Viewpoint | Citi Research 11 Aug 2024 20:45:32 ET | 11 pages Global FX Strategy Still all about risk CITI'S TAKE Recent developments accelerated our bearish view on risk and drove unwinds in crowded FX positions. This creates a cleaner setup into upcoming catalysts but keeps focus squarely on the risk backdrop for G10 FX. In this context, we think US initial claims and retail sales matter more than CPI. Daniel Tobon Ac +1-212-816-8340 daniel.tobon@citi.com Brian Levine AC +1-212-816-6896 brian.levine@citi.c ...

Investment Rating - The report has downgraded Emerging Market (EM) equities to Underweight in a global context due to growing macro headwinds and increased risks associated with the potential re-election of Trump [4][6]. Core Insights - The MSCI EM index is currently about 10% off its highs, with a projected upside of approximately 8% to a target of 1130 by mid-2025, based on an expected 8% EPS growth and flat valuations [4][7]. - The report emphasizes a tilt towards quality in EM country strategy, favoring India and Taiwan while being Underweight on Brazil and downgrading Korea to Neutral [4][10]. - The political landscape in the US, particularly the potential for a Trump 2.0 scenario, poses significant risks for EM equities, especially for countries like China and Brazil, which are more exposed to US trade policies [9][20]. Summary by Sections EM Equity Strategy - The report summarizes top-down views and insights from various strategists, indicating that recent market corrections have led to a more realistic pricing of EPS outcomes in EM [4][5]. - The report suggests that while the worst may be behind, volatility is expected to persist as market positioning has not fully unwound [4][5]. Key Theme: Trump 2.0 - The US political backdrop is fluid, with prediction markets assigning a roughly 50% chance of a Trump win, which could lead to heightened trade policy uncertainty and negatively impact EM equities [9][22]. - The report highlights that approximately 13% of MSCI EM revenues come from the US, with significant exposure in Asia Tech, making markets like India and Mexico appear less vulnerable to Trump-related risks [9][37]. EM Allocation Model - The allocation model reflects a preference for quality and defensiveness, with Overweight positions in the US and specific EM countries, while downgrading others based on macroeconomic conditions and election-related risks [6][10]. - The report indicates a shift towards sectors and regions with strong EPS momentum, particularly in India and Taiwan, while downgrading Korea and Brazil [10][14]. Quantitative Strategy - The report notes that despite the recent sell-off, the MSCI EM is trading at a forward PE of 12x, near its long-term average, suggesting that EM equities remain relatively cheap compared to developed markets [7][46]. - EPS growth forecasts for 2024 are stronger in EM compared to developed markets, with a focus on sectors like technology and basic materials [43][51]. EM Countries: Insights from Local Strategists - Country preferences are adjusted based on EPS momentum and exposure to US economic conditions, with upgrades for Poland and downgrades for China and Brazil [10][14]. - The report emphasizes that while Korea shows EPS recovery, its cyclical characteristics and exposure to Trump risks warrant a Neutral rating [14][69].

CitiFX Wire Market Commentary - FXLM - Intended for Institutional clients only Europe Open - Gentle breeze By Naveen Nair A quieter day for markets in Asia with Japan observing a local holiday. Interbank FX volumes are ~60% lower than 30d averages according to our etraders. DXY trades flat, with JPY down 0.4% on the day though we flag no news behind this. The rest of the G10 FX complex trade in tight ranges. Elsewhere, US stock futures are flat, while cash US treasuries are closed on account of the Japan ho ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or companies discussed [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that US core CPI data may provide some comfort to Federal Reserve officials while keeping them focused on labor and economic trends [2][3] - Key economic indicators to watch include US retail sales, consumer earnings, and jobless claims, which will be critical in assessing economic health [2] - Geopolitical factors are noted as ongoing risks, particularly in relation to Chinese equity earnings and US political developments [2] Summary by Relevant Sections Economic Indicators - US core CPI is expected to influence Fed policy, with retail sales and jobless claims being significant indicators for the week [2] - In the G10 region, the RBNZ and Norges Bank may adopt dovish stances due to macroeconomic conditions [2][3] - Chinese economic data, particularly equity earnings, will be crucial for local sentiment [2] Market Commentary - The report discusses the potential for a dovish shift in monetary policy from central banks in response to economic conditions [2][3] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring labor market data, including initial and continuing jobless claims, as they may indicate rising unemployment risks [2][3] Currency and Trade Insights - The report notes expected changes in various currencies, with specific attention to the Eurozone and G10 currencies [2][3] - It highlights the anticipated trade balance for Indonesia, projecting a surplus increase due to resumed exports [2][3]

