Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to continue outperforming its peers, driven by an enhanced competitive position in the domestic supply chain and diversified process platform capabilities. The projected net profits for 2025-2026 are $870 million and $1.07 billion, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at $1.27 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 76.7%, 23.3%, and 18.6% [5] - The current stock price of HKD 46 corresponds to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 54.0, 43.8, and 37.0 for 2025-2027, and price-to-book (P/B) ratios of 2.0, 1.9, and 1.7 for the same periods [5] Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of $2.2 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.7%, with a gross margin of 22.6%, exceeding market expectations [6] - The company anticipates a revenue growth of 6%-8% for Q1 2025, driven by increased demand from downstream sales and inventory replenishment [7] - The projected revenue for 2025 is expected to reach $10 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 25% [7] Financial Metrics and Valuation Indicators - Revenue and net profit forecasts for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2023: Revenue of $6.32 billion, Net profit of $903 million - 2024: Revenue of $8.03 billion, Net profit of $493 million - 2025: Revenue of $9.95 billion, Net profit of $871 million - 2026: Revenue of $11.22 billion, Net profit of $1.07 billion - 2027: Revenue of $12.43 billion, Net profit of $1.27 billion - The gross margin is projected to improve from 19.3% in 2023 to 25.8% in 2027 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for MGM China [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q4 2024 exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching HKD 8.71 billion, a 10% increase quarter-on-quarter, and recovering to 128.3% of the same period in 2019 [6] - The company achieved a significant increase in market share, with VIP and mass market gaming revenue growing by 29.9% and 8.0% respectively, leading to an overall market share increase to approximately 15.6% [6] - The report forecasts continued growth in revenue and adjusted property EBITDA for 2024-2026, with target prices set at HKD 16.6 [6] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from HKD 24,684.2 million in 2023 to HKD 31,381.9 million in 2024, representing a 369% year-on-year increase [1] - Adjusted property EBITDA is expected to rise from HKD 7,235.3 million in 2023 to HKD 9,244.1 million in 2024, reflecting a 28% increase [1] - The diluted earnings per share are forecasted to increase from HKD 0.69 in 2023 to HKD 1.34 in 2024 [1] Market Performance - The stock closed at HKD 9.71, with a market capitalization of HKD 36,899 million [4] - The stock has a historical price range of HKD 9.00 to HKD 14.92 over the past year [4] Balance Sheet Highlights - The total assets are projected to be HKD 29,181 million in 2023, with a significant portion in non-current assets [7] - The company has a debt ratio of 100.2%, indicating a high level of leverage [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China National Building Material (CNBM) with a target price of HKD 4.53, based on a 2025 P/E ratio of 8x [7]. Core Views - CNBM is a leading state-owned enterprise in the building materials sector, with significant confidence in its development demonstrated through a large-scale share buyback [1][2]. - The company has faced performance pressures since 2022, but forecasts suggest a potential recovery in profits from 2024 onwards, driven by reduced capital expenditures and financial costs [1][40]. - The report highlights the company's strong market position, with seven business segments ranking first globally, including cement and new materials [1][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - CNBM is directly managed by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, with a diversified portfolio across basic building materials, new materials, and engineering services [1][14]. - The company has undergone significant mergers and acquisitions, enhancing its scale and market reach [1][19]. 2. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at CNY 199.3 billion, CNY 216.2 billion, and CNY 229 billion, with corresponding net profits of CNY 1.2 billion, CNY 4.4 billion, and CNY 5.6 billion [11]. - The company has experienced a decline in revenue and profits since 2022, with a notable drop in the basic building materials segment [19][44]. 3. Business Segments Basic Building Materials - The basic building materials segment, primarily cement, has seen a decline in profitability, with a revenue drop of 30.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2024 [3][44]. - The segment's gross margin has decreased significantly, from 27% in 2020 to 8.8% in the first half of 2024 [44]. New Materials - The new materials segment has shown revenue growth, but profits have slightly declined, with a revenue increase of 0.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2024 [4]. - The segment's gross margin was reported at 24% in the first half of 2024 [4]. Engineering Services - The engineering services segment has maintained stable revenue and profit growth, with a revenue increase of 2% year-on-year in the first half of 2024 [5]. - The segment's gross margin has shown a steady increase, reaching 19% [5]. 