Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (388 HK) is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 404.00 [1][4]. Core Views - The report indicates that the performance in Q3 2024 was supported by a recovery in trading volume, with revenue and net profit reaching HKD 5.37 billion and HKD 3.15 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 5.7% and 6.5% [1]. - The average daily trading volume (ADT) for Q3 2024 was HKD 118.8 billion, showing a significant increase from the lowest point of HKD 95 billion in late August [1]. - The report anticipates continued high trading activity in October, with ADT potentially reaching historical highs, supported by expected interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Summary by Sections Trading Business - Q3 2024 saw a stable trading volume with an ADT of HKD 118.8 billion, slightly down from HKD 121.6 billion in Q2 2024. The derivatives and commodities markets experienced a decline, with LME ADV at 642,000 contracts and derivatives contract ADV at 1.482 million contracts [1]. - Interconnectivity revenue for Q3 2024 was HKD 581 million, with northbound and southbound ADT at RMB 1.103 billion and HKD 396 million respectively [1]. IPO Activity - The number of IPOs in Q3 2024 decreased to 15 from 18 in Q2 2024, but the total financing amount increased significantly to HKD 42.2 billion, primarily due to Midea Group's IPO [1]. Investment Performance - Total investment funds stood at HKD 226.8 billion in Q3 2024, with an overall investment return of 2.1%. The return on margin and clearing house funds decreased to 1.45%, while the company's fund return increased to 5.91% [2]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024, 2025, and 2026 has been adjusted to HKD 12.5 billion, HKD 13.2 billion, and HKD 13.8 billion respectively. The target price remains at HKD 404, with the current stock price trading at 30.2x 2025E PE [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning with a target price of HKD 22.8, based on a 2024 PE of 18 times [1][4]. Core Insights - Li Ning's Q3 retail revenue saw a year-on-year decline in the mid-single digits across all platforms, with offline channels experiencing a high single-digit drop, while e-commerce recorded a mid-single-digit growth. The company anticipates a recovery in Q4 due to a low base effect [2]. - The introduction of a joint venture with Sequoia Capital aims to expand Li Ning's overseas market presence, with Li Ning investing HKD 58 million for a 29% stake, maintaining control over the joint venture [2]. - The company reported a healthy inventory turnover, with a 5-month turnover rate and 80% of inventory being new products, although discounts are expected to increase in Q4 due to traditional e-commerce shopping festivals [2]. Financial Projections - The projected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is expected to be HKD 1.17, HKD 1.29, and HKD 1.43 respectively, with revenue growth rates of 2.5%, 7.9%, and 6.9% for the same years [3][8]. - The report indicates a decline in net profit for 2024, with a projected decrease of 4.7% compared to the previous year, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [3][11]. - The gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 48.4% in 2023 to 49.1% by 2026, while the net profit margin is projected to stabilize around 10.7% to 11.3% over the same period [3][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a slowdown in the main brand's retail sales growth in Q3 2024, with a retail discount of approximately 75% and inventory turnover of about 4 months [2] - The main brand's sales growth has slowed compared to the previous quarter, but there has been an improvement in sales since October, benefiting from government stimulus policies [2] - The company has effectively controlled discounts and inventory levels, with a retail discount of about 75% in Q3 2024, which is an improvement compared to the same period last year [2] - The subsidiary brand, Saucony, has shown strong growth with a year-on-year increase of around 50% in Q3 2024, and is expected to expand its presence in high-tier cities [2] - The company is focused on enhancing profitability through cost reduction and efficiency measures, alongside the divestiture of K&P, which is anticipated to improve profit margins [2] Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Total revenue (in million) is projected to be 14,957 in 2024E, with a year-on-year growth of 4.26% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company (in million) is forecasted to be 1,235.47 in 2024E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.95% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to be 0.47 in 2024E, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 11.24 [1]

来源：公司年报、国金证券研究所 买入（维持评级） 事件 李宁 10.22 发布 3Q24 经营数据，全平台零售流水下滑中单位数， 其中线下渠道流水下滑高单位数（直营同比下滑中单位数，批发同 比下滑高单位数），电商流水同比增长中单位数，符合预期。 同日李宁发布成立合资公司公告，其全资子公司 LN Co 与 Founder Co、红杉中国成立合资公司，合计注资 2 亿港元，持股比例分别为 29%、26%、45%，创始人李宁先生与李宁公司合计对 JV 持股达 55%， 拟借助国际机构等多方资源探索国际业务发展。 经营分析 三季度流水仍承压，存货维持健康。由于客流整体偏弱，公司积极 动态调整折扣，并加大高性价比款、快反产品的投放，以减轻渠道 存货压力。3Q24 折扣同比加深低单位数、ASP 下降中单位数，销售 量同比微降低单位数。期末库销比 5 左右，略微高于去年同期，其 中直营略高于批发，且库龄 80%以上是 6 个月内新品，保持健康， 环比有提升主要系冬装、双十一备货加大所致。 展望 Q4 及全年：指引维持。公司国庆期间表现显著好转，线上流 水增长 30%~40%，线下流水回正至个位数增长。预计在旺季催化、 客流 ...

