Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an **In-Line** rating for the technology sector, with specific sub-sectors such as **Greater China Technology Semiconductors**, **Electronic Components Japan**, and **IT Hardware** also rated as **In-Line** [1] - The **North America Semiconductors** sector is rated as **Attractive**, indicating a positive outlook for semiconductor companies in this region [1] Core Report Insights - The report highlights a median expectation of **37% Y/Y growth** for NVIDIA-related stocks and **14% Y/Y growth** for non-NVIDIA-related stocks in 2025 [1] - Global cloud capex is expected to grow **20-25% Y/Y** in 2025, significantly higher than the current tracker of **8% growth** [1] - The report introduces a **4 X 4 Matrix** to map out 16 scenarios for cloud capex growth, helping investors assess upside and downside risks for 46 covered stocks [1] Cloud Capex and AI Investment - The report emphasizes the importance of **AI cloud investment**, particularly in areas like **networking**, **CPU servers**, and **utilities**, as the technology landscape evolves [1] - NVIDIA-related capex is projected to grow **37% Y/Y** in 2025, driven by strong demand for AI infrastructure, while non-NVIDIA capex is expected to grow **14% Y/Y** [1] - The report identifies **Wiwynn** and **Advantest** as outliers with significant growth potential in the AI supply chain [1] Key Companies and Stock Implications - **TSMC** is expected to see tight supply for leading-edge foundry capacity in 2025, with potential price hikes for CoWoS capacity by **20%** [9] - **MediaTek** is expanding its partnership with Arm to develop server CPUs, positioning itself as a competitor to NVIDIA in the AI chip market [10] - **Alchip** is projected to see **>50% Y/Y growth** in AWS project revenue, driven by 7nm projects [11] - **Aspeed** is highlighted as a key NVIDIA-related play, with its new AST2700 chip expected to gain traction due to its integration of the LTPI protocol [12] - **Dell Technologies** is positioned to benefit from AI server demand, with **50k HGX AI server builds** expected in 2024, potentially driving **$11B in AI server revenue** in FY25 [14] NVIDIA and Competitors - **NVIDIA** is expected to see **18% Y/Y growth** in datacenter revenue in 2025, driven by strong demand for its Blackwell and Rubin platforms [15] - **Broadcom** is projected to grow its AI exposure, with non-AI semis expected to rebound in late 2025 [16] - **Marvell** is seen as a beneficiary of AI growth but remains **Equal-Weight** due to valuation concerns [17] Networking and Infrastructure - **Cisco** is expected to benefit from networking growth, with a **$1bn FY25 AI order target** [19] - **Arista** is positioned to capture a growing portion of the AI networking opportunity, with an incremental **$5bn AI networking opportunity** by 2027 [21] - **Infinera** and **Ciena** are expected to benefit from increased inter-data center traffic, though growth is seen as a longer-term opportunity [22][20] European Data Center Growth - The European data center market is expected to grow **5x by 2035**, driven by increased cloudification and AI adoption [126] - Key investments include **AWS's $17bn investment** in Spain and **Microsoft's £2.5bn investment** in the UK [126] Conclusion - The report concludes that **cloud capex growth** in 2025 will be driven by both NVIDIA-related and non-NVIDIA-related investments, with significant upside potential for companies in the AI supply chain [1][33]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed investment rating across various sectors, with 38% of stocks rated as Overweight, 46% as Equal-weight, and 16% as Underweight [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant volatility in global equity and fixed income markets, with the S&P 500 index dropping over 6% and Japan's Nikkei 225 index experiencing a 20% decline before recovering [2][3]. - The changing narrative around US economic growth is identified as a core factor driving market volatility, with recent employment data raising concerns about a potential hard landing [3][4]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook has shifted dramatically, with market expectations now pricing in over five rate cuts this year, compared to under two a month ago [3]. - The Bank of Japan's recent hawkish stance has contributed to global market fluctuations, indicating a divergence in monetary policy between the Fed and BoJ [5][6]. - In credit markets, the report suggests that recent weakness in spread products is justified, particularly in high-yield single B bonds, and recommends hedging against hard-landing risks [6]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 indices experienced significant declines in early August, with subsequent recoveries of about half of those losses [2]. - Market volatility remains elevated, with measures such as the VIX and MOVE indices reflecting ongoing uncertainty [2]. Economic Outlook - Economists maintain a base case for a resilient economy achieving a soft landing, expecting continued declines in inflation and three 25bp rate cuts in 2024 [4]. - Labor market data will be closely monitored, with a need for positive indicators to support the soft-landing thesis [4]. Monetary Policy - The Fed's path for monetary policy is under scrutiny, with a notable shift in market expectations regarding rate cuts following recent employment data [3][4]. - The BoJ's hawkish comments have led to a significant unwind of JPY carry trades, impacting global markets [5][6]. Credit Market Analysis - The report suggests that investors should consider hedges against hard-landing risks rather than liquidating cash portfolios, particularly in high-yield credit [6]. - Emerging market sovereign credit is expected to outperform high-yield credit, leading to a shift in preference [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a defensive stance and suggests staying with UST curve steepeners [1] Core Insights - Better-than-expected US data has improved global risk sentiment, reversing some repricing in central bank policies and exchange rates [1][5] - The upcoming US general election is expected to impact the US dollar, with a potential Republican victory likely to strengthen the dollar [1][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring US unemployment claims data as it approaches the reference period for the US establishment survey [5][11] Summary by Sections Interest Rate Strategy - In the US, the strategy includes maintaining UST 2s20s steepeners and re-entering September/November FOMC OIS flatteners [1][30] - The report anticipates a 25bp rate cut by the Fed in September, with discussions around a potential 50bp cut [1][49] Currency & Foreign Exchange - The report expects the USD to strengthen if global growth risks become a focus, particularly related to Republican campaign policies [1][15] - It discusses the implications of upcoming central bank meetings in Sweden and Norway, predicting a cut from the Riksbank and a hold from Norges Bank [1][12] Global Macro Strategy - The report highlights the significance of the US general election polling and its potential impact on market dynamics [1][8] - It notes that the breadth of weakness across industries challenges optimism regarding the labor market, as indicated by the private payroll diffusion index [5][11] Short-Duration Strategy - The report discusses the recent decline in RRP balances and the implications for funding conditions in the money markets [1][182] - It suggests that the risk of reserve scarcity is low into year-end, with expectations for higher reserves [1][191] Market Positioning - The report recommends maintaining short CAD/JPY positions and highlights the potential for further JPY appreciation if US economic data weakens [1][94][157] - It also discusses the positioning of various currencies in response to global economic conditions, emphasizing the bearish outlook for EUR and CAD [1][181]