4. Share Buyback and Valuation - The company announced a share buyback plan to repurchase up to 841,749,304 H shares at a price of HKD 4.03 per share, representing approximately 9.98% of the issued shares [2][26]. - The buyback is expected to enhance shareholder value and improve the company's stock price, which has been trading below its net asset value [2][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price revised down from HK$17.50 to HK$15.00 [5][9][12]. Core Insights - The company's core profit is expected to decline significantly from RMB 11.35 billion in 2023 to RMB 6.90 billion in 2024, primarily due to a decrease in sales and profit margins, alongside impairment losses [1][11]. - The report highlights that recurring income will support the company's performance in 2024, with a projected growth of 7.4% to RMB 26.7 billion, driven by rental and service income [1][9]. - The company is transitioning towards becoming a rental stock, with expectations that its profitability and financing will continue to be impacted by its real estate development business during 2025-2026 [2][9]. Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to decline from RMB 180.74 billion in 2023 to RMB 120.24 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 33.5% [3][10]. - Gross contracted sales are expected to drop from RMB 173.49 billion in 2023 to RMB 101.12 billion in 2024, a decline of 41.7% [10]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to decrease from 16.9% in 2023 to 15.1% in 2024, reflecting the impact of high land costs and falling property prices [1][10]. Debt and Financing - The company plans to use its land investment budget for deleveraging, aiming to repay approximately 10% of its total debt in 2024 [2][9]. - The report notes that the company has a significant amount of debt maturing in 2025, including RMB 10 billion in bonds and RMB 9.2 billion in syndicated loans [2][9]. Dividend Policy - The company is expected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of around 30%, despite the anticipated decline in core profits [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China National Building Material (CNBM) with a target price of HKD 4.53, based on a 2025 P/E ratio of 8x [7]. Core Views - CNBM is a leading state-owned enterprise in the building materials sector, with significant confidence in its development demonstrated through a large share buyback program [1][2]. - The company has faced performance pressure since 2022, but forecasts suggest a potential recovery in profits due to reduced capital expenditures and financial costs [1][40]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at HKD 199.3 billion, HKD 216.2 billion, and HKD 229.0 billion, with corresponding net profits of HKD 1.2 billion, HKD 4.4 billion, and HKD 5.6 billion [1][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - CNBM is directly managed by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, with operations in basic building materials, new materials, and engineering services [1][14]. - The company has a global leading position in seven business segments, including cement and glass fiber, and operates 13 listed companies [1][14]. 2. Basic Building Materials - The basic building materials segment, primarily cement, has seen declining profitability since 2022, with a revenue drop of 30.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2024 [3][44]. - The segment's gross margin has decreased from 27% in 2020 to 8.8% in the first half of 2024 [3][44]. 3. New Materials - The new materials segment has shown revenue growth, but profits have slightly declined since 2022, with a revenue increase of 0.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2024 [4]. - Revenue projections for this segment from 2024 to 2026 are expected to be HKD 49.6 billion, HKD 59.1 billion, and HKD 62.8 billion, with net profits of HKD 2.7 billion, HKD 3.6 billion, and HKD 4.1 billion respectively [4][16]. 4. Engineering Services - The engineering services segment has maintained stable revenue and has seen a slight increase in profits since 2021, with a revenue increase of 2% year-on-year in the first half of 2024 [5]. - Future revenue estimates for this segment are HKD 50.3 billion, HKD 55.8 billion, and HKD 61.6 billion for 2024-2026, with net profits of HKD 1.5 billion, HKD 1.8 billion, and HKD 1.9 billion [5][16]. 5. Financial Performance and Valuation - The company has experienced a significant decline in net profit, with a forecasted drop of 69% in 2024, followed by a recovery of 262% in 2025 [11]. - The current price-to-book ratio is at a historical low of 0.26x, indicating potential undervaluation [2][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for MGM China [6][7] Core Views - The company's performance in Q4 2024 exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching HKD 79.2 billion, a 9.3% increase quarter-on-quarter, and a recovery to 139.1% of Q4 2019 levels [6] - The adjusted property EBITDA for Q4 2024 was HKD 21.3 billion, a 7.2% quarter-on-quarter increase, surpassing market expectations by 3% [6] - The company is expected to attract more inbound tourists due to the opening of "MGM 2049" and the renovation of suites, positively impacting revenue [6] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Total revenue projections for 2024-2026 are HKD 31,381.9 million, HKD 33,635.5 million, and HKD 35,193.5 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27%, 7%, and 5% [6][7] - The adjusted property EBITDA forecasts