股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 单季利润环比持平，期待 Q4 业绩释放 香港交易所(0388) [Table_Industry] 综合金融 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——香港交易所 2024 年三季报点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------------------------------------|---------------------------|---------------------------| | | | | | | | [table_Authors] 刘欣琦 ( 分析师 ) | 吴浩东 ( 分析师 ) | 王思 玥 ( 研究助理 ) | | | 021-38676647 | 010-83939780 | 021-38031024 | | | liuxinqi@gtjas.com | wuhaodong029780@gtjas.com | wangsiyue028676@gtjas.com | | 登记编号 | S0880515050001 | S0880524070001 | S0880123070151 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning with a target price of HKD 22.8, based on a 2024 PE of 18 times [1][4]. Core Insights - Li Ning's Q3 retail revenue saw a year-on-year decline in the mid-single digits across all platforms, with offline channels experiencing a high single-digit drop, while e-commerce recorded a mid-single-digit growth. The company anticipates a recovery in Q4 due to a low base effect [2][3]. - The introduction of a joint venture with Sequoia Capital aims to expand Li Ning's overseas market presence, with Li Ning investing HKD 58 million for a 29% stake, maintaining control over the joint venture [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the expected EPS is projected at HKD 1.17, with forecasts of HKD 1.29 and HKD 1.43 for 2025 and 2026 respectively. Revenue is expected to grow from HKD 28.276 billion in 2024 to HKD 32.6 billion by 2026 [2][3][8]. - The gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 48.4% in 2023 to 49.1% by 2026, while the net profit margin is projected to stabilize around 11.3% by 2026 [3][11]. Product Performance - The lifestyle and running categories have shown strong performance, with the Soft series achieving cumulative sales of approximately 2 million pairs by Q3. The running category saw high double-digit revenue growth in Q3 [2][3]. - The company has launched new outdoor products to cater to diverse consumer needs, including the "万龙甲 BREATH" series jackets and "行" family outdoor shoes [2]. Inventory and Discounts - Inventory turnover for offline channels was around 5 months in Q3, with 80% of new products having a shelf life of less than 6 months. Discounts in offline channels have deepened slightly, while e-commerce discounts have improved [2][3][11]. - The company expects discount pressures in Q4 due to traditional e-commerce shopping festivals, but overall discounts for the year are anticipated to improve compared to the previous year [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (00388) is "Buy" (maintained) [3]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company achieved a record high quarterly profit in Q3 2024, with expectations for further performance improvement as the market recovers [3][5]. - The total revenue and other income for the first three quarters of 2024 reached HKD 15.993 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 9.27 billion, remaining flat compared to the previous year [2][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue and other income of HKD 5.372 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1%. The net profit for the quarter was HKD 3.145 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7% and flat compared to the previous quarter [2][5]. - The company’s trading and settlement fees increased due to a rise in average daily trading volume (ADT) in the cash, derivatives, and commodities markets [5]. Segment Performance - Trading and trading system usage fees for the first three quarters of 2024 amounted to HKD 4.979 billion, up 6% year-on-year, driven by improved trading activity due to economic stimulus policies [5]. - Investment income for the first three quarters was HKD 3.728 billion, a decrease of 4% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced investment income from margin and settlement funds [5]. Market Outlook - The report indicates a recovery in market trading activity, with the cash market ADT reaching HKD 113.3 billion for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 3% [5]. - The IPO market showed signs of recovery, with 42 companies listed on the main board in the first three quarters, raising HKD 55.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 126% [5]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of HKD 21.927 billion, HKD 23.768 billion, and HKD 26.393 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7%, 8%, and 11% [5][6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be HKD 12.398 billion, HKD 12.980 billion, and HKD 14.324 billion for the same years, with growth rates of 5% for both 2024 and 2025, and 10% for 2026 [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong expectation of performance exceeding the market by over 20% in the next six months [5][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue growth of 120%-125% year-on-year for Q3 2024, with domestic growth at 55%-60% and overseas growth at 440%-445% [5]. - The expansion strategy in North America and Southeast Asia is showing strong