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2 期试验获得积极疗效，且耐受性良好。2024 年 5 月，临床 3 期试验方案已 获得 FDA 批准。 证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 09 月 02 日 来凯医药-B（02105.HK） ATK 抑制剂乳腺癌 3 期启动，ActRIIA 顺利进入临床 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------|------------------------|------------------------------------------|--------------|--------------------------------------------|------------------| | 财务指标 | 20 ...

高端系列带动利润率提升，但未来利润增长空间或有限；维持中性 上半年收入利润均获提升。飞鹤于 2024 上半年实现了远好于行业的表 现。上半年收入 100.9 亿元（人民币，下同），同比增 3.7%，而其主营业 务行业—婴幼儿配方奶粉行业，则呈双位数下降；受产品结构优化以及高 端系列的持续增长，毛利率提升 2.6 个百分点至 67.9%。经营利润 30.6 亿 元，经营利润率同比提升近 5 个百分点至 30.3%。在 2022 年和 2023 年连 续下跌后，飞鹤 2024 上半年净利润重返增长，同比增 18.1%至 19.1 亿 元，对应净利润率 18.9%。飞鹤拟派发中期股息每股 0.1632 港元，同比增 长 21%，对应派息率 72%（去年同期为 66%），股东回报持续提升。 高端系列推动收入增长和利润率提升；收入端未来增长动力逐渐清晰。飞 鹤一直进行产品结构的改造和升级，去除大量低端产品线并大力发展高端 和超高端系列（如星飞帆、臻稚有机）。受益于高端产品的持续升级，以 及在消费者购买力较强的沿海省份及高线级城市的渠道渗透和营销力度的 加强，飞鹤上半年毛利率显著提升至 67.9%（去年同期为 65.3% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Life Insurance (2628 HK) with a target price of HKD 14.00, indicating a potential upside of 18.4% from the current closing price of HKD 11.82 [1][8]. Core Insights - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 10.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, with a significant recovery in Q2, where profits doubled compared to the same period last year [1]. - Premium income rose by 4.1% year-on-year, primarily driven by renewal premiums, while the structure of premiums improved, with a notable increase in 10-year and above regular premiums [1]. - The new business value grew by 18.6% year-on-year, although this growth rate is relatively lower compared to peers in the industry [1]. - Total investment income saw a substantial increase of 50% year-on-year, with an annualized net investment return of 3.03% [1]. Financial Overview - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2022, the company reported total revenue of RMB 388.895 billion, with a projected revenue of RMB 454.408 billion for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.0% [4]. - The net profit for 2022 was RMB 66.680 billion, with an expected increase to RMB 54.795 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.7% [4]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from RMB 1.63 in 2023 to RMB 1.94 in 2024 [4]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 5.5 in 2024, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical levels [4]. Business Metrics - The report highlights that the 14-month persistency rate improved to 91.5%, up by 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, indicating better customer retention [1]. - The number of individual insurance agents remained stable at 629,000, suggesting a solid distribution network [1]. - The proportion of new business value from the individual insurance channel increased to 30.6%, up by 5.4 percentage points year-on-year [1].

上半年售气毛差改善幅度较大，期内核心利润超预期。公司上半年核心盈 利上升 21%至 34.6 亿港元，高于我们预期 8%。当中盈利增长贡献较多的 是零售气分部，期内零售气量同比增长 5.3%，售气毛差上升 4 分至每立方 0.54 元（人民币，下同），对比我们预期的 0.50 元。同时综合服务收入/ 分部经营利润维持较快增长（同比+20%/+22%），部分抵销接驳工程分部 利润同比下跌29%的影响。期内公司居民接驳量同比减少30 万户至134 万 户。另外，销售及分销/行政开支均比我们预期低 5-6%，推动整体经营利 润高于我们预期22%。另外，相比今年3 月公司在2023 年度只维持派息比 率持平，中期股息同比提升 67%至每股 0.25 港元，是一个惊喜。 2024-26 年盈利预测有较大幅度的提升。我们预测 2024/25 全年零售气量 同比増长 5.3%/5.1%，售气毛差分别为每立方 0.53/0.54 元。至于接驳工 程，我们预期公司在 2024/25 年的居民新增接驳量为 280/240 万户（同比 下降 17%/14%），管理层表示目前约 280-290 万户的指引是参考 2023 年度 的新 ...

