腾讯控股（00700.HK）首次覆盖报告：深度系列（一） [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] 游戏业务进入复苏通道，视频号力争增量空间 2024 年 09 月 24 日 ➢ 互联网行业绝对龙头，股东回报方式多样化：腾讯向全球用户提供全方位的 互动娱乐产品和服务，在即时通信、社交、游戏、数字内容等领域具备行业龙头 优势，并拥有多元的增值服务变现模式。为应对大股东长期减持计划，2024 年 公司计划回购规模有望翻倍至 1000 亿港元以上，截至 2024 年 9 月 23 日，公 司累计回购金额达 864 亿港元。近年来，公司提供股票分红、现金分红等多样化 的股东回报以提振市场信心。 ➢ 内生高质量增长动能恢复，高毛利业务占比提升：收入端，24Q2，公司实 现总收入 1611 亿元，同比+8%。其中，本土游戏/海外游戏/社交网络/网络广告 / 金 科 及 企 服 业 务 收 入 分别为 346/139/303/299/504 亿元，分别 同 比 +9%/+9%/+2%/+19%/+4%。利润端，24Q2 毛利润 859 亿元，同比+21.3%， 毛利率 53.3%，同比+5.8pct。毛利率的改善 ...

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 分子分母端或共振，中期利润率回升能见度有望提升 1、分母侧利好或只是开始，分子侧市场关注的宏观预期正企稳 从分母端看，SaaS 类资产对分母端较为敏感。随着降息周期的开启，公司 估值有望持续受益。从分子端看，随着宏观预期企稳，市场此前的担心如 业务或受中小企业经营情况拖累有望得到缓解。金蝶股价在 2024 年跑输恒 生科技约 45%，分子分母端共振下公司有望迎来均值回归。 2、重申重视公司韧性，强刚需下公司全年需求我们预计稳定 我们持续强调，公司主力产品财务云产品是企业刚需且费用不高（根据公 司公告，星空2023 年Arpu 值在5 万，为A 股上市公司单人平均薪酬的25%）。 根据公司公告，2024 年 H1 公司续费率稳定在 95%。考虑公司业务韧性， 我们预计公司 2024 年收入接近 15%。 3、降本增效更坚决，预计中期研发费用率降至 20%以下 互联网行业的降本增效始于 2021 年年末，财务端在 2022 年下半年开始体 现，如腾讯、阿里。软件行业 24 年年初普遍进行了更坚决更有力的降本增 效，若行业需求稳定预计在 2025 年财务端有望得到体现。考虑金蝶历史研 发 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Kuaishou Technology Core Insights - Kuaishou Technology's 2024 Investor Day highlighted the company's focus on technology innovation and user demand as the foundation for its growth strategy [2][3] - The company aims to enhance its e-commerce capabilities by improving the visibility of products through video and live streaming, addressing the challenges posed by cautious consumer spending and merchant profitability [5][6] - Kuaishou's international business is seeing steady growth, particularly in Brazil, with a focus on leveraging advanced advertising efficiency and local market opportunities [12] - The local life segment emphasizes user, merchant, and platform value, targeting lower-tier cities for growth [13][14] - Financial highlights include achieving a GMV of 1 trillion, revenue of 100 billion, and an adjusted net profit of 10 billion, with a strong focus on shareholder returns through share buybacks [16] Summary by Sections Company Strategy and Core Business Development - Kuaishou emphasizes a user-oriented content and product ecosystem, with AI enhancements improving user value recognition [3][4] - The platform's user engagement remains strong, with 77% of users interacting with creators and a 7% year-on-year growth in private domain markets [3] E-commerce - The e-commerce strategy focuses on good products and good content, with a current user penetration rate of 19% indicating room for growth [5][6] - Live streaming and short video capabilities are being enhanced to drive consumer purchases, with significant growth in GMV from short videos [8] International Business - The international strategy is centered on Brazil, with a dedicated team and a focus on e-commerce and financial services [12] Local Life - The local life business has evolved through two phases, focusing on user and merchant value, particularly in lower-tier cities [13][14] Financial Highlights - Kuaishou reported a GMV of 1 trillion, revenue of 100 billion, and an adjusted net profit of 10 billion, with a strong cash flow and significant share buyback plans [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [2]. Core Insights - The company reported a 3.7% year-on-year increase in revenue for H1 2024, reaching 10.095 billion, and a 10.5% increase in net profit, amounting to 1.875 billion [2]. - A mid-term dividend of 0.16 HKD per share was announced, with a payout ratio of 72% [2]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024 downwards due to declining birth rates and intense industry competition, projecting net profits of 3.69 billion, 3.86 billion, and 4.02 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][4]. - The company maintains a leading market share in the infant formula sector, with a total market share of 19.2% and offline market share of 22.7% [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 67.9%, up 2.56 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to a net profit margin of 18.6%, an increase of 1.15 percentage points [3]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 20.476 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5% [4]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 3.691 billion, reflecting a 9% increase compared to the previous year [4]. Market Position - The ultra-premium infant formula segment saw a revenue increase of 19.6% to 7.14 billion, driven by the growth of the Star Flying series [3]. - The company has effectively managed its channel inventory, positioning itself to capture market share as smaller brands exit the market [3]. Profitability Metrics - The report indicates a decrease in sales expense ratio to 35%, down 0.52 percentage points, due to optimized marketing strategies [3]. - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 10x, 10x, and 9x respectively, compared to an average PE of 12x for comparable companies [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Sinopec Engineering (2386.HK) [4] Core Views - Sinopec Engineering has signed a $2.5 billion EPC contract for the Silleno petrochemical complex project in Kazakhstan, marking a significant breakthrough in overseas markets and aligning with the Belt and Road Initiative [2][3] - The project is a joint venture with Kazakhstan's national oil and gas company and reflects Sinopec's commitment to enhancing its overseas market development and high-quality growth [3] - The company has seen a substantial increase in overseas contract signings, with a 117.8% year-on-year growth in new contracts amounting to approximately $2.354 billion in the first half of 2024 [3] - The domestic market is also presenting new opportunities, driven by the rapid development of large refining bases and supportive policies for energy efficiency and carbon reduction [3] Summary by Sections Contract Announcement - Sinopec Engineering has entered into a $2.5 billion EPC contract for the ethylene cracking project at the Silleno petrochemical complex in Kazakhstan [2] Market Opportunities - The company is benefiting from the modernization of China's industrial system and the expansion of the petrochemical industry, with significant capital expenditures in high-end new materials [3] - In the overseas market, active capital expenditures in the Middle East have exceeded $100 billion, providing a favorable environment for Sinopec to secure more contracts [3] Financial Forecasts - The report projects Sinopec Engineering's net profit for 2024-2026 to be approximately 2.638 billion, 2.915 billion, and 3.182 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.60, 0.66, and 0.72 yuan per share [4] - The company is expected to experience rapid growth in performance, supported by its resource advantages and ongoing market expansion [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 51.21 [8][9]. Core Views - The report highlights the company's undervaluation and high return potential, particularly in the context of the anticipated interest rate cuts, which are expected to benefit both the numerator (North American store expansion and same-store growth) and the denominator (discount rate) [2][4]. - The company is expected to see a recovery in same-store sales growth in Q4, driven by new IP launches and a lower base effect from the previous quarter [3][4]. - North America is projected to continue its rapid growth, with the potential for improved profitability as the company optimizes its store operations and expands its franchise model [4][5]. Summary by Sections Domestic Market - In Q3 2023, the domestic same-store sales growth was impacted by a high base effect due to the popularity of the "Barbie" IP products. However, new IP products and the expansion of flagship stores are expected to support revenue growth in Q4 [3]. - The company anticipates a year-on-year revenue growth of high single digits to low double digits in Q3, with operating profit benefiting from an increased sales mix of IP products and direct sales [3]. Overseas Market - The North American market is expected to accelerate its growth due to the favorable interest rate environment, which may reduce price competition. The company plans to introduce a franchise model to enhance store expansion and optimize rental and personnel costs [4]. - The report forecasts that overseas revenue will continue to show high growth in Q3, supported by the rapid expansion in North America and Southeast Asia [4]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to grow significantly, with expected revenues of RMB 17.32 billion in 2024, representing a 50.97% increase from 2023. Net profit is expected to reach RMB 2.88 billion, a 62.64% increase [6][14]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including an expected EPS of RMB 2.28 for 2024 and a PE ratio of 13.10 [6][14]. TOPTOY Growth - TOPTOY is expected to maintain a steady growth trajectory through continuous iteration of its UE model and optimization of store formats, with ongoing trials in overseas markets [5].

