证券研究报告 环保 | 环境治理 港股|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 17 日 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 蔡思 SAC：S1350524070005 caisi@huayuanstock.com | 基本数据 | 2025 | 04 | 日 | 月 | 16 | 年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | | | 3.41 | | | | | 一年内最高/最低（港 | | | 4.14/3.01 | | | | | 元） | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | 20,947.55 | | | | | 流通市值（百万港元） | | | 20,947.55 | | | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | 64.30 | | | | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | | | | | 光大环境(00257.HK) ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports (2020.HK) is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - Anta reported Q1 2025 retail data showing significant year-on-year growth for its brands, with Anta and FILA both experiencing high single-digit growth, while other brands saw nearly 70% growth, exceeding expectations [2][4]. - The company announced the acquisition of the outdoor brand Wolf Claw for a base price of $290 million, which is considered a favorable deal at approximately 1X PS, given Wolf Claw's projected FY2025 revenue of €325 million [4][6]. - The report indicates that despite short-term pressures on operating profit margins due to increased expenses from channel renovations and brand acquisitions, Anta is on a healthy growth trajectory with stable growth for its core brand, positive trends for FILA, and accelerated growth for other brands [6]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - Anta's retail performance in Q1 2025 was better than expected, with high single-digit growth for Anta and FILA, and nearly 70% growth for other brands [2][4]. - The brand restructuring for FILA since 2023 is showing positive results, and the children's segment is also improving following reforms [6]. Acquisition of Wolf Claw - The acquisition of Wolf Claw for $290 million is expected to enhance Anta's brand portfolio, particularly in the mid-range outdoor segment, and is anticipated to contribute positively to growth in the medium term [6]. - The integration of Wolf Claw may initially have a slight negative impact on profits, but similar past acquisitions have led to successful growth [6]. Financial Projections - The report maintains previous profit forecasts, projecting Anta's net profit for 2025-2027 to be CNY 13.42 billion, CNY 14.96 billion, and CNY 16.59 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 11% for 2026 and 2027 [6][9]. - The estimated P/E ratios for the same period are 16.53, 14.83, and 13.37, indicating that the stock is currently valued at a relatively low level [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year growth in retail sales for its main brand in Q1 2025, with a discount range of 70% to 75% and channel inventory at approximately four months [2][3] - Saucony, a brand under the company, achieved about 40% year-on-year growth in retail sales in Q1 2025, benefiting from its strong performance in professional running and outdoor segments [2][3] Summary by Sections Event Overview - The company announced its Q1 2025 operational data, highlighting a year-on-year increase in retail sales for its main brand, with discounts maintained at 70% to 75% and channel inventory around four months [2] Analysis and Judgment - In Q1 2025, the retail sales growth rate for the main brand showed a decline compared to Q4 2024, but the discount levels remained stable [3] - The company’s retail discount rates were consistent across quarters, with channel inventory turnover slightly improving compared to the previous year [3] - Saucony's growth is attributed to its strategic positioning in high-end markets and its brand promotion efforts, including celebrity endorsements and product innovation [3] Investment Recommendations - Short-term investments in the main brand's DTC strategy may negatively impact sales but are expected to enhance consumer interaction and brand loyalty in the long run [4] - The company plans to expand its product range and open approximately 30 new Saucony stores in high-end markets [4] - The financial forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 predict revenues of 142.86 billion, 155.58 billion, and 172.51 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 13.74 billion, 15.11 billion, and 16.64 billion [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 156.16 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.87%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.37 billion RMB, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 95.21% [1][2] - The dividend payout ratio has been increased to over 60%, specifically to 62.94%, which is a 15.28 percentage point increase year-on-year, enhancing the investment appeal [3][8] - The company benefits from rising prices of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, leading to a notable increase in gross profit margin to 27.0%, up 11.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 27.0%, driven by higher sales prices of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, with average selling prices of 17,549 RMB/ton and 3,420 RMB/ton respectively, reflecting increases of 6.6% and 33.6% year-on-year [2] - The sales volume for electrolytic aluminum and alumina reached 5.837 million tons and 10.921 million tons, marking year-on-year growth of 1.5% and 5.3% respectively [2] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 1.02 HKD per share, with a dividend payout ratio raised to 62.94%, which is expected to boost investor confidence [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a decline in net profit for 2025-2027, estimating 16.13 billion RMB, 17.75 billion RMB, and 21.29 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a decrease of 19.44% and 19.06% in the first two years [5] - The target price has been adjusted to 15.37 HKD, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 8.5 for 2025, up from a previous target of 13.91 HKD [5][8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for H&H International Holdings for the first time [1]. Core Views - H&H International Holdings has established a diversified and international business strategy, focusing on three main segments: Baby