证券研究报告 | 2025年10月31日 中国石油（601857.SH） 优于大市 天然气板块盈利大幅改善，第三季度归母净利润 423 亿元 2025 年单三季度归母净利润 423 亿元，业绩超预期。2025 年前三季度公司 实现营收 2.17 万亿元（同比-3.9%），主要由于原油、成品油价格下降；实 现归母净利润 1262.8 亿元（同比-4.9%），实现扣非归母净利润 1268.7 亿 元（同比-6.4%）。2025 年第三季度公司实现营收 7191.6 亿元（同比+2.3%， 环比+3.2%），实现归母净利润 422.9 亿元（同比-3.9%，环比+13.7%），实 现扣非归母净利润 427.6 亿元（同比-2.0%，环比+13.9%），业绩超预期。 原油产量稳中有升，加快新能源业务发展。2025 年前三季度公司油气与新能 源板块实现经营利润 1251.0 亿元（同比-13.3%），主要由于原油销售价格 下降，实现油气当量产量 1377.2 百万桶油当量（同比+2.6%），其中原油产 量 714.3 百万桶（同比+0.8%），原油平均实现价格 65.6 美元/桶（同比 -14.7%），油气单位操作成本 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3] Core Views - The company achieved positive growth in both revenue and profit, with operating income reaching 640 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 269.9 billion yuan, a 0.3% increase year-on-year [1][3] - The company's total assets grew by 9.2% year-on-year to 52.8 trillion yuan, with deposits increasing by 7.1% to 37.3 trillion yuan and loans rising by 7.3% to 30.5 trillion yuan [1][2] - The net interest margin decreased to 1.28%, down 15 basis points year-on-year, impacting net interest income which fell by 0.7% [2][3] - Non-interest income saw a significant increase of 27.6%, primarily driven by growth in investment income [2][3] Financial Summary - For the forecasted years 2025-2027, the company is expected to have net profits of 360.8 billion, 365.8 billion, and 384.1 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -1.4%, 1.4%, and 5.0% [3][4] - The diluted EPS for the same period is projected to be 0.97, 0.98, and 1.04 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 8.1, 8.0, and 7.6 [3][4] - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio stood at 13.57%, a decrease of 0.53 percentage points from the beginning of the year [1][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 8.88 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.55 billion yuan, down 17.4% year-on-year [2] - For Q3 2025, the revenue was 1.93 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 26.8%, while the net profit was 320 million yuan, a decrease of 48.7% year-on-year [2] - The revenue breakdown shows that the special A+ and special A categories achieved revenues of 5.43 billion yuan and 2.87 billion yuan respectively for Q1-Q3 2025, with year-on-year changes of -16.0% and +0.3% [2] - The company is undergoing inventory destocking, with a net profit margin of 16.6% for Q3 2025, down 7.1 percentage points year-on-year [3] Summary by Sections Revenue Analysis - For Q1-Q3 2025, domestic and international revenues were 7.95 billion yuan and 800 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -12.4% and +0.1% respectively [2] - In Q3 2025, domestic revenue was 1.70 billion yuan, down 29.8%, while international revenue was 180 million yuan, down 13.8% [2] Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 75.0%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the sales expense ratio increased by 9.5 percentage points [3] - The report forecasts a revenue decline of 12.0% in 2025, followed by growth of 9.2% and 12.5% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [4] Earnings Forecast - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.75 billion yuan, 3.04 billion yuan, and 3.56 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 2.20 yuan, 2.44 yuan, and 2.86 yuan [4] - The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 17.4, 15.7, and 13.4 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Midea Group is maintained at "Buy-A" with a 12-month target price of 94.68 CNY, corresponding to a 15x dynamic P/E ratio for 2026 [4][5]. Core Insights - Midea Group reported a total revenue of 364.72 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 13.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 37.88 billion CNY, up 19.5% year-over-year. In Q3 alone, the revenue was 112.38 billion CNY, with a year-over-year growth of 9.9%, and the net profit was 11.87 billion CNY, reflecting an 8.9% increase year-over-year [1][2]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In Q3, Midea's revenue growth was steady, with the C-end business showing mixed results due to regional subsidy limits. Air conditioner shipments decreased by 9.3% year-over-year, while refrigerator and washing machine sales increased by 5.1% and 2.3%, respectively. The B-end business, particularly in new energy and industrial technology, saw revenue growth of 21% to 25% year-over-year [2][3]. Profitability - The gross margin for Q3 improved by 1.1 percentage points year-over-year, attributed to reduced online price competition for air conditioners and an increase in the proportion of overseas sales. The net profit margin for Q3 was 10.6%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points year-over-year [2][3]. Cash Flow - Operating cash flow for Q3 saw a significant decline, with a net outflow of 6.99 billion CNY year-over-year, primarily due to a decrease in cash received from sales. However, other current liabilities increased by 12.87 