Global Commodities:Northern summer energy demand drives down global commodity availability ~ in fundamental contrast to the BCOM crunch
J.P.Morgan· 2024-08-12 10:02
Global Commodities Northern summer energy demand drives down global commodity availability - in fundamental contrast to the BCOM crunch • Global commodity inventory availability declined by -0.9% MOM through July to a three-month low of 64.3 days-of-use, from 64.9 days-ofuse in June, as rising energy demand through the Northern summer and declining crude & product inventories weighed on availability. On an ExChina basis (Ex-China CIM), the monitor, which is a proxy for globally tradeable inventories, was st ...
Sydney City Fringe Office Market
Knight Frank· 2024-08-12 10:02
Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Sydney City Fringe office market, highlighting strong demand and limited supply as key factors driving investment interest. Core Insights - The Sydney City Fringe is increasingly becoming a preferred destination for occupiers and investors due to its favorable demographic profile and proximity to major health and education precincts [2][12] - There is a significant undersupply of prime office stock in the fringe, with prime grade space accounting for under 40% of total stock compared to 64% in the CBD [8][12] - Overall vacancy rates in the fringe markets are tracking below those in the Sydney CBD, indicating strong occupier demand [13][14] - The rental gap between fringe locations and the CBD is narrowing, with current discounts significantly reduced from previous years [14][15] Summary by Sections Economic Drivers - The gross regional product in the City of Sydney reached $141.7 billion in 2023, with a growth rate of 3.4% per annum over the past two decades, significantly outpacing Greater Sydney's growth [4][5] - Population growth in inner Sydney has been robust, with a 53% increase over the past 20 years, compared to 29% for Greater Sydney [5][6] Demographics - The city fringe has a relatively young and highly educated population, with over 42% aged between 20 and 34 years and around half holding a bachelor's degree [7] - High-income earners are more prevalent in the fringe, with 20% of residents in Darlinghurst earning over $3,000 weekly, compared to 7.5% for Greater Sydney [7] Supply and Demand - The development pipeline in the fringe is limited, with only boutique projects anticipated, leading to a continued undersupply of prime office space [9][10] - Recent developments have shown strong pre-commitment rates, indicating a healthy demand for new quality office spaces [9] Rental Trends - Average net face rents for prime space range between $700 and $1,000 per square meter, with Surry Hills experiencing a 4.5% growth over the past year [14] - The current rental discount between Surry Hills and the CBD is 38%, down from 50% in 2017, indicating a tightening rental market [14] Investment Activity - Investment volumes in 2023 were subdued at $98.3 million, but activity has improved in 2024 with transactions totaling $135 million [17][19] - Prime office yields in the fringe markets range between 6.00% and 7.50%, with strong interest in high-quality assets [18] Future Outlook - The report anticipates further rental growth as occupier demand remains strong amidst limited new supply, with the potential for the fringe markets to mature and evolve [15][20]
Strong cities:City attractiveness, office market, HR trends
Knight Frank· 2024-08-12 10:01
Strong cities City attractiveness, office market, HR trends Q1 2024 knightfrank.com.pl/en/research Prepared in cooperation with The office market sentiment, the investment potential of the city and the labour market. Wrocław CITY ATTRACTIVENESS Wrocław 293 sq km City area Population 674,100 (30.06.2023, GUS) Population forecast 611,359 (2030) 577,658 (2050) Migration balance (+) 1.4 (12.2021) Unemployment rate 1.7% (02.2024, GUS) GDP growth 8.5% GDP per capita PLN 104,360 (gross) Average salary (gross) PLN ...
UK Retail Sales Dashboard June 2024
Knight Frank· 2024-08-12 10:01
Retail Sales Dashboard June 2024 A monthly overview of UK retail sales performance, including key metrics on core sub-sectors and e-commerce. Headline Figures 0.1%0 Sales value (amount spent) growth June 2024 vs. June 2023 *Seasonally adjusted, excluding fuel Including fuel +0.6% 00:W0 Sales volume (items purchased) growth June 2024 vs. June 2023 *Seasonally adjusted, excluding fuel Including fuel -0.2% +0.590 Sales value (amount spent) growth Most recent 3 months YoY growth Sales volume (items purchased) g ...
Feedstocks for Thought
J.P.Morgan· 2024-08-12 09:58
Feedstocks for Thought European Chemicals | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | European Credit – Basic Resources and General Industrials | | | Ed McGuinness, CFA AC | | | (44-20) 7134-0456 ed.mcguinness ...
Gerdau:“Steel” feeling the import pressure but seeing signs of improvement
J.P.Morgan· 2024-08-12 09:57
Gerdau "Steel" feeling the import pressure but seeing signs of improvement • Results could have been worse given the challenging steel environment. Gerdau's results fared better than what we expected in light of a still challenging environment. While EBITDA did miss expectations, results would have been closer to in line if not for a R$131mm non-recurring effect associated with shut down Brazilian plants. Without this non-recurring item, Brazilian results would have actually grown sequentially with modest m ...
Overview:When direction is clear, it is all about speed and destination
J.P.Morgan· 2024-08-12 09:57
02 August 2024 J P M O R G A N Global Rates Strategy Fabio Bassi AC (44-20) 7134-1989 fabio.bassi@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Elisabetta Ferrara (44-20) 7134-2765 elisabetta.ferrara@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Overview When direction is clear, it is all about speed and destination Increasing confidence on the broad disinflation dynamic across DM has driven a repricing of monetary policy expectations, with a sharp acceleration recently on combination of central bank rhetoric and macro ...
European Derivatives:Navigating an Olympic rally
J.P.Morgan· 2024-08-12 09:57
Alex Pharaon (44-20) 7134-2669 alexander.pharaon@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Global Rates Strategy 02 August 2024 J P M O R G A N Fabio Bassi AC (44-20) 7134-1989 fabio.bassi@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Khagendra Gupta (44-20) 7134-0486 khagendra.x.gupta@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc • Weakening US labour markets, deteriorating global macro backdrop, and geopolitics have all increased the risk-off sentiment. Fuelled by a dovish Fed, yields have rallied sharply over the last ...
For Dollar’s Sake: Emerging Markets Defy De~dollarization
J.P.Morgan· 2024-08-12 09:57
Global Emerging Markets Research 01 August 2024 J P M O R G A N For Dollar's Sake: Emerging Markets Defy De-dollarization • US dollar bank deposits in Emerging Markets are an overlooked but critical barometer of the US dollar's role as a global reserve currency. • This is because dollar-denominated deposits represent the genuine confidence of the private sector in the dollar as a store of value, unlike official holdings, which may be swayed by geopolitical and other non-economic considerations. • Dollar-den ...
Relative Value Single Stock Volatility Ranking:Results for 3M tenor options
J.P.Morgan· 2024-08-12 09:57
Global Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy 1 August 2024 Relative Value Single Stock Volatility Ranking Results for 3M tenor options Global Quantitative and Derivatives Strategy Esmail AfsahAC (44-20) 7742-9231 esmail.afsah@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Davide Silvestrini (44-20) 7134-4082 davide.silvestrini@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies c ...