中广核矿业(01164):全球核电复苏下的铀资源核心资产,新长协定价机制抬升业绩预期
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-07-11 08:31
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][10]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a core asset in uranium resources, benefiting from the global nuclear power recovery and a new long-term pricing mechanism that enhances performance expectations [5]. - Backed by China General Nuclear Power Group, the company has a leading global resource layout and long-term growth potential, being the only pure uranium listed company in East Asia [5][10]. - The company has a dual-driven model of "self-produced + international trade," which stabilizes growth and profitability [6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The closing price is HKD 2.26, with a market capitalization of HKD 17,177.54 million [3]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 86.24 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17%, with a net profit of HKD 3.42 billion [6][21]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are HKD 5.73 billion, HKD 9.42 billion, and HKD 11.83 billion, reflecting growth rates of 67.5%, 64.4%, and 25.6% respectively [8][10]. Business Model - The business model consists of self-produced trade and international trade, with the international trade segment providing stable profit through price differences [19]. - The company holds a 49% equity stake in several uranium mines in Kazakhstan, ensuring a stable supply and cost advantage [5][41]. Pricing Mechanism - The new pricing mechanism for 2026-2028 includes a base price (BP) and spot price (SP) structure, with BP set to increase annually, enhancing profit margins [6][49]. Market Outlook - The global nuclear power revival is expected to drive uranium demand, with an average annual growth rate of over 4% from 2024 to 2040 [7]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the tightening supply of uranium due to high resource concentration and declining exploration investments [7]. Valuation - The company’s projected P/E ratio for 2026 is 18X, which is below the industry average of 29X, indicating potential undervaluation [10].
卓越教育集团(03978):华南K12龙头,素质教育转型成功重回扩张
Guoyuan Securities2· 2025-07-11 06:27
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 6.89, indicating a potential upside of 26.9% from the current price of HKD 5.43 [7]. Core Insights - The company, 卓越教育集团 (Excellence Education Group), is a leading player in the K12 education sector in South China, focusing on comprehensive growth services for children. The company has successfully transitioned to quality education, with a significant increase in net profit expected in the coming years [4][6]. - The K12 education market in Guangdong is projected to grow, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% to 7% from 2025 to 2030, driven by strong demand for quality non-subject education [5]. - The company has a strong brand reputation and teaching capabilities, with a high retention rate of nearly 80% for summer courses in Guangzhou. The introduction of AI-driven courses aligns with national trends, further enhancing its market position [6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 1997 and listed in 2018, the company has shifted its focus from traditional subject education to quality education, particularly after the "double reduction" policy in 2021. The revenue from quality education is expected to account for 64.74% of total revenue by 2024 [16][21]. Industry Analysis - The "double reduction" policy has led to a significant reduction in the number of K9 subject training institutions, with a decrease of 96% in offline institutions. This has created opportunities for quality education providers [43][44]. - The demand for quality education remains strong, with increasing enrollment rates in high schools and a growing emphasis on comprehensive student development [48]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of HKD 19.95 billion, HKD 23.81 billion, and HKD 28.11 billion from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of HKD 3.25 billion, HKD 3.82 billion, and HKD 4.46 billion, reflecting robust growth rates [7][8].
极兔速递-W(01519):二季度东南亚市场表现强劲,单季度包裹量增速创上市以来新高
Bank of China Securities· 2025-07-11 06:24
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the company's stock price will outperform the benchmark index by more than 20% over the next 6-12 months [3][5]. Core Views - The report highlights strong performance in the Southeast Asian market, with a year-on-year package volume growth of 65.9% to 1.69 billion packages in Q2 2025. The total global package volume reached 7.39 billion, reflecting a 23.5% increase year-on-year [3][8]. - The company is expected to benefit from the e-commerce boom in Southeast Asia and operational efficiency improvements in China, which may enhance profitability under the "anti-involution" policy [5][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total package volume of 7.39 billion in Q2 2025, with a 23.5% year-on-year growth. The Southeast Asian market contributed significantly with a 65.9% increase, while the Chinese market saw a 14.7% growth [3][8]. - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 2.728 billion, 4.485 billion, and 6.341 billion RMB, representing growth rates of 240.1%, 64.4%, and 41.4% respectively [5][7]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in the Southeast Asian e-commerce sector, supported by strategic partnerships with major platforms like Shopee and Lazada. The company is positioned to capitalize on this growth, maintaining its market leadership [8]. - The "anti-involution" policy in China is expected to ease price competition, allowing for improved profitability in domestic operations as the company optimizes its efficiency [8]. Valuation Metrics - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of 0.30, 0.50, and 0.71 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 29.7, 18.1, and 12.8 [5][7]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 63.056 billion RMB in 2023 to 109.376 billion RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 13% [7][9].