billion CNY year-over-year, providing a buffer for future operations [3]. Financial Forecast - Midea Group's projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 5.78 CNY, 6.31 CNY, and 6.92 CNY, respectively. The company is expected to maintain a robust growth trajectory, supported by its diversified business model and market responsiveness [4][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company experienced a recovery in Q3 2025, with revenue growth of 7.31% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 4.55%, indicating a return to positive profit growth for the quarter [1][6] - Gross margin has shown a steady increase, and cost control measures have effectively reduced expenses compared to previous quarters [6] - The company is focusing on retail transformation, brand management, overseas expansion, and enhancing channel capabilities, which are expected to drive future growth [6] Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2023, total revenue is projected at 13,661 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2% [2] - The company anticipates revenue of 15,355 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a 5% increase, and 16,393 million yuan in 2026, with a 7% growth [2] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 944 million yuan, a decrease of 17% compared to the previous year, followed by a recovery to 1,070 million yuan in 2026 and 1,200 million yuan in 2027 [2][6] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 15x for 2025 and 13x for 2026 [1][6] Key Financial Metrics - The company reported a gross margin of 44.0% in 2023, with a slight increase expected to 44.5% by 2027 [12] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to decrease from 10.0% in 2023 to 8.0% in 2025, before recovering to 9.7% in 2027 [12] - The asset-liability ratio is expected to rise from 35.9% in 2023 to 39.7% in 2027, indicating a gradual increase in leverage [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2][8] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.385 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 335 million yuan, up 0.70% year-on-year [6][7] - The company is facing short-term performance pressure due to intensified competition in the domestic power semiconductor industry, with a supply-demand imbalance persisting [7] - The company is optimizing its product structure and expanding its influence in the mid-to-high-end market, successfully launching its third-generation SGT products and entering mass supply of its seventh-generation IGBT products [7] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 1.901 billion yuan, 2.473 billion yuan, and 3.101 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 437.63 million yuan, 612.34 million yuan, and 751.92 million yuan [8][10] - The projected revenue growth rates are 3.95% for 2025, 30.13% for 2026, and 25.39% for 2027 [10][12] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.05 yuan for 2025, increasing to 1.47 yuan in 2026 and 1.81 yuan in 2027 [10][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated robust revenue growth, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching 8.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.88%, and a net profit of 770 million yuan, up 27.76% year-on-year [1]. - The company is recognized as a benchmark for Chinese brands going global, showcasing strong core competitiveness across products, brands, and channels, while continuously innovating and optimizing profits [4]. - The company plans to acquire an additional 4.27% stake in its subsidiary, Haiyi Zhixin, for 229 million yuan [1]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 21.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.79%, with a net profit of 1.93 billion yuan, up 31.3% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin improved to 44.6% in Q3 2025, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company’s operating expenses increased due to higher R&D and promotional expenditures, leading to a total expense ratio of 36.1%, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from overseas markets reached 20.32 billion yuan, growing 28.0% year-on-year, while domestic revenue was 700 million yuan, up 21.6% year-on-year [2]. - Online sales contributed 14.