pp，归属于母 公司净利润同比增长 56%。其中包含手机，IoT 和互联网业务在内的原有主 业收入同比增长 14%，汽车业务实现 204 亿收入，环比增长 10%。展望全 年：1）汽车。6 月 YU7 发布后大定数据亮眼，产能仍然是收入的主要瓶颈。 此外，近期汽车行业"反内卷"趋势下，看好汽车行业高质量发展以及行业 参与者长期盈利能力提升；2）手机。海外存储原厂供应减少，存储价格呈 现上涨趋势，建议关注存储价格上涨对手机毛利率的影响。给予公司目标价 67.8 港币（前值：71.2 港币），包含非汽车（44.3 港币），汽车（23.5 港 币）。维持"买入"。 汽车业务：看好"反内卷"长期提升汽车业务盈利能力 我们预计 2Q25 小米汽车出货约 8.1 万台，ASP 环比有所提升，实现收入 204 亿人民币，环比提升 10%，随着出货量爬坡，我们预计毛利率环比提 升 0.5pp 至 23.7%。展 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company has exceeded expectations in its first half performance for 2025, with projected revenue of 40.9 to 41.1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3%, and a net profit of 5.4 to 5.6 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 30.9% to 35.8% [1][2] - The strong performance is attributed to the continuous growth of the main brand, Han Shu, and significant contributions from smaller brands like Newpage [2] - The company has optimized its brand strategy, particularly for Han Shu, which accounted for 82.3% of revenue in 2024, enhancing its multi-category layout and overall competitiveness [2] - During the major e-commerce promotion event in June 2025, Han Shu maintained its leading position in sales across multiple platforms, with significant year-on-year growth in sales on platforms like Tmall and JD [2][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts upwards for 2025 to 2027, with expected net profits of 11.6 billion, 14.6 billion, and 17.6 billion yuan respectively, reflecting increases of 10%, 6%, and 1% from previous estimates [4] - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is 27 times, indicating a positive outlook on the company's multi-brand development and net profit margin trends [4] Revenue and Profit Growth - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of 23.6% for 2025, with net profit growth expected at 48.4% [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to reach 2.91 yuan in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 45.7% [5][12] Market Position - The company has established a strong market presence, particularly in the beauty and skincare sectors, with Han Shu leading in sales rankings on platforms like Douyin and Tmall [2][3] - The report highlights the company's successful transition from a single-brand focus to a multi-brand, all-channel strategy, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company [10]. Core Insights - Yuehai Investment is a Guangdong state-owned enterprise with a strong portfolio in water supply to Hong Kong, holding a 30-year concession for the Dongshen Water Supply Project, which accounts for 70%-80% of local freshwater usage. The company is expected to enter a stable dividend phase by 2025, with an estimated dividend yield of 6.77% [3][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Yuehai Investment is primarily focused on water resources, with the Guangdong provincial government holding a 58.27% stake. The company operates five main business segments, with the water resources segment contributing 81% to the overall pre-tax profit. The Dongshen Water Supply Project is the core asset, providing stable cash flow [6][16]. Water Resources - The Dongshen Water Supply Project has a supply capacity of 2.423 billion cubic meters annually, supplying 70%-80% of Hong Kong's freshwater and over 50% of Shenzhen's water. The project is expected to generate 39% of its total supply to Hong Kong in 2024, contributing 81% to the project's total revenue [7][36]. Other Water Projects - Other water resource projects have entered a stable operational phase, with a design capacity of 5.895 billion tons/year for water supply and 1.221 billion tons/year for sewage treatment. Revenue from construction has declined significantly, indicating a shift to stable operations [8][30]. Other Business Segments - The performance of other business segments has stabilized after the removal of factors causing volatility. The contributions to pre-tax profit from various segments are 81% from water resources, 10% from property investment, and smaller percentages from other sectors [9][23]. Financial Analysis & Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve a sustainable net profit of HKD 4.1 billion in 2024, with a debt ratio of 30.9% by the end of 2024. The dividend payout ratio is expected to remain at 65% for 2023-2024, with forecasted net profits of HKD 4.54 billion, HKD 4.75 billion, and HKD 4.83 billion for 2025-2027, respectively [10][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, anticipating a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported total revenue of $1.3 billion in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 42%, and achieved a GAAP net profit of $94.32 million, marking a return to profitability [2]. - The core product, Zebutinib, has rapidly gained market share, becoming the leader in the U.S. BTKi market with Q2 sales of $950 million, up 49% year-on-year and 20% quarter-on-quarter [3]. - The company has raised its full-year guidance for 2025, projecting total revenue between $5 billion and $5.3 billion, with GAAP operating expenses of $4.1 billion to $4.4 billion and a gross margin in the mid-high 80% range [3]. - The R&D pipeline is expected to see significant catalysts in the second half of 2025, including key clinical trial milestones and regulatory approvals [4]. - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to $306 million, $763 million, and $1.186 billion, respectively, reflecting a continuous improvement in profitability [5]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q2 2025, the company achieved total revenue of $1.3 billion, a 42% increase year-on-year, and a GAAP net profit