蔚来-SW(09866):L90预售价超预期,重申关注边际改善迎来的反弹机会
BOCOM International· 2025-07-11 06:01
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NIO Inc. (9866 HK) with a target price of 48.96, indicating a potential upside of 77.4% from the closing price of 27.60 as of March 24, 2025 [4][5]. Core Insights - The launch of the NIO sub-brand's second model, the L90, has exceeded expectations with a starting price of 279,900 RMB, which can be as low as 190,900 RMB with battery-as-a-service (BaaS) options, making it highly competitive in the large electric SUV market [1][2]. - The L90 features exceptional space design with a length of 5,145 mm and a wheelbase of 3,110 mm, offering spacious seating configurations and significant storage capacity, addressing consumer demand for "large space + high cost performance" [2][3]. - The vehicle is equipped with advanced technology and safety features, including a 17.2-inch central control screen, a 17.3-inch rear entertainment screen, and a robust safety structure, positioning it as a strong competitor in the family SUV segment [2][3]. Summary by Sections Product Launch - The L90 is positioned as a family-oriented large electric SUV with a competitive pricing strategy, aiming to disrupt the market by offering superior space and features compared to similar models [1][2]. Technical Specifications - The L90 boasts a lightweight design, with the single-motor version weighing only 2.25 tons, and a dual-motor version at 2.36 tons, which is nearly 200 kg lighter than comparable gasoline vehicles, enhancing efficiency and range [2][3]. Market Strategy - NIO's strategy includes a focus on intelligent and safety features, utilizing a unique competitive approach that emphasizes technology and pricing to capture market share in the family SUV sector [2][3].
康方生物(09926):依沃西多项适应症全面推进,I/O+ADC布局差异化显著,上调目标价
BOCOM International· 2025-07-11 04:01
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company 康方生物 (9926 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 140.00, indicating a potential upside of 29.3% from the current price of HKD 108.30 [2][12][13]. Core Insights - The company is advancing multiple indications for its drug 依沃西, with a significant focus on I/O and ADC strategies, which are expected to differentiate its offerings in the market [2][7]. - The report highlights the promising overseas approval prospects for 依沃西, particularly for its application in treating 2L+ EGFRm NSCLC, as the efficacy shown in the HARMONi study surpasses existing chemotherapy options [7]. - 康方生物 is also initiating several Phase III studies in mainland China for various cancers, indicating a broadening of its therapeutic scope [7]. - The report anticipates a peak sales adjustment for 依沃西 in China to RMB 7.1 billion [7]. - The company is starting overseas development for 卡度尼利, with a recent approval for a new indication in first-line cervical cancer, and plans for a Phase II study in second-line liver cancer [7]. - The ADC development strategy is gaining traction, with the first ADC (HER3) entering clinical trials and the first bispecific ADC AK146D1 completing patient enrollment [7]. - The report emphasizes the rich pipeline of catalysts, including upcoming data releases and negotiations for multiple products in Q4 2025 [7]. Financial Overview - The company’s projected revenues for 2025 are estimated at RMB 3,506 million, with a significant growth trajectory expected in subsequent years, reaching RMB 8,053 million by 2027 [6][15]. - The net profit is projected to recover to RMB 402 million in 2025, with further increases anticipated in the following years [6][15]. - The report notes a substantial year-to-date stock price increase of 78.42% [4]. - The company’s market capitalization stands at approximately HKD 97.08 billion [4]. Valuation Model - The DCF valuation model indicates an equity value of RMB 114,241 million, translating to a per-share value of HKD 140.00 [9]. - The report reflects adjustments in revenue forecasts, with a decrease in expected revenues for 2025 and 2026 compared to previous estimates [8]. Market Position - 康方生物 is positioned within the biotechnology sector, focusing on innovative therapies that leverage both I/O and ADC technologies, aiming to capture new market opportunities [2][12]. - The report suggests that the company’s strategic initiatives and product pipeline could lead to sustained long-term value creation [7].
