ab 12 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Australian Banks Capital returns are possibly mispriced | --- | --- | |-------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Equities | | | | | | Australasia | | | Financial | | Dividends/buybacks/excess capital an underpin for Aussie bank share prices? We analyse how much excess capital the banks carry and if this is potentially a further underpin to share price performance, especially in the context of valuations which we continue to view as rich relative to h ...

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Equities Prices: Iron Ore 62% cfr Qingdao -0.5% $99/dmt; HCC prem LV -1.2% $212/t; Thermal Coal NEWC +0.5% $147/t; Spodumene CIF China -4.7% $810/t; Li Carbonate Battery Grade, CIF China 0.0% $12000/t; Li Hydroxide Battery Grade, CIF China +0.9% $11600/t; Cu +1.8% $4.04/lb; Al +0.1% $1.02/lb; Ni +1.3% $7.30/lb; Au +1.2% $2504/oz; Brent +2.9% $82/bbl; WTI 0.0% $77/bbl; AUDUSD 0.6586; AUDEUR 0.6025; AUDGBP 0.5159; AUDJPY 96.95 Bulks: Iron Ore -0.5% to US$99/t ...

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab First Read Swire Properties MSCI deletion as expected; good opportunity may have emerged What's new? In this morning, MSCI announced to delete Swire Properties (Swire) from the MSCI index and the changes will be effective at the close of 30 Aug. The deletion was in-line with our previous expectation, as its free float adjusted market cap has fallen below the required relative threshold size. UBS index team forecast US$127mn (or 69.6mn shares) will be sold o ...

ab 12 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Beach Energy Limited FY24 result: FCF must support capital returns & growth Another frustrating reserve d/grade but FCF can support growth and divs Beach Energy's (BPT) FY24 NPAT beat consensus estimates by 7%; however the financial performance was overwhelmed by another material reserve downgrade. Reserves at the new Enterprise gas field in the VIC Otways saw an 11mmboe reserve revision (-27% to the implied VIC Otway reserve), following new flow data indic ...

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Powered by YES UBS Evidence Lab 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 91% 95% 76% 93% 87% 112% 97% 130% 79% 75% 134% 49% 71% 103% 82% 70% 31% 24% JapanKorea Thailand Hong KongEUSingaporeMacaoMalaysiaVietnamAustraliaUKRussia The PhilippinesIndonesiaUAECambodiaUS Int'l flight volumes Overall int'l flights recovery vs.2019 vs.2019 (RHS) 11% 2% 2% 8% Southeast Asia East Asia Europe Oceania North America other 42% 35% Overall int'l ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Far East Horizon, citing an attractive dividend yield of 9.3% and limited downside risk to the absolute dividend per share (DPS) amount [1][6]. Core Insights - Far East Horizon's net profit for 1H24 was Rmb2,085 million, representing a 32% year-over-year decline, largely attributed to non-core items such as investment-related income and taxes [1][6]. - The company declared its first interim dividend of HK$0.25 per share, with a payout ratio of 47%, indicating a commitment to maintain the FY24 DPS at HK$0.50 despite earnings challenges [1][6]. - The easing of first-home mortgage criteria in Chengdu is expected to stimulate housing demand, allowing buyers with multiple properties to benefit from favorable mortgage policies [1][2]. Summary by Sections Far East Horizon Financial Performance - Reported a net profit of Rmb2,085 million in 1H24, down 32% YoY and 33% HoH, missing expectations [1]. - Operating profits before provisions decreased by 8% YoY, which is more aligned with a 4% contraction in average interest-earning assets [1]. - The company plans to maintain its DPS at HK$0.50 for FY24, despite the earnings decline [1]. Residential Foreclosure Market - The number of listed residential foreclosure houses increased by over 12% YoY in H124, reaching 202,000 units [2]. - Notable increases in tier-2 cities, with Zhengzhou seeing a 43% YoY rise in listed units [2]. - The average transaction price for residential foreclosure houses was Rmb9,084 per square meter, down 6.7% YoY [2]. Mortgage Policy Changes - Chengdu has eased criteria for first-home purchases, allowing buyers with a second house listed for sale to qualify for favorable mortgage terms [1][2]. - The new rules are effective from August 13, 2024, potentially boosting housing market activity [1][2]. Valuation Summary for China Banks - Various banks are rated as "Buy," "Neutral," or "Sell," with specific price targets and implied upside percentages provided [6][7]. - For instance, BOC is rated "Buy" with a price target of HK$4.20, implying a 23.5% upside [6][7]. - The average dividend yield for H-share banks is noted at 7.7%, with varying growth rates projected for EPS in 2024 and 2025 [6][7].