W BARCLAYS Equity Research 12 August 2024 European Morning Research Summary Company Research Ageas N.V. (AGES.BR) Buzzi SpA (BZU.MI) Freenet (FNTGn.DE) Jungheinrich (JUNG_p.DE) Rightmove PIc (RMV.L) Unipol (UNPI.MI) ASML Holding NV (ASML AS) ENAV (ENAV.MI) Generali (GASI.MI) Lanxess (LXSG.DE) Spire Healthcare Group PLC (SPI.L) Ypsomed Holding AG (YPSN.S) Bechtle (BC8G.DE) Endeavour Mining (EDV.L) GSK plc (GSK.L) Novo Nordisk (NOVOb.CO) UCB SA (UCB.BR) Industry Research European Banks European Integrated Ene ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a pro-growth tone with expectations of incremental monetary easing, including a forecasted 10-20bps cut in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for the remainder of the year [6][19]. Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) is balancing short-term growth support with long-term risk prevention, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [5][6]. - The PBoC's Monetary Policy Report (MPR) for Q2 2024 emphasizes countercyclical monetary policies to support growth, particularly in the second half of the year [7][8]. - Concerns regarding inflation remain low, with the PBoC expecting a moderate increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a gradual narrowing of Producer Price Index (PPI) contraction [8][9]. - The report highlights a sharp credit slowdown but notes that monetary policy remains supportive, with significant growth in loans to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and manufacturing sectors [9][10]. - The PBoC's relending tool for housing buyback has seen limited progress, with only RMB 24.7 billion extended for housing buyback by the end of June, against a total quota of RMB 300 billion [11][12]. - Concerns about bond yields are explicitly mentioned, with the PBoC noting that the 10-year China Government Bond (CGB) yield has deviated from reasonable levels, indicating accumulated financial risks [14][15]. - The report discusses the external constraints on monetary policy, particularly regarding exchange rate stability and the impact of U.S. monetary policy on the PBoC's decisions [18][19]. - A new monetary policy mechanism is emerging, with the 7-day reverse repo becoming the major policy rate, allowing the PBoC to better manage short-end market rates [20][22]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Outlook - The PBoC is expected to implement incremental easing, with a focus on countercyclical adjustments to support growth [6][7]. - The inflation outlook remains stable, with expectations of moderate CPI increases supported by seasonal consumption patterns [8][9]. Credit and Lending Environment - Total Social Financing (TSF) grew by 8.1% year-on-year, with M2 growth at 6.2% as of June, indicating a reasonable growth in financial aggregates [9][10]. - Lending rates have reached all-time lows, with the average loan rate at 3.68% in June, which may lead to increased mortgage prepayments [10][11]. Property Market Support - The PBoC's efforts in the housing market through relending tools have been slow, with only a fraction of the total quota utilized [11][12]. - The report suggests that more focused support may be necessary to address ongoing challenges in the property market [12][13]. Bond Market Concerns - The PBoC has expressed concerns about the rising bond yields and the associated financial risks, indicating a need for careful monitoring [14][15]. - The report suggests that while the PBoC's concerns are valid, the effectiveness of its measures to influence long-term yields remains uncertain [15][19]. New Monetary Policy Framework - The report outlines a shift towards a new interest rate framework, with the 7-day reverse repo as the primary policy tool, indicating a simplification of the interest rate system [20][22]. - The coexistence of multiple policy rates may create some confusion in the interim, necessitating further adjustments to the monetary policy framework [22][23].

V i e w p o i n t | Prepared for Philip Hu PH Q2 GDP & BSP Cut in August; CN Deflationary Concerns 11 Aug 2024 23:13:19 ET │ 14 pages CITI'S TAKE EM Asia Economics & Strategy Philippines: Q2 GDP was fairly healthy but not strong enough to delay policy rate cut in August; China: A Seasonal Beat Does Not Ease Deflationary Concerns; Upcoming Events: IN Jul CPI (Citi: 3.8%YY, Mkt: 3.60%, Prior: 5.08%) & IP, GE Current account balance Johanna Chua AC +852-2501-2357 johanna.chua@citi.com Philip Yin Samiran Chakra ...