阿里巴巴-W(09988):坚定投入闪购,预计利润短期承压
HTSC· 2025-07-11 02:12
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 150.00 and USD 152.90 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience short-term profit pressure due to increased investment in flash sales, although its e-commerce business is projected to perform steadily in 1QFY26 with a year-on-year growth of 11% in CMR [1][2]. - The cloud business is anticipated to continue its accelerated growth, with a projected revenue increase of 22% year-on-year in 1QFY26, supported by strong external demand [1][2]. - The report highlights the rapid growth of the flash sales business, which launched on May 2, and the significant investments made to attract both merchants and consumers [3][4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue for 1QFY26 is expected to increase by 1% year-on-year to CNY 245.7 billion, with adjusted EBITA projected to decline by 16.5% to CNY 37.6 billion due to increased spending on flash sales [2][11]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for FY26, FY27, and FY28 has been reduced by 20.6%, 22.2%, and 21.3% respectively, reflecting the higher-than-expected investments in flash sales [4][11]. Business Segments and Performance - The report notes that the flash sales business has seen a rapid increase in daily order volume, reaching over 80 million orders per day, with significant user engagement improvements [3][4]. - The company’s various business segments, including the Taobao Group and local life services, are expected to show mixed performance, with some segments continuing to reduce losses while others face challenges [2][11]. Valuation and Estimates - The report adjusts the valuation based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach, with new target prices reflecting a decrease due to increased competition and investment pressures [4][14]. - The estimated non-GAAP net profit for FY26 is projected at CNY 134 billion, with a corresponding PE ratio of 13.36 [10][12].
中银航空租赁(02588):中银航空租赁(2588HK):供给略改善,出售14架飞机
HTSC· 2025-07-11 02:12
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The supply of aircraft is slightly improving, with Boeing and Airbus delivering a total of 320 aircraft in 2Q25, up from 266 in 1Q25. The company delivered 13 aircraft in 2Q25, an increase from 11 in 1Q25, but sold 14 aircraft, resulting in a decrease in owned aircraft to 441 [1][2][3] - The company expects a core ROE of 10.6% for 2025, roughly in line with 10.5% in 2024, indicating stable performance despite potential challenges in the debt market due to fluctuating U.S. Treasury rates [1][4] Summary by Sections Supply Chain Improvement - The report highlights that the recovery of aircraft manufacturers' capacity is crucial for the company's performance. The increase in aircraft deliveries is expected to positively impact leasing rates and ROE if the trend continues [2] Fleet Management - In 2Q25, the company executed 75 transactions, including the delivery of 13 aircraft and the sale of 14 aircraft, leading to a net decrease in owned aircraft. The average age of sold aircraft was 10.4 years, which is higher than the overall fleet average of 5 years. The company maintains a strong order book with 351 aircraft on order [3] Financial Projections - The company forecasts a net profit of USD 702.62 million for 2025, with a slight decrease from 2024. The target price is set at HKD 82, based on a 1.06x 2025E PB ratio [5][10]
极兔速递-W(01519):逐鹿海外电商高增,龙头优势尽显
HTSC· 2025-07-11 02:12
Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy" for the company [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the rapid expansion of e-commerce in Southeast Asia, with a projected market share increase from 28.6% in 2024 to 30% in 2025 [5][6]. - The Southeast Asian e-commerce retail market is forecasted to grow from $189.8 billion in 2023 to $373.6 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.5% [5]. - The company is projected to achieve substantial profit growth, with net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 revised upward by 5%, 6%, and 3% respectively, reaching $360.6 million, $690.5 million, and $898.7 million [8]. - The report highlights the company's competitive advantages, including cost reductions through scale effects and the ability to integrate logistics across various e-commerce platforms [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: $10,259 million in 2024, $12,484 million in 2025, $14,693 million in 2026, and $16,979 million in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 15.93%, 21.69%, 17.70%, and 15.56% respectively [4]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from $0.01 in 2024 to $0.10 in 2027 [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to rise from 3.61% in 2024 to 20.80% in 2027 [4]. Market Position - The company has established itself as the largest express delivery service provider in Southeast Asia, benefiting from significant market share and cost advantages [5][6]. - The report indicates that the company’s total parcel volume in Southeast Asia increased by 65.9% year-on-year in the second quarter, reaching 1.69 billion parcels [10]. Valuation - The target price for the company's stock has been raised by 44% to HKD 10.80, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19.0x for the years 2025-2027, reflecting the company's higher-than-industry growth prospects [8].