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.2%, while offline sales reached 6.62 billion yuan, growing 33.8% year-on-year [2]. - The company launched several new products, including the Anker Prime series and the Anker SOLIX home energy system, enhancing its product portfolio [2]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 31.38 billion yuan, 38.51 billion yuan, and 45.03 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits projected at 2.66 billion yuan, 3.18 billion yuan, and 3.85 billion yuan [4][5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 4.96 yuan, 5.94 yuan, and 7.18 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company with a target price of 11 yuan [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 630 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 22.1% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -100 million yuan, remaining stable compared to the same period last year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 140 million yuan, an increase of 3.7% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was -30 million yuan, an improvement from -110 million yuan in the same period last year [1][5]. - The report highlights that the company is undergoing a phase of adjustment and reform, with signs of operational bottoming out. The revenue growth in Q3 indicates a potential recovery, particularly in the domestic market, despite ongoing competitive pressures [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: The total revenue for 2024 is projected at 925 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 37.0%. The net profit is expected to be -258 million yuan, reflecting a significant drop of 1,067.2% year-on-year. By 2027, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 235 million yuan, with a growth rate of 909.9% [1][12]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is forecasted to be -0.39 yuan in 2024, improving to 0.36 yuan by 2027 [1][12]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be -26 in 2024, -50 in 2025, and 29 in 2027, indicating a significant turnaround anticipated in the company's profitability [1][12]. Market and Product Performance - **Product Segmentation**: In Q3, the high-end, mid-range, and low-end products generated revenues of 10 million, 20 million, and 80 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 30.4%, -43.7%, and 32.4% [5][6]. - **Sales Channels**: Direct sales revenue increased by 28.6%, while wholesale revenue grew by 7.3%, indicating a stabilization in channel performance [5][6]. - **Regional Performance**: Domestic revenue grew by 22.0% in Q3, while revenue from outside the province decreased by 32.0%, highlighting the challenges faced in external markets [5][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy-A" with a target price of 10.73 CNY, while the current stock price is 8.72 CNY [6]. Core Views - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the third quarter of 2025, with revenue at 1.138 billion CNY, down 14.30% year-on-year, and net profit at 77.39 million CNY, down 16.91% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on cost control and enhancing its natural gas pipeline transportation efficiency, with a gross margin increase of 0.6 percentage points to 12.81% [2]. - The company has a strong regional advantage in the Anhui natural gas market, with its pipeline network covering 16 cities and 41 counties [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.812 billion CNY, a decrease of 10.30% year-on-year, and a net profit of 262 million CNY, down 7.31% year-on-year [1]. - The company expects revenues for 2025-2027 to be 5.918 billion CNY, 6.629 billion CNY, and 7.464 billion CNY, with growth rates of 2.1%, 12%, and 12.6% respectively [4]. Operational Strategy - The company is actively extending its industrial chain and enhancing its pipeline transportation capabilities, which is expected to support downstream market development [3]. - The company is implementing smart management applications in urban gas distribution, utilizing IoT devices for real-time data collection [2]. Market Position - The company has established a competitive position in the natural gas market in Anhui, leveraging its pipeline infrastructure to provide stable transportation services [3]. - The company is also exploring opportunities in LNG resources to enhance its market competitiveness [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Agricultural Bank of China (601288.SH) is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Views - The bank's revenue and profit continue to maintain positive growth, with operating income reaching 550.9 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 220.9 billion yuan, up 3.0% year-on-year [1][2] - The asset scale is growing rapidly, with total assets increasing by 10.5% year-on-year to 48.1 trillion yuan, and deposits growing by 5.8% to 32.1 trillion yuan [1] - The net interest margin continues to decline, with an average net interest margin of 1.30% in the first three quarters, down 15 basis points year-on-year [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the bank's net interest income decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, while net fee income increased by 13.3% and other non-interest income surged by 31.7% [2] - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 1.27%, a slight decrease from the beginning of the year, and the provision coverage ratio remained high at 295% [2] - The bank's financial forecasts for 2025-2027 project net profits of 292.4 billion yuan, 301.9 billion yuan, and 313.3 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding diluted EPS of 0.78, 0.81, and 0.84 yuan [2][3]