远大医药（00512.HK） 优于大市 上半年营收同比微增，核药抗肿瘤板块进入快速放量期 收入同比微增，扣除 Telix 投资的公允价值变动的正常化溢利快速增长。 2024 年上半年公司实现收入 60.47 亿港币，同比增长 1.0%，扣除汇率变动 影响同比增长约 5.4%；实现归母溢利 15.58 亿港币，同比增长 51.4%；若扣 除对 Telix 投资的公允价值变动收益（4.77 亿港币），正常化归母溢利约 10.81 亿港币，同比增长约 35.1%，进一步扣除汇率变动的影响后同比增长 约 41.0%。 呼吸类产品表现亮眼，核药抗肿瘤板块进入高速放量阶段。扣除汇率变动影 响，2024 年上半年制药科技板块实现收入 37.73 亿港币，同比基本持平，其 中呼吸及危重症业务收入 9.63 亿港币，同比增长约 21.0%，主要因为核心产 品切诺的临床需求持续增长以及新产品恩卓润、恩明润的放量增长；五官科 业务收入 12.31 亿港币，同比基本持平；心脑血管急救业务收入 11.67 亿港 币，同比下降 16.6%，主要因为肾上腺素产品受到集采降价影响。核药抗肿 瘤诊疗及心脑血管精准介入诊疗科技板块实现收入 3. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][13][18] Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first half of 2024 was 6.636 billion (down 3.8%), with a net profit of 1.108 billion (down 7.5%), but a quarter-on-quarter growth of 37.7% in net profit [1][5] - The company is experiencing improved profitability despite challenges from centralized procurement and the impact of pandemic-related product sales [1][5] - The board has proposed an interim dividend of approximately 420 million, maintaining a 40% payout ratio [1][5] Revenue Breakdown - Medical Devices: Revenue of approximately 3.189 billion (down 7.7%), with stable growth in major product sales between 5%-15% [6][10] - Pharmaceutical Packaging: Revenue of approximately 1.168 billion (up 10.0%), with strong demand for pre-filled syringes and a market share increase [6][10] - Orthopedics: Revenue of 745 million (down 6.5%), with significant sales growth in spinal, trauma, and joint products between 20%-40% [6][10] - Interventional Business: Revenue of 1.114 billion (up 5.0%), with stable performance in the US and robust growth in Europe [6][10] Financial Metrics - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2024 was 50.9% (down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year), while the net profit margin decreased to 17.4% (down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year) [7][9] - Operating cash flow for the first half of 2024 was 1.023 billion, with cash content of net profit exceeding 90% [9][10] - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 to 13.66 billion, 14.46 billion, and 15.43 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.186 billion, 2.351 billion, and 2.539 billion [12][16]

证券研究报告 | 半年报点评 gszqdatemark 2024 09 21 年 月 日 奈雪的茶（02150.HK） 直营门店经营承压，加盟、海外业务稳步推进 事件：8 月 27 日，公司发布 2024 年中期业绩公告，2024H1 实现收入 25.44 亿元/同 比-1.9%，归母净亏损 4.35 亿元/上年同期盈利 0.66 亿元，经调整净亏损 4.38 亿元/上 年同期盈利 0.70 亿元。分产品来看，现制茶饮/烘焙产品/瓶装饮料/其他产品收入分别 为 17.22/2.70/1.72/3.80 亿元，分别同比-9.6%/-26.2%/+9.6%/+128.7%，占比分别 为 67.7%/10.6%/6.8%/14.9%，瓶装饮料、其他产品中的加盟业务发展较快。分收入 来源来看，奈雪的茶直营门店点单/自提订单/外卖订单占比分别13.4%/46.0%/40.6% 自提订单收入占比同比+4.9pct。 直营店展店放缓，单店日销承压。1）展店：2024H1，公司净新增直营门店数 23 家， 相对上年同期的 126 家有所放缓。截至报告期末，直营门店数 1597 家。其中，一线 新一线/二线/其他城市直营门店数 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a revised rating to "Add" [4]. Core Views - The company is undergoing a platform transformation, with a focus on optimizing existing stores and rapidly expanding partner stores. The new "community space" model is being validated, and strong supply chain capabilities are expected to support performance recovery as the consumption environment improves [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of 441 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 70 million yuan, down 55.8% year-on-year. Adjusted net profit was 90 million yuan, reflecting a 49.1% decline [1]. - The number of stores at the end of the reporting period was 537, with a net increase of 58 stores compared to the beginning of the year, but a decrease of 116 stores compared to the same period last year [1]. - The average daily sales for direct-operated and franchised stores were 7,500 yuan, showing an overall decline of 8.5% year-on-year [1]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are 892 million yuan, 1.019 billion yuan, and 1.209 billion yuan, respectively. Net profit projections for the same period are 135 million yuan, 169 million yuan, and 240 million yuan, respectively [3][4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 12x for 2024, 10x for 2025, and 7x for 2026 [2][4]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its supply chain management capabilities and has launched several high-margin new products. The gross margin for direct stores remained at 70% despite significant promotional activities [2]. - The company is iterating its store environment using new technologies to improve consumer experience, with the "community space" model expected to generate diverse revenue streams [2].