of $94.32 million, indicating a turnaround from previous losses [2]. Operational Analysis - Zebutinib's sales reached $950 million in Q2 2025, with a 49% year-on-year growth and a 20% quarter-on-quarter increase, establishing it as the leading product in the U.S. BTKi market [3]. - The company also reported sales of $194 million for Tislelizumab, growing 22% year-on-year and 13% quarter-on-quarter [3]. R&D Pipeline - The company anticipates several key R&D milestones in H2 2025, including clinical trial analyses and regulatory submissions for various products [4]. Financial Forecasts - The company has updated its revenue guidance for 2025 to between $5 billion and $5.3 billion, with a projected GAAP net profit for the year [3][5]. - The net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are set at $306 million, $763 million, and $1.186 billion, respectively, indicating strong growth potential [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company experienced a slight decrease in revenue but a modest increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 17.4 billion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of 2.2 billion yuan, up 3.8% year-on-year [1][3] - The company's total assets remained stable at 363.8 billion yuan as of June 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.6% [1] - The net interest margin slightly improved to 4.51%, up 4 basis points year-on-year, benefiting from a decline in market interest rates [2] - The asset quality is stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.05%, down 0.02 percentage points from the beginning of the year [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a return on equity (ROE) of 8.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company’s revenue from the industrial operations segment decreased by 12.6% to 6.3 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 21%, down 8 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company’s financial forecasts for net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders for 2025-2027 are projected at 4.2 billion, 4.4 billion, and 4.6 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8%, 5%, and 4% [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Insights - The company expects a net profit of 360-380 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.57%-35.71% [2][6]. - The company is focusing on three core directions: globalization, digitalization, and sustainability, which are expected to accelerate its growth [2][9]. - The brand "菜手" is anticipated to become the company's second-largest brand, aligning with current consumer trends in the restaurant industry [2][9]. - The company is well-positioned to capture growth opportunities due to its standardized management, complete supply chain, and superior single-store model [2][9]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 701 million, 845 million, and 1.021 billion yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 15.51, 12.86, and 10.65 times [2][9]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The company forecasts a net profit of 360-380 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 28.57%-35.71% [6]. Event Commentary - The net profit growth is attributed to improved operational efficiency, strict cost control, and refined management practices [9]. - The company has implemented a standardized operational management system across various functions, enhancing its operational capabilities through information technology [9]. - Recent initiatives include the launch of a high-speed train branding campaign and the renovation of its first store in Hong Kong, marking significant steps in its brand expansion strategy [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Viewpoints - The new P7 model, launched on August 6, 2025, features three versions: 702 long-range, 820 ultra-long-range, and 750 high-performance, with pre-sales starting but prices not yet disclosed. A deposit of 99 yuan can offset 3000 yuan of the purchase price, and this can be combined with other launch benefits. The company's sales are expected to accelerate due to a strong new vehicle cycle, channel transformation, and enhanced marketing systems. Cost reductions from scale, platform, and technology improvements, along with the expansion of software profitability and continued growth in overseas markets, are anticipated to lead to ongoing financial improvement [2][4][10]. Summary by Sections Event Description - The new P7 model is positioned as a flagship stylish sedan, combining technology, sportiness, and light luxury. Its dimensions are 5017mm in length, 1970mm in width, and 1407mm in height, with a wheelbase of 3008mm. The design includes a sleek front with a continuous light strip and Y-shaped light bars, available in six colors. It features an industry-first integrated flat luminous logo and advanced aerodynamics with a drag coefficient of Cd0.201, achieving 0-100 km/h in 3.7 seconds and a top speed of 230 km/h [4][10]. Sales and Profitability Outlook - The company is expected to see continuous sales growth due to a strong new vehicle cycle, with new models like the G6 and G9 already achieving significant sales success. The G7 model launched on July 3, 2025, saw over 10,000 units reserved within 9 minutes. The company anticipates achieving a quarterly profit in Q4 and expects to generate positive free cash flow for the year. Revenue for 2025 is projected to reach 99.1 billion yuan, corresponding to a price-to-sales ratio of 1.4X, with substantial improvements in software revenue contributing to better financial performance [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][8]. Core