盈利显著回升，新业务价值增速在同业中领先 2 季度盈利在投资收益带动下显著回升。上半年新华实现归母净利润同比 增长 11.1%，分季度来看，1 季度盈利同比下降 29%，2 季度同比上升 101%。公司归母净资产较年初下降14%，主要由于金融资产分类上以摊余 成本计量资产占比超过 40%，显著高于同业。 保费结构优化，业务品质改善。上半年保费收入同比下降 8.4%，降幅主 要来自银保趸交保费。上半年 10 年期以上期交同比增长 16.3%，占新单期 交保费比重 13.2%，同比上升 2.5 个百分点。个人寿险业务 13 个月/25 个 月继续率为95.0%/85.6% ，同比提升5.8/6.6 个百分点。个险代理人13.9 万 人，较上年末下降 10.3%。 新业务价值增速在同业中领先。上半年新业务价值同比增长 57.7%，增速 仅低于太平，其中个险渠道和银保渠道分别贡献增速 32 和 27 个百分点。 银保渠道占新业务价值比重 35.3%，同比提高 7 个百分点。首年保费口径 新业务价值率 18.8%，同比上升 12 个百分点。 投资收益显著增长。上半年投资资产较年初增长 7%，总投资收益同比增 长 43. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral [3][7]. Core Insights - The company's high-end product series has driven profit margin improvements, but future profit growth may be limited. The company reported a revenue of 10.09 billion RMB in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, while the infant formula industry experienced a double-digit decline. Gross margin improved by 2.6 percentage points to 67.9% due to product structure optimization and the continued growth of high-end series [1][2]. - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 0.1632 HKD per share, a year-on-year increase of 21%, with a payout ratio of 72% [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 1.91 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, corresponding to a net profit margin of 18.9%. Operating profit was 3.06 billion RMB, with an operating profit margin of 30.3%, up nearly 5 percentage points year-on-year [1][2]. - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: 20.8 billion RMB for 2024E, 22.2 billion RMB for 2025E, and 23.3 billion RMB for 2026E, with expected growth rates of 6.5%, 6.5%, and 5.0% respectively [3][8]. Market Dynamics - The growth drivers for the company include increasing consumer confidence in domestic infant formula quality, the release of new national standards raising industry entry barriers, and the growth of the high-end market segment [2]. - The company has been removing low-end product lines and focusing on high-end and ultra-high-end series, which has contributed to the significant increase in gross margin [2]. Valuation - The target price has been adjusted to 4.00 HKD, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.7 times the 2025 earnings, reflecting a conservative outlook due to ongoing industry pressures and limited profit growth potential [2].

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股价（2024 年 08 月 30 日） 118.2 港元 绝对表现% 9.95 11.09 8.54 -11.92 项雯倩 021-63325888*6128 xiangwenqian@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860517020003 香港证监会牌照：BQP120 李雨琪 021-63325888-3023 liyuqi@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520050001 香港证监会牌照：BQP135 杨妍 yangyan3@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860523030001 ⚫ 整体：利润大超预期。收入端，24Q2 营收 823 亿元（yoy+21%）彭博一致预期为 804 亿元。利润端，24Q2 调整后营业利润 139 亿元（彭博一致预期为 102 亿 元），营业利润率为 16.9%（23Q2 为 8.7%，24Q1 为 9.5%），同环比均明显改 善，主要是核心本地商业利润释放和新业务亏损显著收窄。调整后净利润 136 亿元 （彭博一致预期为 103 亿元），净利润率为 16.5%（23Q2 为 11.3%，24Q1 为 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 19.6, while the current price is HKD 16.22 [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 1.14 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 120 million in the first half of 2024, with significant growth in the women's care center business [1][2]. - Revenue growth was driven by franchise stores and sub-health services, with women's care center revenue increasing over 200% year-on-year [2]. - The acquisition of 150 stores from Nairu, covering the Greater Bay Area, further expands the company's business footprint and complements its existing services [4]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company reported a revenue increase of 9.7% year-on-year, while net profit grew by 3.2% [2]. - The gross margin slightly increased by 0.9 percentage points to 47.0%, attributed to increased customer traffic and economies of scale [2]. - The company forecasts net profits for 2024-2026 to be RMB 250 million, RMB 320 million, and RMB 370 million, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.1x, 10.9x, and 9.5x [4]. Store Expansion and Customer Engagement - The company has expanded its store count to over 559, including 150 Nairu stores, with a significant increase in customer traffic and active membership [3]. - Direct store traffic reached 680,000 visits, a 12% increase year-on-year, while active members grew by 10% to 82,000, maintaining a high retention rate of 79% [3].