Nutrition Care (BNC), Adult Nutrition Care (ANC), and Pet Nutrition Care (PNC) [8][19]. - The company is expected to recover from previous challenges, with a forecasted return to profitability and revenue growth driven by its core brands and market positioning [29][39]. - The health supplement industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with significant potential for further expansion, particularly in online sales channels [41][45]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Overview - H&H International Holdings was founded in 1999 and has developed a strong presence in the probiotics market, maintaining a leading position in China [8][14]. - The company has expanded its product offerings through acquisitions, including the Australian health brand Swisse and pet nutrition brands Solid Gold and Zesty Paws [8][19]. - As of 2024, the revenue distribution among its three main business segments is 34% for BNC, 51% for ANC, and 15% for PNC [19]. 2. Health Supplement Industry - The Chinese health supplement market has grown from 70.14 billion yuan in 2010 to 224.04 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 9.35%, outpacing the global average [41][44]. - The shift towards online sales has been significant, with e-commerce accounting for 58% of retail sales in the health supplement sector by 2024 [61][62]. - The aging population and increasing health awareness among consumers are expected to drive continued growth in the health supplement market [45][49]. 3. Company Resilience and Growth Potential - H&H's revenue is projected to grow from 14.08 billion yuan in 2025 to 16.16 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.2% [1]. - The company anticipates a significant recovery in net profit, with estimates of 520.67 million yuan in 2025, up from a loss in 2024 [1]. - The brand Swisse is expected to maintain a strong market position, benefiting from its online sales strategy and expanding product lines targeting younger consumers [64][70].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 is robust, with revenue and adjusted profit both increasing by over 30% [1] - The company is actively expanding its operations both domestically and internationally, with a focus on enhancing its medical resources and integrating AI into its services [2][7] - The company has a strong growth outlook, with projected revenue growth of 29% in 2025 and 26% in 2026 [7] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.022 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 30.2%, and adjusted profit of 400 million RMB, up 31% [1][8] - The company maintained a gross margin of 30.1% and an adjusted net profit margin of 13.2% in 2024 [6][8] - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 1.19 million RMB for the year, representing 38.7% of its net profit [1] User Engagement and Expansion - In 2024, the number of treatment visits increased by 26%, with an average spending per visit rising by 3% [2] - The company expanded its domestic presence to 78 institutions, with plans to add 15-20 more locations in 2025 [2][3] - The company has established partnerships with over 20 universities and hospitals, enhancing its medical expertise [2] AI Integration and Future Outlook - The company is leveraging AI to enhance its medical services, aiming to digitize the experience of traditional Chinese medicine [7] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are optimistic, with expected revenues of 38.89 billion RMB in 2025, 49.50 billion RMB in 2026, and 62.17 billion RMB in 2027 [7][8] - The company is focusing on optimizing its revenue structure by increasing self-paid services and expanding its product offerings [2][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [5]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 7.4 billion yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 240 million yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 35.3% year-on-year [1]. - The performance of goat milk powder in overseas markets has been particularly strong, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 68.2% [2]. - The company has maintained its leading position in the global goat milk powder market, achieving over 60% market share in China for six consecutive years [2]. - The gross profit margin improved to 42.0% in 2024, up by 3.3 percentage points, driven by reduced sales discounts and product mix upgrades [3]. - The company expects domestic market stabilization in 2025, with continued high double-digit growth in overseas goat milk powder revenue [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 74 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.4 billion yuan, with the second half of 2024 showing a revenue of 37.2 billion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year, but a net profit of 0.9 billion yuan, marking a return to profitability [1]. - Revenue breakdown for 2024 includes: cow milk powder at 2.107 billion yuan (down 17.8%), goat milk powder at 3.699 billion yuan (up 12.7%), other products at 1.292 billion yuan (up 3.2%), and nutrition products at 305 million yuan (up 7.1%) [2]. - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 was 3.2%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Future Projections - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 299 million yuan and 357 million yuan, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 15% and 19% from previous estimates [4]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.17 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11x [4]. - The company anticipates a recovery in the domestic market due to a slight rebound in birth rates, which may support the infant formula market in 2025 [3]. Market Position - The company is recognized as a leading brand in the goat milk powder sector, with successful expansion in overseas markets, particularly in the Middle East [4]. - The company’s strategic focus on enhancing its product matrix and deepening market penetration in regions like Saudi Arabia is expected to support long-term growth [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China Mengniu Dairy [2][6]. Core Views - Supply depletion is occurring in the raw milk market, with