Insights - The company's performance exceeded expectations, with revenue and net profit both increasing. The estimated revenue for H1 2025 is approximately 4.09 to 4.11 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.8% to 17.3%, while net profit is expected to be between 540 to 560 million RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 30.9% to 35.8% [8]. - The main brand, Han Shu, solidified its foundation with significant growth driven by category and channel adjustments. In July, Han Shu's GMV on Douyin increased by 58%, benefiting from a shift towards self-operated sales channels [8]. - New product launches and high-end breakthroughs are opening new growth avenues. The New Page brand in the maternal and infant sector saw a GMV increase of 187% from January to July, while the hair care segment is also gaining traction [8]. - The company's strategy of multi-brand collaboration and channel optimization is yielding long-term advantages, focusing on core sectors and expanding product categories [8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 4,191 million RMB - 2024: 6,793 million RMB - 2025E: 8,513 million RMB - 2026E: 10,466 million RMB - 2027E: 12,664 million RMB - The corresponding net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 461 million RMB - 2024: 781 million RMB - 2025E: 1,061 million RMB - 2026E: 1,364 million RMB - 2027E: 1,654 million RMB - The expected growth rates for net profit are 36% for 2025, 29% for 2026, and 21% for 2027 [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its performance relative to the market [2][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in H1 2025, with revenue reaching RMB 17.087 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, and a net profit of RMB 1.287 billion, up 33.2% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [9]. - The upward revision of profit forecasts is attributed to the decline in raw material prices, improved capacity utilization, and cost optimization, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being RMB 2.315 billion, RMB 2.579 billion, and RMB 2.843 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 25%, 11%, and 10% [9]. - The company is recognized as an industry leader, with its food business driving structural upgrades in instant noodles and its beverage segment expanding its multi-category layout [9]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 28.591 billion - 2024: RMB 30.332 billion - 2025E: RMB 32.364 billion - 2026E: RMB 34.473 billion - 2027E: RMB 36.580 billion - The expected growth rates for revenue are 1.2%, 6.1%, 6.7%, 6.5%, and 6.1% respectively [3][10]. - Net profit forecasts are as follows: - 2023: RMB 1.667 billion - 2024: RMB 1.849 billion - 2025E: RMB 2.315 billion - 2026E: RMB 2.579 billion - 2027E: RMB 2.843 billion - The projected year-on-year growth rates for net profit are 36.4%, 11.0%, 25.2%, 11.4%, and 10.2% respectively [3][10]. Business Segment Performance - The food segment achieved a revenue of RMB 5.382 billion in H1 2025, with an 8.8% year-on-year growth, driven primarily by the instant noodle business [9]. - The beverage segment reported a revenue of RMB 10.788 billion, reflecting a 7.6% year-on-year increase, with notable growth in tea, juice, and milk tea categories [9]. Margin and Cost Efficiency - The company achieved a gross margin of 34.32% in H1 2025, an increase of 0.48 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower raw material costs and improved capacity utilization [9]. - The sales expense ratio decreased to 22.08%, down 1.17 percentage points year-on-year, due to optimized expense management [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Outperform" for BeiGene, indicating an expected total return over the next 12-18 months that exceeds the relevant market benchmark [16]. Core Insights - BeiGene reported 2Q25 results with revenue of USD 1.32 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 42%. The net income attributable to shareholders was USD 94 million, compared to a loss of USD 120 million in the same quarter last year, marking the second consecutive quarter of profitability in recurring operations. Management has raised the full-year revenue guidance to USD 5.0-5.3 billion from the previous guidance of USD 4.9-5.3 billion [2][6][7]. Summary by Sections Revenue Breakdown - Zanubrutinib generated revenue of USD 950 million, up 49% year-on-year and 20% quarter-on-quarter. U.S. sales accounted for USD 684 million (up 21% q-q), European sales were USD 150 million (up 30% q-q), and China sales were USD 83 million (up 3% q-q). Tislelizumab generated revenue of USD 194 million, up 22% year-on-year. Sales from Amgen-partnered products in China reached USD 130 million, up 40% year-on-year, primarily driven by growth in XGEVA [3][9]. Financial Metrics - The company achieved a gross margin of 87.5%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year. R&D expenses were USD 530 million, up 16% year-on-year, with an R&D expense ratio of 40%, down 9 percentage points year-on-year. SG&A expenses were USD 540 million, up 21% year-on-year, with an SG&A expense ratio of 41%, down 6.9 percentage points year-on-year. Operating profit for the quarter was USD 88 million, compared to a loss of USD 107 million in 2Q24 [3][7]. Future Catalysts - Key future catalysts for BeiGene include the readout of phase II data for Sonrotoclax (BCL2) in R/R MCL and the submission of a global accelerated approval application. The company also anticipates the approval of Tislelizumab for early NSCLC in the EU and plans to initiate phase III trials for CDK4 in HR+/HER2- breast cancer in 2026 [4].