M Update China Equity Strategy | Asia Pacific August 8, 2024 09:00 PM GMT A-Share Sentiment Fell Sharply Amid Domestic and Global Uncertainty Market sentiment has dropped significantly amid rising global volatility and lackluster macro prints this week. YTD Northbound flow approaches negative, first time in history. We remain relatively cautious given uncertain policy implementation and volatile global macro backdrop. A-share investor sentiment dropped notably vs. prior week: Weighted and simple MSASI dropp ...

M Idea Japan Macro and Equity Strategy | Japan August 8, 2024 06:46 PM GMT Japan Equities and the Yen We update our JPY and equity views on the back of the recent market volatility. We also answer frequently asked questions from both fixed income and equity investors. Key Takeaways Incoming economic data may drive a further unwinding of JPY carry trades/FX- hedged activity from overseas equity investors. We retain a bullish JPY skew. We believe roughly 60% of JPY carry trades unwound, but acknowledge wide e ...

Viewpoint | Citi Research 09 Aug 2024 16:10:46 ET | 25 pages US Economics Weekly Rising unemployment is not "transitory" CITI'S TAKE The rise in the unemployment rate is the clearest sign yet that rather than achieving a "soft landing" the US economy is more likely to slide into recession. Attempts to explain away softer labor market data as a weather- related distortion are reminiscent of claims that elevated inflation would prove to be "transitory." Standard macroeconomics provides a more straightforward ...

Morgan Stanley | RESEARCH August 6, 2024 11:54 PM GMT Japan Economics and Strategy | Asia Pacific Answering your questions on Japan macro developments The US growth scare coupled with a hawkish BoJ have contributed to high volatility in Japan's asset markets. We assess what recent volatility means for our views on Japan's macro and markets. We address key investor questions received over the past 48 hours. Key questions we are addressing in this report: 1) What is our read on the recent US data? 2) What is ...

Viewpoint | Citi Research 12 Aug 2024 03:13:20 ET | 26 pages UK Economics July Inflation Preview – Undershoots now, further questions into August CITI'S TAKE We expect the slew of data this week to show UK disinflation to be broadly on track. Friday's growth data will we think indicate an ongoing, supply-led recovery. We expect the labour market to have continued to soften, although uncertainties around the LFS will still merit caution. On the inflation side, we expect a downside surprise, with services inf ...

Viewpoint | Citi Research 11 Aug 2024 20:07:29 ET | 9 pages European Economics Week Ahead Week of 12 August CITI'S TAKE The data in Europe may continue to play second fiddle to global market developments next week. Nonetheless, a slew of top tier data in the UK – including inflation and labour market releases, merit close attention. ZEW investor expectations, the only relevant Eurozone data out next week, likely turned down in August, on market risk-off moves and global growth concerns. In the Scandies, the ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies within it [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report discusses key macro events for the week ahead, including central bank meetings and economic data releases, indicating a cautious market outlook [6][8]. - It highlights that inflation has fallen below central bank forecasts but remains above targets, which may influence central bank decisions [8]. - The report suggests that the market may be underestimating the potential for earlier rate cuts by central banks, particularly the Norges Bank [8]. Weekly Highlights - The report notes that August often marks a peak in richness for Bunds, indicating potential market dynamics to watch [10]. - It emphasizes that market pricing is skewed towards a front-loaded cycle for interest rate changes, with implications for future monetary policy [12]. - The report provides expectations for EGB spreads under different economic scenarios, indicating a current BTP-Bund spread of 143 basis points [13]. Supply Insights - The report outlines upcoming supply from various countries, including Germany and France, with specific issuance details such as the size and type of bonds [20][21]. - It mentions that the UK DMO will issue £3 billion of 3.75% gilt Jan38s, indicating active market participation [20]. - The report includes RV metrics for this week's nominal auctions, providing insights into valuation and yield changes [22][23].