京东集团-SW(09618):2Q25前瞻:电商主站增长稳健,外卖投入加码影响短期利润
HTSC· 2025-07-11 02:12
Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is maintained as "Buy" [6][4]. Core Views - JD Group is expected to achieve steady growth in its retail performance for Q2 2025, driven by the "trade-in" policy, with revenue and profit continuing to show double-digit growth. However, increased investment in new businesses like food delivery is anticipated to exert pressure on short-term profits [1][2]. - The total revenue for Q2 2025 is projected to increase by 15.6% year-on-year to RMB 337 billion, with the retail segment expected to grow by 16.5% to RMB 299.5 billion, reflecting robust growth in the electronics and daily necessities categories [2][11]. - The food delivery business is gaining traction, with significant growth in operational metrics such as daily orders and the number of merchants and delivery personnel. The company plans to invest over RMB 10 billion to support brand sales growth [3][4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 is expected to be RMB 4.36 billion, representing a 70% year-on-year decline, primarily due to the high investment in the food delivery segment [1][4]. - The forecast for non-GAAP net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 has been revised down by 45.1%, 16.7%, and 5.1% respectively, to RMB 22.1 billion, RMB 41.5 billion, and RMB 55.1 billion, mainly due to higher-than-expected food delivery investments [4][11]. Valuation - The target price based on SOTP valuation is set at USD 45.79 per ADS and HKD 179.72 per ordinary share, reflecting a downward adjustment from previous estimates due to a reduction in the valuation multiples for the e-commerce business [4][14]. - The target price for the retail business is set at USD 31.75 per ADS, based on a non-GAAP PE of 10.0 times the 2025 forecast, which is below the comparable company average of 14.5 times [14][15]. Operational Metrics - The food delivery segment has shown rapid growth, with daily order volumes exceeding 25 million and over 1.5 million quality restaurants onboarded by June 1, 2025 [3][4]. - The active user engagement on the JD main app has improved significantly, with DAU growth rates of 27.3%, 44.8%, and 33.1% in April, May, and June 2025 respectively [3][4].
京东集团-SW(09618):25Q2前瞻:Q2零售收入维持稳健增长,外卖新业务加大投入
CMS· 2025-07-11 01:36
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for JD Group [2][5]. Core Views - JD Group is expected to achieve a total revenue growth of 15.5% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with Non-GAAP net profit estimated at approximately 4.5 billion yuan [1][5]. - The retail revenue is projected to grow by 15% year-on-year, with GMV and revenue maintaining double-digit growth rates [5]. - The company is increasing investments in its new takeaway business, which is expected to impact short-term profits but will enhance long-term growth and synergy with its core business [1][5]. Financial Data and Valuation - For the fiscal year 2023, the main revenue is projected at 1,084,662 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4% [2]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 35,200 million yuan in 2023, reflecting a 25% year-on-year increase [2]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is 8.34 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.5 [2][9]. - The target valuation for the stock is set between 133 and 167 HKD, with the current stock price at 125.3 HKD [2][5]. Business Performance - The report anticipates that the retail operating profit margin will remain stable year-on-year, despite increased investment in the takeaway business [5]. - The takeaway business has shown rapid growth, with peak order volumes exceeding 25 million and significant market share in quality takeaway services [5]. - The company is focusing on enhancing the synergy between its takeaway and e-commerce operations, with cross-selling trends improving in recent months [5]. Key Financial Ratios - The return on equity (ROE) is reported at 17.7% [3]. - The asset-liability ratio stands at 54.5% [3]. - The projected net profit margin for 2023 is 2.2% [8].