Global Commodities Northern summer energy demand drives down global commodity availability - in fundamental contrast to the BCOM crunch • Global commodity inventory availability declined by -0.9% MOM through July to a three-month low of 64.3 days-of-use, from 64.9 days-ofuse in June, as rising energy demand through the Northern summer and declining crude & product inventories weighed on availability. On an ExChina basis (Ex-China CIM), the monitor, which is a proxy for globally tradeable inventories, was st ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Sydney City Fringe office market, highlighting strong demand and limited supply as key factors driving investment interest. Core Insights - The Sydney City Fringe is increasingly becoming a preferred destination for occupiers and investors due to its favorable demographic profile and proximity to major health and education precincts [2][12] - There is a significant undersupply of prime office stock in the fringe, with prime grade space accounting for under 40% of total stock compared to 64% in the CBD [8][12] - Overall vacancy rates in the fringe markets are tracking below those in the Sydney CBD, indicating strong occupier demand [13][14] - The rental gap between fringe locations and the CBD is narrowing, with current discounts significantly reduced from previous years [14][15] Summary by Sections Economic Drivers - The gross regional product in the City of Sydney reached $141.7 billion in 2023, with a growth rate of 3.4% per annum over the past two decades, significantly outpacing Greater Sydney's growth [4][5] - Population growth in inner Sydney has been robust, with a 53% increase over the past 20 years, compared to 29% for Greater Sydney [5][6] Demographics - The city fringe has a relatively young and highly educated population, with over 42% aged between 20 and 34 years and around half holding a bachelor's degree [7] - High-income earners are more prevalent in the fringe, with 20% of residents in Darlinghurst earning over $3,000 weekly, compared to 7.5% for Greater Sydney [7] Supply and Demand - The development pipeline in the fringe is limited, with only boutique projects anticipated, leading to a continued undersupply of prime office space [9][10] - Recent developments have shown strong pre-commitment rates, indicating a healthy demand for new quality office spaces [9] Rental Trends - Average net face rents for prime space range between $700 and $1,000 per square meter, with Surry Hills experiencing a 4.5% growth over the past year [14] - The current rental discount between Surry Hills and the CBD is 38%, down from 50% in 2017, indicating a tightening rental market [14] Investment Activity - Investment volumes in 2023 were subdued at $98.3 million, but activity has improved in 2024 with transactions totaling $135 million [17][19] - Prime office yields in the fringe markets range between 6.00% and 7.50%, with strong interest in high-quality assets [18] Future Outlook - The report anticipates further rental growth as occupier demand remains strong amidst limited new supply, with the potential for the fringe markets to mature and evolve [15][20]

Strong cities City attractiveness, office market, HR trends Q1 2024 knightfrank.com.pl/en/research Prepared in cooperation with The office market sentiment, the investment potential of the city and the labour market. Wrocław CITY ATTRACTIVENESS Wrocław 293 sq km City area Population 674,100 (30.06.2023, GUS) Population forecast 611,359 (2030) 577,658 (2050) Migration balance (+) 1.4 (12.2021) Unemployment rate 1.7% (02.2024, GUS) GDP growth 8.5% GDP per capita PLN 104,360 (gross) Average salary (gross) PLN ...

Retail Sales Dashboard June 2024 A monthly overview of UK retail sales performance, including key metrics on core sub-sectors and e-commerce. Headline Figures 0.1%0 Sales value (amount spent) growth June 2024 vs. June 2023 *Seasonally adjusted, excluding fuel Including fuel +0.6% 00:W0 Sales volume (items purchased) growth June 2024 vs. June 2023 *Seasonally adjusted, excluding fuel Including fuel -0.2% +0.590 Sales value (amount spent) growth Most recent 3 months YoY growth Sales volume (items purchased) g ...