prices stabilizing at a low level, indicating a potential reversal in the cycle [3][11]. - The reversal of milk prices is expected to positively impact Mengniu's profitability, as the company is increasingly affected by the upstream raw milk cycle [4][12]. - The company is focusing on improving operating profit margins and shareholder returns, with a planned increase in dividend payout [5][13]. Financial Summary - The current share price is HK$19.76, with a target price set at HK$27.60, indicating a potential upside [2]. - Market capitalization stands at HK$77.38 billion (approximately US$9.98 billion) [2]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at Rmb 91.44 billion, Rmb 95.82 billion, and Rmb 101.30 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.1%, 4.8%, and 5.7% [6][13]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be Rmb 5.41 billion, Rmb 5.81 billion, and Rmb 6.42 billion for the same period, with significant growth expected in 2026 and 2027 [6][13]. - The diluted EPS is projected to increase from Rmb 1.38 in 2025 to Rmb 1.64 in 2027 [6][13]. Market Dynamics - The price of raw milk has been on a downward trend for nearly four years, reaching a 14-year low, which has led to a reduction in upstream production capacity [3][11]. - The national dairy herd has decreased by 5.8%, with expectations that a balance between supply and demand will be achieved at around 5.9 million heads [3][11]. - If the raw milk cycle reverses, it could lead to improved sales prices and reduced competition among dairy companies [4][12].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, setting a target price of HKD 65.17 based on a PE of 14 times for 2025, which is considered the lowest level in the past decade [5]. Core Viewpoints - The company is one of the largest vertically integrated knitwear manufacturers globally, with strong profitability driven by several advantages, including robust R&D capabilities, integrated production efficiency, and diversified overseas factory layout [2]. - The company has a manageable risk profile regarding tariffs, with only 16% of its exports going to the U.S., and potential tariff impacts on overall orders estimated to be less than 3% [3]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of major clients, with positive trends in orders from Uniqlo, Adidas, and Nike, indicating a favorable short-term outlook [4]. Summary by Sections Company Highlights - The company has established long-term partnerships with major global brands such as Nike, Uniqlo, and Adidas, enhancing its market position [15]. - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of CNY 28.66 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.79%, and a net profit of CNY 6.24 billion, up 36.94% [15]. Investment Logic - The company’s diversified production capacity and collaboration with major clients provide a competitive edge, with the potential to increase market share amid industry disruptions [3]. - The company's management has shown confidence in its future by increasing their shareholdings during recent market fluctuations [3][4]. Short-term Orders - The company is expected to see improved order conditions due to the recovery of its core clients, with Uniqlo and Adidas showing positive sales trends [4]. - The long-term market share is anticipated to grow as major clients focus on core suppliers, reducing the number of suppliers they work with [4]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company’s EPS is projected to be CNY 4.39, CNY 4.91, and CNY 5.48 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a PE ratio of 11 times for 2025 [5]. - The report indicates that the company’s recent stock price decline presents a buying opportunity, with a target valuation based on a PE of 14 times for 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, setting a target price of HKD 65.17 based on a PE of 14 times for 2025, which is considered the lowest level in the past decade [5]. Core Views - The company is recognized as one of the largest vertically integrated knitwear manufacturers globally, with a strong client base including Nike, Uniqlo, and Adidas. Its high profitability is attributed to several advantages, including strong R&D capabilities, integrated production efficiency, and diversified overseas factory locations [2][15]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of major clients, leading to improved order conditions. The long-term market share is anticipated to grow as major clients focus on core suppliers, reducing the number of suppliers [4][11]. Summary by Sections Company Highlights - The company has established itself as a leading vertically integrated knitwear manufacturer, with a significant portion of its production in China, Vietnam, and Cambodia, accounting for 47%, 27%, and 26% of capacity respectively [2][55]. - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 28.66 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.79%, and a net profit of RMB 6.24 billion, up 36.94% [15][25]. Investment Logic - The company has a manageable risk profile compared to its peers, with only 16% of its exports going to the U.S. The potential impact of tariffs is estimated to be less than 3% on overall orders [3][63]. - The recent tariff situation is expected to accelerate the exit of smaller competitors, allowing the company to capture additional market share due to its stronger financial and operational resilience [3][64]. Short-term Orders - The company is optimistic about order improvements from its four major clients, with Uniqlo and Adidas showing positive trends. Adidas is expected to recover its brand strength, which will benefit the company [4][11]. - The long-term market share is projected to increase as major clients reduce their supplier base, enhancing operational efficiency [4][11]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company’s EPS is forecasted to be RMB 4.39, RMB 4.91, and RMB 5.48 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a PE of 11 times for 2025, indicating a significant valuation opportunity [5][9]. - The report suggests that the recent stock price decline presents a buying opportunity, with a target price set at HKD 65.17 [5].