for the same period are HKD 9,244.1 million, HKD 10,206.2 million, and HKD 10,850.7 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 28%, 10%, and 6% [6][7] - The current stock price corresponds to EV/adjusted property EBITDA multiples of 6.0, 5.4, and 5.1 for 2024-2026 [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kingdee International (0268.HK) [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 14% in 2024, reaching 6.45 billion RMB, with specific segments like Cangqiong and Xinghan projected to maintain over 40% growth [1] - Operating cash flow is anticipated to exceed 900 million RMB in 2024, with a narrowing loss forecasted to 100 million RMB, indicating a path towards breakeven in 2025 [1] - The company is focusing on subscription-first and AI-first strategies, benefiting from the domestic substitution trend and rapid order growth in its cloud services [5] Summary by Sections Revenue and Growth - The overall revenue for 2024 is projected at 6.45 billion RMB, with Cangqiong and Xinghan expected to grow at over 40% [1] - The company has signed over 250 clients as part of its strategy to replace foreign vendors like SAP and Oracle, with a net renewal rate of 97% for Cangqiong and Xinghan as of Q3 2024 [2] Market Position - Kingdee has maintained its leading position in the mid-sized enterprise market, serving over 42,000 clients and holding the top market share for four consecutive years [3] - The launch of the new flagship version of Kingdee Cloud Xingkong in November 2024 is expected to enhance product offerings and profitability [3] AI Integration - The company has integrated DeepSeek into its SaaS applications, aiming to provide efficient and cost-effective solutions, including private deployment options for clients [4] - The introduction of the Cangqiong APP as an AI management assistant is expected to drive significant revenue growth in AI-related services, projected to reach tens of millions in 2024 [4] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are set at 6.45 billion, 7.47 billion, and 8.63 billion RMB respectively, with a gradual improvement in profitability expected [6] - The company anticipates a return to profitability with a net profit of 175 million RMB in 2025 and 385 million RMB in 2026 [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to continue outperforming its peers, with projected net profits of 870 million USD, 1.07 billion USD, and 1.27 billion USD for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 76.7%, 23.3%, and 18.6% [5] - The current stock price of 46 HKD corresponds to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 54.0, 43.8, and 37.0 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, and price-to-book (P/B) ratios of 2.0, 1.9, and 1.7 for the same years [5] - The company is expected to benefit from an improved position in the domestic supply chain, which is anticipated to drive a stable upward trend in its fundamentals [5] Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2024, the company reported revenues of 2.2 billion USD, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.7%, with a gross margin of 22.6%, exceeding market expectations [6] - The company achieved a net profit of 110 million USD in Q4 2024, a quarter-on-quarter decline of 28% [6] - The revenue forecast for 2025 is projected to grow by 25%, reaching 10 billion USD, outperforming the average growth rate of 4%-9% in the semiconductor manufacturing industry [7] Valuation Metrics - The company's revenue for 2023 was 6.32 billion USD, with a year-on-year decline of 13.1%, while 2024 revenue is expected to grow by 27% to 8.03 billion USD [8] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 19.3% in 2023 to 21.9% in 2025, with net profit margins increasing from 14.3% in 2023 to 8.7% in 2025 [8] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.11 USD, with a P/E ratio of 54.0 [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][12]. Core Insights - The core insight indicates that the demand for core products has bottomed out, and cost reduction and efficiency improvements are expected to drive margin recovery. The revenue for 2025 is projected to be $2.2 billion, representing an 11% year-over-year growth, driven by new customer integrations and a bottoming out of power products. The gross margin is anticipated to improve to 12.1% due to cost reduction strategies [4][5]. Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The financial summary shows the following projections: - Revenue (in million USD): 2023A: 2,286, 2024A: 2,004, 2025E: 2,233, 2026E: 2,708, 2027E: 3,344 - Year-over-Year Growth (YOY%): 2025E: 11.4%, 2026E: 21.3%, 2027E: 23.5% - Net Profit (in million USD): 2025E: 94, 2026E: 122, 2027E: 146 - Gross Margin (%): 2025E: 12.1%, 2026E: 11.9%, 2027E: 12.3% - P/E Ratios: 2025E: 53.1, 2026E: 40.8, 2027E: 34.2 - P/B Ratios: 2025E: 0.8, 2026E: 0.8, 2027E: 0.9 [8][4]. Performance Guidance - The company provided a revenue guidance for Q1 2025 of $5.3-5.5 billion, indicating a stable outlook. The gross margin guidance is set at 9%-11%, which is lower than market expectations due to depreciation from new plant capacity release. However, the company expects at least a 10% revenue growth for 2025 [6][5]. Market Position - The current stock price is HKD 26.3, with a market capitalization of HKD 452.01 billion. The stock has seen a 128.94% turnover rate over the past three months, indicating active trading [4].