results, with North American stores achieving approximately 15 million yuan in half-year revenue per store, and Southeast Asia demonstrating high store efficiency [5]. - The company is expected to continue its trend of accelerating revenue growth through the successful monetization of high-value IP and the introduction of new products [5]. Financial Data Summary - Revenue projections for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 12,633 million yuan, 16,992 million yuan, and 21,101 million yuan respectively, reflecting a growth rate of 100%, 35%, and 24% year-on-year [4][7]. - Non-IFRS net profit estimates for the same years are 2,824 million yuan, 3,828 million yuan, and 4,874 million yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 138%, 36%, and 27% [4][7]. - The company's gross profit for 2024E is projected at 8,394 million yuan, with a gross margin improvement expected due to the increasing share of high-margin overseas business [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [2]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 2024 sales performance met expectations, with a slight decline in overall retail sales, while e-commerce channels showed growth [2]. - The company has established a joint venture to expand its overseas market presence, with a total investment of HKD 58 million, which is expected to have minimal short-term financial impact but aims for long-term growth [2]. - The company continues to focus on its core sports segment, with strong brand recognition and product development capabilities, projecting net profits of RMB 31 billion, 33 billion, and 36 billion for 2024-2026 [2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price: HKD 16.06 - Market capitalization: HKD 415.07 billion - 52-week high/low: HKD 31.65/12.56 [1]. Sales Performance - Q3 2024 retail sales (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) saw a mid-single-digit decline year-on-year, with offline channels experiencing a higher decline compared to e-commerce, which grew in the mid-single digits [2]. - The company reported a healthy inventory level with a stock-to-sales ratio of approximately 5 months, slightly above the previous year [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for FY2024E to FY2026E are RMB 27.75 billion, RMB 29.20 billion, and RMB 30.98 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 30.96 billion, RMB 33.34 billion, and RMB 35.56 billion [3][6]. - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 49.5% to 49.6% over the next few years [3]. Operational Adjustments - The company is optimizing its offline store network, with a net increase of 42 stores in the first three quarters of 2024, while planning to open over 100 stores in lower-tier cities [2]. - The company is also focusing on enhancing its product offerings, particularly in the running shoe category, which has shown strong growth [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 80 HKD [7][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue growth of 120-125% year-on-year for Q3, driven by strong performance in new product categories and rapid expansion in overseas markets [1][2]. - The domestic revenue growth was 55-60%, with notable contributions from the new plush toy category and successful IP launches [2]. - The overseas revenue saw an impressive increase of 440-445%, primarily due to strong store performance in Southeast Asia and online sales growth [3]. Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - The company achieved a revenue increase of 120-125% in Q3, exceeding market expectations, with domestic revenue growing by 55-60% and overseas revenue by 440-445% [1]. - New product categories, particularly the plush toys, and the expansion into Southeast Asian and North American markets contributed significantly to this growth [1]. Domestic Business Growth - The domestic revenue growth of 55-60% was attributed to the rapid rollout of plush toys and successful sales from new IPs [2]. - Offline channels, including retail stores and robot stores, experienced growth rates of 30-35% and 20-25%, respectively, while online channels saw a 55-60% increase [2]. Overseas Expansion - The overseas revenue growth of 440-445% was driven by the addition of numerous new stores, particularly in Southeast Asia, where store count increased by 80-90% year-on-year [3]. - The company achieved record sales during the back-to-school season in the U.S. through TikTok, indicating strong performance in the North American market [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued high growth in Q4, with expectations for new product categories and innovative business models to drive future performance [4]. - The expansion in overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and North America, is still in its early stages, suggesting further growth potential [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been raised to 28.6 billion, 38.5 billion, and 48.1 billion RMB, respectively [5]. - The target price is set at 80 HKD, reflecting a 25x adjusted P/E ratio for 2025 [5].