Investment Ratings - Array Technologies, Inc. (ARRY): Overweight [2] - Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC): Overweight [2] - Hanesbrands Inc. (HBI): Equal Weight [2] - Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN): Equal Weight [2] - Latham Group, Inc. (SWIM): Equal Weight [2] - OptimizeRx (OPRX): Equal Weight [2] - American Axle & Mfg. (AXL): Equal Weight [2] - Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN): Overweight [2] - FIGS, Inc. (FIGS): Equal Weight [2] - Fluence Energy (FLNC): Overweight [2] - JELD-WEN Holding, Inc. (JELD): Equal Weight [2] - TruBridge, Inc. (TBRG): Equal Weight [2] Core Insights - The report indicates a generally positive outlook for the industries covered, with several companies receiving an Overweight rating, suggesting expected outperformance relative to their peers [2][7][16] - Revenue guidance adjustments were noted for several companies, with Array Technologies reducing its FY24 revenue guidance by approximately 30% due to backlog pushouts [22] - Fluence Energy reported solid bookings and a revenue beat, indicating growth visibility despite lower average selling prices [23] - Hanesbrands is refocusing on its core innerwear business following the divestiture of Champion, which is expected to improve margins [27] Summary by Company Array Technologies, Inc. (ARRY) - Stock Rating: Overweight - Price Target: USD 11.00 - EPS FY1 (E): 0.69, EPS FY2 (E): 1.21 - Market Cap: USD 1.0787 billion - Key Insights: New FY24 revenue guidance cut by ~30% due to backlog pushouts [22] Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC) - Stock Rating: Overweight - Price Target: USD 6.00 - EPS FY1 (E): -0.04, EPS FY2 (E): 0.70 - Market Cap: USD 0.6981 billion - Key Insights: Weak Q3 pretax margin guidance but potential for positive RASM [16] Hanesbrands Inc. (HBI) - Stock Rating: Equal Weight - Price Target: USD 6.00 - EPS FY1 (E): 0.35, EPS FY2 (E): 0.61 - Market Cap: USD 2.1418 billion - Key Insights: Focus on core business expected to improve margins [27] Hillman Solutions Corp (HLMN) - Stock Rating: Equal Weight - Price Target: USD 10.00 - EPS FY1 (E): 0.50, EPS FY2 (E): 0.51 - Market Cap: USD 1.8307 billion - Key Insights: Strong margins and adjusted EBITDA guidance despite a weaker top line [16] Latham Group, Inc. (SWIM) - Stock Rating: Equal Weight - Price Target: USD 6.00 - EPS FY1 (E): 0.09, EPS FY2 (E): 0.17 - Market Cap: USD 0.6126 billion - Key Insights: Earnings growth driven by cost initiatives [19] OptimizeRx (OPRX) - Stock Rating: Equal Weight - Price Target: USD 11.00 - EPS FY1 (E): 0.35, EPS FY2 (E): 0.55 - Market Cap: USD 0.1531 billion - Key Insights: Revenue miss attributed to deal timing delay [12] Aspen Aerogels Inc. (ASPN) - Stock Rating: Overweight - Price Target: USD 27.00 - EPS FY1 (E): 0.29, EPS FY2 (E): 0.62 - Market Cap: USD 1.6842 billion - Key Insights: Convincing earnings beat and growth visibility [10] Fluence Energy (FLNC) - Stock Rating: Overweight - Price Target: USD 28.00 - EPS FY1 (E): 0.34, EPS FY2 (E): 0.98 - Market Cap: USD 2.933 billion - Key Insights: Record bookings and solid revenue beat [23] JELD-WEN Holding, Inc. (JELD) - Stock Rating: Equal Weight - Price Target: USD 13.00 - EPS FY1 (E): 1.30, EPS FY2 (E): 1.42 - Market Cap: USD 1.1971 billion - Key Insights: Cost efforts expected to drive structural savings [18] TruBridge, Inc. (TBRG) - Stock Rating: Equal Weight - Price Target: USD 10.00 - EPS FY1 (E): -0.40, EPS FY2 (E): 0.04 - Market Cap: USD 0.1886 billion - Key Insights: High-margin EHR license sale reported [13]

® BARCLAYS Equity Research 12 August 2024 Americas Morning Research Summary Summary of Changes | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------|-------|--------------|--------------------|--------|-------|-------------------|-------------------|-------| | Target Price Changes | | Old | Rating \nNew | Price Target \nOld | New | Old | EPS FY1 (E) \nNew | EPS FY2 (E) \nOld | New | | Array Technologies, Inc. | ARRY | OW | OW | 18.00 | 11.00 | 1.05 | 0.69 | 1 ...

Equity Research Report Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK) July: Changes in Product Mix Impacted CCM Shipments Huatai ResearchCompany Update 13 August 2024 | China (Hong Kong)Electrical Components Our core views: handset lens grew robustly, CCM shipments fell On 9 August 2024, Sunny Optical (Sunny) released its shipment data for July. The handset CCMlens shipment volumes changed by -19.5/+20.7% yoy or +5.5/+6.1% mom. Management commented in the announcement that growth in handset lens shipments was mai ...